NFL DFS

DraftKings.com NFL DFS Week 13 Stack Picks for Cash and GPP Lineups

Week 13 of NFL DFS is here, and everyone is looking to cash in on the big money daily fantasy football contests at DraftKings. Every week, we’ll take a look at the top stacks for players over at DraftKings, finding optimal combinations based on matchup, usage, and recent performance, among other noteworthy metrics.

As with any daily fantasy sport, the advice below is relevant for fantasy purposes. A player, stack, or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, gameflow, and more. This is important to keep in mind when constructing a roster.

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Week 13 DraftKings.com NFL DFS Top Stacks

Mitch Trubisky ($4.5K), Dontrelle Inman ($3.9K) vs. SF – GPP
Yesterday, I listed Mitch Trubisky as a top play for this Sunday, as I believe John Fox wants to salvage his job and will lean heavier on his rookie quarterback. San Francisco is bad against the run, ranking 22nd in rush DVOA, but they’re even worse against the pass, landing at 29th in pass DVOA. The majority of players rostering a Bear this weekend will look to Jordan Howard. There’s definitely good reason to consider the lead back. But Chicago is just a -1.5-point favorite against the 49ers at home, suggesting Vegas doesn’t think this game will necessarily be one the Bears find a way to control.

And if we like Trubisky to throw, we have to find someone who will catch it. Enter Dontrelle Inman, who saw nine targets last week and has averaged over seven targets per game in his last three outings. You could go Tarik Cohen here, but his value in the passing game has been mostly nonexistent since the demotion of Mike Glennon.

Josh McCown ($5.5K), Jermaine Kearse ($4.3K) vs. KC – Cash/GPP
These two don’t boast a ton of tournament upside, which has led to Cash relegation. But there isn’t anything wrong with that, and I listed each of these guys in my top plays piece yesterday. Still, Josh McCown and Jermaine Kearse have developed an undeniable rapport, at least when it comes to targets. Kearse has 19 over the past two weeks, and while he’s only hauled in 11 targets, he’s managed a combined 34 DraftKings points over that period.

McCown, meanwhile, hasn’t scored less than 13.48 points in a game since Oct. 1, when he took on the daunting Jacksonville defense. Last week, the veteran racked up just over 29 DK points against the Panthers, and this week he faces a Kansas City team in the middle of one of the more impressive meltdowns in recent memory. While McCown doesn’t have tremendous upside, even in light of his recent performance, he does have a very high floor. I love the McCown-Kearse combination in Cash lineups, as I expect McCown to once again target Kearse more than any other receiver.

Jameis Winston ($5.6K), Mike Evans ($7.1K) @ GB – GPP
The cloud surrounding Jameis Winston would dissipate at least to some extent with a big game this weekend. The Tampa quarterback sure could use a good game. Against the Green Bay Packers, Winston faces a defense ranking 22nd in pass DVOA, though they rank seventh in rush DVOA. The Bucs will likely, once again, fail to find much success on the ground, resulting in more work from Winston.

Prior to missing time due to a shoulder injury, Winston went the way of his health, unleashing massive games when closer to 100 percent, while dropping several duds when he was clearly playing hurt. This week, I’m assuming he’s closer to 100 percent, as he’s shed his questionable designation. He carries upside in the high-20s.

Meanwhile, Mike Evans has been MIA since Winston’s departure, and that’ll lead many to take the savings to be found in DeSean Jackson. And I like Jackson (read why here), but Evans has the massive upside I want in GPPs. Green Bay ranks 30th in WR1 DVOA, so it doesn’t seem a matter of whether Evans has a good game but just how good of a game can he put together. I think he could be the Julio Jones play of this week — as in, he could unleash a monster game — but I’d like to clarify he doesn’t carry that kind of upside. Still, if anyone’s going to do it, it’s Evans against this bad Packers secondary.

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Drew Brees ($6.5K), Michael Thomas ($6.9K) vs. CAR – Cash
I normally don’t like targeting an offense against the perennially solid Carolina defense, but Josh McCown just torched them a week ago. This week, they head to New Orleans for a road matchup. Drew Brees has been good this season, topping 20 DK points in four out of 11 outings and never scoring fewer than 13.5 DK points in a single week. In a division match up against Carolina, a team Brees dropped 20 DK points against earlier this season, the Saints’ captain is a very safe play, even if he may throw an interception or two against the Cover 3. In fact, I think a few interceptions would improve his upside, as that would allow the Panthers to keep this game close.

For the second half of this stack, I was very tempted to go with Alvin Kamara or even Mark Ingram, but the sheer cost of both those guys, coupled with the RB value this week, makes me wary of paying up in Cash. However, I do like pairing Michael Thomas with Brees. Thomas is clearly New Orleans’ best pass catcher, but Brees does like to move the ball around.

Against a Panthers secondary that ranks 13th or better in WR1, WR2, RB-PA, and TE DVOA, Brees will need to work through his reads. But Thomas managed 87 yards and a touchdown on seven receptions against the Panthers earlier this year, and he should be a nice leverage play considering his ownership will be depressed after back-to-back underwhelming weeks. Oh, he’s also never been priced under $7K this season. Players will shy away from Thomas due to the Panthers’ defense, but you can get him at a crazy-good value here.

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Trevor Siemian ($4.8K), Emmanuel Sanders ($4.9K) – GPP
No one should feel good about rostering the Broncos’ offense, but this might just be the week to do it. Against a terrible Dolphins team that doesn’t really have anything for which to play, Trevor Siemian is a very intriguing option due to his very low salary. Last weekend, Siemian came into the game in relief of an injured Paxton Lynch and proceeded to throw two touchdowns and 149 yards on 11 completions (21 attempts). That is just about as good as it’s going to get out of a backup quarterback in this league.

At just $4.8K, he really doesn’t have to do much to hit value, and I expect he’ll rekindle his connection with Emmanuel Sanders in an effort to get there. Sanders has been tremendously underwhelming this season, and his last three games have all ended with his DK score landing below five points. He’s a very risky play, but again, the Miami defense struggles mightily against the pass. With Demariyus Thomas’ big play ability mostly gone (at least with these quarterbacks throwing to him), there’s no real interest in him on my end. In fact, Thomas didn’t catch a touchdown this season until November, whereas Sanders had a multi-touchdown game in Week 2. While Sanders does carry risk, I have a hard time pinning this mediocre season on him.

Melvin Gordon ($7.4K), Chargers D/ST ($4.0K) vs. CLE – GPP
Josh Gordon or not, this game is only going one way, and that’s with a lot of Melvin Gordon. The Chargers’ lead back is hardly consistent, as he went from dropping back-to-back 36+ point games to scoring in the single digits two of the last five weeks. Now, that may not sound bad, but when you’re paying up for a back, you want a guy who can give you a solid floor. Gordon isn’t always that guy, but in a game where the Chargers are -14 over the Browns, it’s hard to imagine he doesn’t see at least 20 touches this week.

While Cleveland is second in the league in rush DVOA, they are 31st in DVOA against running backs receiving targets. Gordon has transformed into a legit pass-catching threat, even if Austin Ekeler is lingering in the backup role. With back-to-back weeks of 20+ carries, the workload is there for Gordon, and I think his upside, plus the likely gameflow, make him a very interesting GPP play.

But I wouldn’t stop there. If you believe, as I do, that the Chargers will take a commanding and early lead in this game, it would behoove you to take a good look at the Chargers D/ST. Having just one truly bad game this season, the Chargers D/ST has been very consistent, especially when it comes to dominating bad teams. They dropped 25 DK points a few weeks ago against the Bills and held the Cowboys to six real-life points on Thanksgiving. The Cleveland Browns, even with Josh Gordon, aren’t going to see the light of day against this tough Chargers squad.

Other Stacks to Consider:
Alvin Kamara, Saints D/ST
Jameis Winston, DeSean Jackson
Marcus Mariota, Corey Davis
Todd Gurley, L.A. Rams D/ST
Brett Hundley, Jamaal Williams
Joe Flacco, Danny Woodhead
Marshawn Lynch, OAK D/ST

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Nate began playing DFS back in 2013, focusing on low stakes MLB contests over at DraftKings. Now, the vast majority of his DFS time is spent identifying optimal player exposure for NBA and NFL GPPs, though MMA and eSports are his DFS guilty pleasures. With a focus on constant iteration, Nate spends a lot of his non-DFS time reading books and essays by leaders in finance and entrepreneurship for application to his DFS strategies.