Week 14 Draft.com NFL DFS Lineup Picks, Promo Code, and Strategy
Week 14 of NFL DFS is here, and the daily fantasy contests are rocking over at DRAFT. Every week, we’ll bring you our top daily fantasy NFL picks for each position and break them down into shallow and deep draft picks.
H2H and Three-Team draft choices generally come with less risk and more stable floors, while the best 10-Team plays equal lots of risk and upside. Taking a chance on players with high ceilings and low floors is a good way to separate from the field.
Let’s talk a little more strategy. As with any daily fantasy sport, the advice below is relevant for fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, gameflow, and various other factors. This is important to remember when drafting a roster at all daily fantasy sites.
Best Week 14 NFL DFS DRAFT.com H2H and Three-Team Picks
Tom Brady vs. MIA
Russell Wilson @ JAX
Derek Carr @ KC
Tom Brady led the Pats to yet another win over a divisional opponent last week, although he didn’t throw a TD pass due to a run-heavy approach. This Sunday, New England hosts a Miami team far more vulnerable through the air than on the ground. Brady will likely pile up throwing scores in a better matchup.
The Jaguars’ pass defense is absolutely elite, but Russell Wilson is unlike any QB Jacksonville has faced this year. His mobility allows him to beat teams on the ground or scramble to set up improbable throws that are virtually indefensible. The MVP candidate remains a quality early-round pick regardless of matchup.
Perhaps Derek Carr will slip down to the late rounds of drafts because he’s been relatively quiet of late. He’s still a fantastic option with as much upside as any QB in the right matchup. Kansas City was certainly the right draw for him when he torched the Chiefs for 417 passing yards and three touchdowns in Week 7. Kansas City’s secondary has only gotten worse since then.
Le’Veon Bell vs. BAL
Todd Gurley vs. PHI
Marshawn Lynch @ KC
Kenyan Drake @ MIA
With the Saints’ dynamic duo playing on Thursday night, Le’Veon Bell is clearly the back on Sunday with the most upside and the highest floor as usual. He’s been a machine for the Steelers and stands to see more scoring chances at home where Ben Roethlisberger is far more deadly.
Despite drawing another tough matchup, Todd Gurley is a safe play as the main cog in the Rams’ elite offense. When he struggles to run the ball, Gurley remains involved as a receiver, which allowed him to pile up 156 YFS in Arizona last week. Philadelphia gives up an above average 5.67 receptions per game to opposing RBs because of that elite interior defensive line, which bodes well for Gurley’s prospects as a receiver.
After the initial workhorses listed above, choosing a top RB gets a little trickier on DRAFT this week. Marshawn Lynch stands out as a back who is suddenly seeing a huge increase in touches right in time to thrash a Chiefs team that ranks 31st in DVOA run defense. Kansas City couldn’t stop the lowly Jets last week. Lynch has rushed 43 times for 164 yards and two touchdowns over his last two games and is seeing work in the receiving game too. Oakland is finally giving him a full workload.
Kenyan Drake isn’t nearly as talented as Bell or Gurley. But he’s in a similar situation as a workhorse RB with almost zero competition for touches. Damien Williams (shoulder) should miss another tilt, and Miami would be wise to try and ride Drake on the ground in an effort to keep Tom Brady and the Pats’ offense on the sidelines.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Antonio Brown vs. BAL
Keenan Allen vs. WAS
Travis Kelce vs. OAK
DeAndre Hopkins vs. SF
The Ravens’ defense has improved dramatically, but that doesn’t mean their secondary will be capable of stopping Antonio Brown. The most complete receiver in the game is a matchup nightmare for any unit. Baltimore’s had plenty of trouble against him, yielding 181 yards and two scores to Brown last season.
Keenan Allen continued his torrid run last Sunday, becoming the first player in NFL history with over 10 receptions, 100 yards, and three TDs in a third straight game. He’s clearly a top pick regardless of matchup. And while Washington’s secondary should be good on paper, plus-sized corners Josh Norman and Bashaud Breeland have a tough time covering shifty receivers like Allen, who could also do plenty of damage out of the slot.
DeAndre Hopkins is not a truly elite option as long as he has Tom Savage throwing him the ball. Still, he should be able to get open early and often against San Francisco’s weak secondary. The 49ers rank 27th in DVOA pass defense against the opposition’s top target and 29th in overall pass defense. Hopkins will continue to be a target monster with Will Fuller, Bruce Ellington, Braxton Miller, and C.J. Fiedorowicz all banged up to some degree.
The public might chase Tyreek Hill in a plus matchup against Oakland after his monstrous performance last week. But Travis Kelce seems like an even safer bet against a horrible Raiders defense. Oakland ranks dead last in DVOA pass defense and 25th in DVOA against opposing TEs, while Kelce is rolling right now with five TDs over his last six games.
Best Week 14 NFL DFS 6- to 10-Team League Picks
Matthew Stafford @ TB
Carson Wentz @ LAR
Alex Smith vs. OAK
It’s hard to beat Matthew Stafford’s matchup against Tampa’s 30th-ranked pass defense, but his bruised throwing hand bumps him down to more of a mid- to late-round pick. Still, as long as he’s active, he’ll be worth a look as the maestro of Detroit’s pass-first offense.
Carson Wentz managed to throw for 348 yards and a TD despite his offensive line getting whooped in Seattle on Sunday night. He’s clearly worth taking in another tough road tilt this week. The Rams are third in the NFL in sacks (37), but Wentz arguably has the best pocket presence in the league. He can avoid that pressure while still pushing the ball downfield.
Alex Smith snapped out of a prolonged funk with a big game against the Jets last week. He draws an even better matchup this Sunday at home against the Raiders. Oakland’s been absolutely pathetic against the pass, allowing 20 TDs with just one INT. The veteran Chiefs man threw for 342 yards and 3 scores against that defense in Week 7.
Samaje Perine @ LAC
Dion Lewis vs. MIA
Jamaal Williams @ CLE
Melvin Gordon vs. WAS
Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead are prime candidates to keep rolling as the one-two punch for a Tom Brady-led offense. While Burkhead grabbed the two short rushing TDs last week, Lewis could just as easily get the call on the inevitable scores that Brady and the Pats will set up for their shifty backs.
Melvin Gordon continues to struggle with efficiency, but he’s seeing a ton of volume and is benefiting from positive gameflow since the Chargers’ defense ascended to elite status. Kirk Cousins and the injury-depleted Washington offensive line could be in trouble on the road. That would set up nicely for Gordon to carry the mail after he went for 106 YFS on 23 touches in last week’s win over Cleveland.
With no other RBs available other than practice squad promotee Byron Marshall, Samaje Perine is a relatively safe bet for touches. This is a plus matchup against a Chargers team that’s virtually impossible to pass against but ranks 30th in running DVOA this year.
Even if Aaron Jones (knee) or Ty Montgomery (ribs) gets healthy enough to dress this week, the Packers would be wise to stick with Jamaal Williams as their primary RB. The rookie is hitting the hole decisively, allowing him to rack up 179 yards and two touchdowns over the last two weeks. Up next is a pathetic Browns team that should put the Packers in position to score.
Brandin Cooks @ MIA
Tyreek Hill vs. OAK
Josh Gordon vs. GB
After a quiet game against the Bills, Brandin Cooks is in a smash spot against a Dolphins team that ranks 29th in passing DVOA against opposing top targets. Rob Gronkowski will be suspended this week, which should funnel more targets toward the Patriots’ top receiver.
Tyreek Hill is still definitely worth a look if you pass on Travis Kelce and are looking for a piece of the Chiefs’ offense. The explosive, all-purpose weapon totaled a career-high 185 yards last week and faces a pair of plus-sized cornerbacks on the Raiders. They simply have no shot of containing the ultra-quick Hill.
Josh Gordon looked sharp in his return to action, amassing 85 yards on four receptions while drawing a team-best 11 targets. That came against the Chargers’ elite secondary. Now, he faces a Packers team that ranks 30th in passing DVOA this year, plus the Browns’ weak offense ensures high volume for him.