DraftKings Fantasy Golf Picks & Plays
Welcome back for another week of PGA DFS at DraftKings. It’s @DFSJimmie here to give you the full report on the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at Pebble Beach Golf Links. This week, the tour swings back to California and the iconic trio of Pebble Beach GL, Spyglass Hill, and Monterey Peninsula. It’s a good thing the scenery and California cliffs are gorgeous because the rounds tend to last a really long time around here. Let’s get into it.
The goal is for DFS Report to be your first and last stop for an all-around PGA news source each week … and for free! In case you were wondering, why yes, that is a link to my Twitter profile up there. Give me a follow if you haven’t already. And while you’re at it, go ahead and click the other link up there and add DFS Report to your homepage, and like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. Now, back to your regularly scheduled PGA breakdown.
PGA DFS Contests
FREE DFS MONEY AT DRAFT
Pebble Beach Golf Links is the flagship course this week hosting two of the four rounds. Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula will each host a single round. Golfers and their amateur partners will play 54 holes (one round on each course) with a cut being made on Saturday night to bring the field down to the top 70 (with ties). They go on to play a final round Sunday on Pebble Beach.
Since we have so much variance with the three-course rotation and 54-hole cut this week, I am going to focus more on the number of holes by distance that each golfer plays. Check out the chart below.
As you can see, par 5 scoring is crucial to DK scoring success here as well as taking advantage of the numerous shorter and more technical par 4’s. You can see the in-depth breakdown of each course here.
The courses are not long. Despite the success bombers have had here, you don’t need to be a big hitter to succeed at these venues. On the contrary, it’s all about the approach game and putting.
While the chart above is only for the Pebble Beach course, it gives a good idea of where you should be looking this week in terms of evaluating players.
Quick strategy note: Since this is a Pro-Am with higher-than-usual variance historically, it is best to exercise caution with regard to your bankroll. It is a good week to go a bit lighter.
- Birdie or Better/DK Points
2. Strokes Gained Approach
3. Par 5 Scoring
4. Par 4 < 400 yd Scoring
5. Strokes Gained Putting
PGA DFS Players:
Top Tier: $11.7K – $9K
Jon Rahm ($11.4K) – Jon Rahm continued his rise into golf’s elite with another solid performance at WMPO. Coming off a fifth-place finish here last year and given his current form, expect Rahm to contend throughout the weekend. He’ll certainly be popular on DFS. His game clearly travels well and is suited for any course. He’s always a threat to win.
Rory McIlroy ($11.1K) – Rory McIlroy is making his season debut this side of the Atlantic. He struggled a bit last year, and after tying the knot this off-season and finally getting fully healthy, I look for Rory to make 2018 his year. Rating first overall in my models this week, McIlroy and his lack of course history don’t scare me. We could see Rory come out as the contrarian option up top this week.
Jason Day ($10.9K) – Jason Day comes in fresh off his win at The Farmers and should be right at home walking the fairways of Pebble. His past five years here shook out in finishes of 5/11/4/64/6. Day seems like the obvious play at the bottom of this range and the best overall value for the elites. Day will likely be popular this week for the reasons I just listed, so plan accordingly for GPP exposure. (Note: It is worth following how Day says his back is feeling prior to Thursday.)
Other to consider: Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson, Paul Casey
Mid Tier: $8.9K – $7.5K
Patrick Cantlay ($8.9K) – On paper, this course seems ideally suited for the elite approach game Patrick Cantlay possesses. In his only appearance here back in 2014, he finished ninth. All signs point to Cantlay being a great play on this course if the conditions are as good as predicted. However, if conditions deteriorate, I could see Cantlay struggling a bit on the small greens.
Pat Perez ($8.6K) – Pat Perez just seems to love these shorter coastal tracks, almost like an American version of GMAC with a mullet. Either way, “Patty P” and his PXGs continues to play well. He’s got a chip on is shoulder to prove he belongs with the best on tour. Solid off the tee and great with his irons in the coastal breezes, Perez should continue building upon his past successes at Pebble Beach.
Patrick Reed ($7.9K) – Patrick Reed is starting to pour on the swag game with finishes of 23rd and 17th his last two outings. He’s doing it all with his approach game and putting. Reed has also made five of his last five cuts on this course. Because his short game is so good, he doesn’t have to contend with length off the tee as an obstacle. Reed could pop here; his problem is usually a lackluster Saturday. If he holds steady on Saturday, look out Sunday!
Nick Watney ($7.7K) – Nick Watney definitely belongs in the GPP category here, but I have a feeling he will show up once again at this track. Watney ranks first in approaches in my model this week, coming off three made cuts in a row. Plus, he challenged for a top 20 last week. Yes, his game seems to be rounding into form just in time for his favorite event. He posted a second-place finish in 2016 and a 14th last year. Watney likes this place, and I’m going to get some GPP exposure to him this week.
Others to consider: Chesson Hadley, Matt Kuchar, Brandt Snedeker, Shane Lowry
Value Tier: $7.4K and Lower
Chris Kirk ($7.1K) – Chris Kirk is having a comeback kind of year, and he has previously posted a second place at this track. This week is as good as any to fire up Kirk. Kirk is always a solid putter and relies on his irons, so take some GPP shares of Kirk this week.
Kevin Streelman ($7.3K) – If only the putter would come around for Kevin Streelman, he has been striking the ball great lately with three straight made cuts. Plus, he posted a couple of top 20 finishes here the previous two years. I like Streelman to find his way on the infamous Poa greens. Maybe a few bounces go his way this week and he finds himself in contention late Sunday.
Austin Cook ($7K) – I’m fairly certain the DK pricing algorithm broke here. Cook has been one of the most consistent performers through the swing season. He’s a tour winner with great approaches. At a curiously low $7K, Cook will be chalky but an incredible value.
Matt Jones ($6.8K) – With recent finishes of 23/11/7/45/30, Jones could be a solid contrarian cut maker for your GPP teams.
Others to consider: J.B. Holmes, Charlie Hoffman, Steve Stricker, Vaughn Taylor, Cameron Davis
That does it for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am breakdown. Good luck this week, and I’ll see you next for The Genesis Open where DJ will look defend.
DRAFT DFS NBA CONTESTS
|2 Guards||NO SALARY CAPS|
|2 Forwards||QUICK SNAKE DRAFTS|
|1 Center||Click for FREE $3 entry!|