We have an eight game MLB night slate to take a look at today with our eyes on the GPPs, so let’s take a look at it. We will start with pitching, discuss some stacks, and move on to some other guys we are trying to fit into our rosters. It’s been a solid start to the season, so let’s keep it going.
Kazmir was really good in his first start. He struck out 10 batters and only allowed one hit and two walks with no runs scored. He gets an Astros line up that has struck out over 10 times per game already on average and is scoring under 2.7 runs per game. He is a -125 favorite with an offense that has put up a lot of runs so far. Kazmir should be in line for a win, a high strikeout game, and very few runs scored against him. The perfect combination of stats for fantasy purposes.
Lester struggled in his first start this season, but now gets to come home and faces a Reds team that has a .205 Batting average against left handed pitching this year with a 30% K rate. The Reds order is top heavy with Left handed bats (Hamilton, Votto) and the right handed bats in good splits match ups are feast or famine (Mesoraco, Frazier). He is a rather large favorite today at -155 and should be able to get back on track).
He is really the only value guys that falls into this category for me today. There’s a lot of guys around the $7000 range I really like too, but they are all secondary to Kazmir in my eyes at the same price point. The As bats have been hitting well and he is an underdog here, but he threw a great game his first time out. He went 6 and ⅔ with five strikeouts, only five base runners, and one earned run. The best part for him today is he is cheap all over.
The most likely chalk stack for the late game is going to the Angels. Ross Detwiler is not a very good pitcher and that ballpark in Texas is pretty hitter friendly. He is also the cheapest pitcher on DK today and many people look at the bottom of the list and stack opponents against that guy. While I think the Angels stack has some merit and there’s a few guys I want to use there, I think we can look at some other stacks that may win us more money today, such as:
Atlanta tagged Mat Latos last week for 7 first inning runs and chased him from the game after 10 batters as he only recorded two outs. While I do not expect them to do that again today, I also do not expect Latos has fixed his issue’s in under a week. He should pitch better, but I still think he gets knocked around a little bit today. The upside to this play is that people still under estimate the 5-0 Atlanta Braves. All those bats are reasonably priced and would allow you to stack them without having to punt pitching or the other bats around them. People may be on them a little because of the last game, but I still love them today for the value they provide and the roster construction they allow me to have.
Mike Leake was like ricky “WILD THING” Vaughn (Preglasses) in his first outing. He labored to get through a few innings and at times looked like he could not find the strike zone. The Cubs did not explode like many expected against the Rockies in Colorado, but I think some of those power bats are in for a nice day today against a guy who tends to miss up in the strike zone. You leave pitches up against a guy like Anthony Rizzo and that ball might not land until tomorrow.
No matter what site you do play on, there’s a limit to how many bats you can take from one team. Therefore while stacking has shown the best results in GPPs, you do need to include a few other guys in that mix. Here’s a couple of guys we have our eye on today who might be the guys you need to work in those line ups.
Longo and teammate Asdrubal Cabrera both have good BvP stats against RA Dickey. I am not a slave to BvP, but when it comes to knuckleballers, there’s very few comparables to look at besides Dickey, so it makes more sense to me in this spot. Cabrera is 4/9 lifetime and Longo is hitting .270 with a few extra base hits in a medium sample size. If anyone is going to produce runs for them, I think it’s the combo in the middle of that order.
I mentioned him briefly already, but think he is in a great spot today against Leake. The upside for me is that he disappointed in Coors field this weekend and will have people saying never again. If I can get a great power bat in a good spot at low ownership, I take that guy everytime to help me differentiate myself in a GPP.
With Arizona seeing a few tough left-handed pitchers recently, Peralta was rested. They get Andrew Cashner today who is a solid righty, but Peralta is only $3700 and should be back in the middle of that order. Peralta had a really solid end to last season and is an under rated OF bat for the Diamondbacks. He can provide you some run producing potential in the middle of that order and has a chance for multiple hits in a good splits match up.
I think you can build a nice line up today around a few of those $7000-$7500 Pitchers. There’s a lot to choose from and my personal recommendation is to find one you like to link with Kazmir who I think is going to be the top stud. If you spend under $15,000 on pitching than you will have a ton of money left over for your bats. Always be mindful of weather and value plays that open up when lineups come out. If you find one cheap bat to link with those two pitchers, you will have well over $4K to spend at every position and can grab a bunch of the top guys. It looks like the Angels bats got the Coors Treatment today from DK. Those prices are insane, so let others stack them and try to find a different way to the top. High ownership and high prices are not the way to build a great roster. Don’t swallow the same chalk as everyone else, but mix a bat or two from there in with the salary you saved elsewhere so you have some exposure. Good luck tonight guys, go get that money.