We only have a small four game slate tonight for MLB DFS purposes. It’s a tough one too, with a lot of warts for the pitchers. I don’t see any real safe options, especially on a two pitcher site. With so few games we will probably have a lot of overlap as well. Definitely a good day to leave a few dollars on the table to try to differentiate your rosters.
He is my favorite play on the day and a guy I think can help you win a GPP. Hamels is a great pitcher. He goes deep into the game, strikes guys out, and limits the damage of the negative scoring events. He is also a pretty big underdog today against a team that has struggled to hit, on the road, in a pitcher’s park. That’s a lot of bumps up for him and he should be lower owned which makes him sneaky. I think Bum is overpriced today although the likely highest owned pitcher in a low total game in SF, so this is the swerve.
I’m going back to the Bradley well here today. Dude has top of the rotation type stuff and gets a park bump as they move to San Fran for this second start. He was nasty in his first go, with 6 innings of shutout ball a few K’s and very few base runners allowed. He pitches in a low total game today as a heavy dg, but at his low price around the industry, he does not need much to pay it off.
Chalk: I think Toronto and Tampa Bay are going to be well represented here today with their game being in the Roger’s Centre up in Toronto. Toronto has more big bats, but Archer is not a gas can for TB. Sanchez is a highly touted prospect for the Blue Jays, butI think his bad first start will push people to use the Rays against him heavily.
Value: To try and be different, I would not hesitate to roll out either the Marlins or the MEts today. The two pitchers I want to target outside of Toronto are Cosart and Gee. Whichever way you think that game goes is the under the radar play for today. I do not like Bum, but would not target against him. Same goes for Fister, Hamels, and Bradley. That literally only leaves us the games in Toronto and New York to look at.
No matter what site you do play on, there’s a limit to how many bats you can take from one team. Therefore while stacking has shown the best results in GPPs, you do need to include a few other guys in that mix. Here’s a couple of guys we have our eye on today who might be the guys you need to work in those line ups.
3b for the Rays gets a young lefty in a hitters ballpark to tee off on. Longo is a proven masher of LHP and has the power and line up placement we like. You need some exposure to this game and he is the way I am looking to do it.
I see some nice options at 2b around the $4K price range which means he should go low owned. The Lefty gets a decent match up with Gee and should be able to steal if he gets on vs. D’Arnaud. Most people will be shying away from this game as well to look at Toronto, so he is lower owned and has more upside than others at the position.
Trumbo is only $3600 on DK today and I guy who should be hitting fourth against the lefty. Not the best park and not an easy match up, but definitely a lower owned option with upside to differentiate yourself.
There’s not a lot of ways to go, but let me lay out a few scenario’s. On DK you can not afford to stack the Jays and the top pitchers, so I think we see a lot of Archie Bradley to make those Jays stacks work. They also likely will need to come off Bum and Hamels to do so, which makes both go lower owned. You can’t stack Jays and use Archer, so I think Bradley and/or the Mets/Marlins pitchers will be popular.
You can however stack Tampa Bay bats and still pay up for EITHER Bum or Hamels, but not both. My guess is people gravitate towards Bumgarner who is a heavy home favorite for his start. That likely makes Arizona bats low owned if you want to include one or two to differentite yourself.
The most likely outcome tonight is three low scoring games with bats from Washington vs. Hamels, Phillies vs. Fister, and Arizona vs. Bumgarner going lowest owned. It’s a small slate so there’s going to be a lot of overlap and roster duplicity in these large fields. Again I want to stress the importance of thinking differently tonight. ven if Blue Jays/Rays is high scoring, there’s going to be a lot of people on those bats, so it will come down to nailing your pitching and the othr guys you mix in from other games.