UFC Fight Night 64: Gonzaga vs. Cro Cop will be held in Poland this Saturday. This is the first time a UFC event has been held in Poland. Only two fights look like we have a clear cut favorite and the rest could really break either way. It looks like it maybe worth while to lock in the best two plays and then pick and choose the other fighters from what should be closely contested matchups throughout the rest of the card. Some fights offer a chance at a quick TKO but deciding which way to lean in those fights will be the biggest challenge. Either way it is looking like a great event to get some DFS action on and hopefully our below plays can guide you to some GPP success.
Odds to win: -550
We start off our plays with the biggest favorite on the card this Saturday. This is a complete no brainer on your KounterMoves card as Joanne is simply underpriced in this fight against Maryna Moroz. On DraftKings it is a little more of a decision since Joanne is easily the highest priced fighter in UFC 64 . Still being the heavy favorite and thinking that if she has a good showing she will be in line for a title shot against Joanna Jedrzejczyk I expect her to perform quite well and end this fight early. This is the perfect way to begin your roster construction as you can almost guarantee solid points right away.
Odds to win: -400
Again this card doesn’t offer many heavy favorites so starting off with both on KounterMoves is definitely the right strategy to implore. DraftKings maybe a little more of a challenge with the top two priced fighters but I think the rest of the card offers enough variance in the pricing to make it work. Sergio should have no problems taking care of Mickael Lebout and the only thing left to debate is whether this fight goes the distance or not. I think we see Sergio score another tap out and end this fight early, making him worth the price and someone that you should definitely be constructing your lineups around.
Odds to win:+150
So that I will not be accused of only taking heavy favorites in my picks column, I offer you the first live dog that I think will prevail at UFC 64, Marcin Bandel. Bandel is a local Polish fighter who should be amped up to perform for his hometown crowd. He is a submission expert who will try to move this match to the mat. His opponent, Stevie Ray, is a late replacement and I am somewhat surprised that he is favored in this fight. If Marcin can move this fight to the ground he has a real good chance of scoring a submission victory as an underdog and someone that I am definitely betting on to outperform his salary.
Odds to win:+155
Sticking with the local Polish fighter theme I think this is actually an interesting play as I think this is more specific to DraftKings then KounterMove. On Kountermove Izabela is priced higher then her opponent, Aleksandra Albu (4600), but is a slight dog in this match. On DraftKings I think this play is quite exploitable and should be used as a way to pay up for some of the heavy favorites. Izabela is also a submission expert and has ended all of her fights with a submission win. I think she continues that streak and is able to overcome the odds to handle Albu.
Odds to win: -200
Although this is not just a specific KounterMove special since both KounterMove and DraftKings offer the full card of events for UFC 64, this is one that i think is definitely exploitable on KounterMove. To put it bluntly, Sheldon is mispriced on KounterMove offering us a favorite odds at such a reduced salary. Even being the favorite he is still priced lower then his opponent Pawel Pawlak. Although this is his welterweight debut I think Sheldon should handle business especially if this fight doesn’t turn into the grappling match that most predict.