I hope you all have had an awesome, profitable week. I look forward to providing insight into the day’s games and hopefully enough to get each and every one of you “in the money” at the end of the day. I can be found on FanDuel and DraftKings as “bravesbaseball12” and on Twitter @tbadger23. Please provide feedback on this MLB Daily Plays so I can meet your needs and continue to improve it! Let’s get started!
Boston @ Baltimore (-105) – Over/Under: 8.5
Atlanta (-110) @ Philadelphia – Over/Under: 7.5
St. Louis (-150) @ Milwaukee – Over/Under: 7.5
San Francisco @ Colorado (-129) – Over/Under: 10.0
Pittsburgh (-127) @ Arizona – Over/Under: 9.0
Los Angeles Dodgers (-115) @ San Diego – Over/Under: 7.0
Texas @ Los Angeles Angels (-157) – Over/Under: 8.0
Minnesota @ Seattle (-158) – Over/Under: 7.5
Adam Wainwright [SP, STL] (DK: $9,400, FD: $9,600)
DraftKings has rolled out a new pricing algorithm in its baseball contests which seems to inflate the prices of hitters with great matchups, while leaving pitchers at a very low price. The fact that Adam Wainwright is under 10% of your salary cap on DK makes it easy to fit him in all of your lineups. He’s one of the biggest favorites of the day against a Milwaukee team that’s only 25th against RHP so far this season. Wainwright has posted a 2.71 ERA over the past 3 seasons vs. MIL, and he’s a very solid play in all formats today, especially on DK.
James Paxton [SP, SEA] (DK: $6,400, FD: $7,000)
Don’t give up on Paxton just yet. It remains to see if he can return to his pre-injury form, but I still have hope. His K/9 rate has dropped slightly from his minor-league numbers but is still solid at a touch about 7, which is about the league average. He’s surprisingly the biggest favorite tonight with Seattle facing off against Trevor May and would allow you to surround him (and potentially Wainwright) with some top hitters.
A.J. Burnett [SP, PIT] (DK: $7,600, FD: $6,900)
First off, let me preface Burnett with this: It’s always a risk to roster a pitcher in a game where the over/under is set at 9 runs (2nd highest on the board tonight) and he’s in a very friendly hitter’s ballpark at Chase Field. But then again, in GPP’s we are looking for low ownership, and high upside both of which Burnett possesses tonight. Arizona has struck out 9th most vs RHP this year and have only posted a .235 / .296 / .334 line at home this season. Sure, the sample size is relatively small but Burnett’s Pirates are favorites tonight further making him a sneaky, potential GPP-winning pitcher.
Corey Dickerson [OF, COL] (DK: $4,800, FD: $4,800)
Playing Dickerson is much more comfortable on DraftKings tonight where he is underpriced, but the question anytime Dickerson is at home is whether or not to fade him. He’s been successful off of Hudson in the past and tonight is NOT a night to fade him. Hudson has struggled with LHB this season & Dickerson could potentially be the top option at OF tonight.
Jason Heyward [OF, STL] (DK: $4,400, FD: $2,900)
First off, don’t let Heyward’s dramatic price difference from DK to FD fool you. His price is around 8-9% of the salary cap on each respective site. He’s off to a slow start this season, hitting only .212 thus far but he does have 4 hits in his last 3 games and did homer last night. He’s seen Wily Peralta 11 times, notching 5 hits against him. He could be heating up and this would be a great time to jump on board before his price rises. (If this play confuses you, just remember: I’ve watched Heyward play for years as a Braves fan J )
Los Angeles Angels, Colorado Rockies, Pittsburgh Pirates, Seattle Mariners
Thank you all for reading!! Please give feedback!! @tbadger23. Good luck today and I’ll see y’all next week!