I hope you all have had an awesome, profitable week. I look forward to providing insight into the day’s games and hopefully enough to get each and every one of you “in the money” at the end of the day. I can be found on FanDuel and DraftKings as “bravesbaseball12” and on Twitter @tbadger23. Please provide feedback on this article so I can meet your needs and continue to improve it!
In this weekly article, you will find 2 different sections:
Pitchers — broken down by notable “Studs” OR “Value Plays” OR “GPP Plays”
Offensive Stacks — broken down by “Popular” OR “Value” OR “GPP”
(Note on “Stacks” & “GPP Plays” — It’s no secret that often times, the way to take down a large GPP in Daily Fantasy is to build a successful stack of hitters from the same team. However, the fact that stacking seems to be most effective in fantasy (especially DraftKings), results in many teams going this route. The “Stud” OR “Value Plays” OR “Popular” stacks may be successful, but also are more likely to be highly owned. If you want to stand out, the GPP Plays, and Stacks could get you to the top of the leaderboard and allow you take home the big prize. It should go without saying, you never want a whole team of just “GPP plays.” While your reward has the potential to be tremendous, your risk also increases tremendously, giving you very little chance to succeed. Not a lot of us have the kind of money to expend at a high risk, so it’ll be important to combine these plays with some stud & value plays, even if you believe that particular player will be highly owned.)
Tampa Bay (-130) @ Baltimore (in TB) – Over/Under: 7.0
Detroit (-125) @ Kansas City – Over/Under: 7.5
Cincinnati (-119) @ Atlanta – Over/Under: 7.5
Seattle @ Houston (-137) – Over/Under: 8.0
Washington (-118) @ New York Mets – Over/Under: 7.0
Oakland (-127) @ Texas – Over/Under: 8.5
Colorado @ San Diego (-131) – Over/Under: 7.0
Arizona @ Los Angeles (-148) – Over/Under: 8.0
Chris Archer [SP, TB] (DK: $8,600, FD: $8,900)
If you ask me who the best pitcher in baseball has been thus far, this is my guy. Archer has been flat-out dominant so far and I don’t see that changing today. I’m very surprised to see the price discrepancy between he and David Price ($2,000 on FD, and $1,600 on DK) and he isn’t even the 2nd highest priced pitcher on DK (he’s the 4th, behind Miguel (uh..) and Gio Gonzalez. He’s averaged 31.2 DK FPs in his last 4 starts and is a must-start there. On FD, he’s averaged 17.67 and will definitely be the “cash game” play of the day as well as the highest owned pitchers in most GPP’s.
Drew Pomeranz [SP, OAK] (DK: $5,400, FD: $6,200)
This pick here is more of a DK only play, at only 10.8D% of the salary cap. This isn’t necessarily saying I’m all too high on Pomeranz today but the price on DK would certainly allow you to load up on some big bats. Texas has been middle-of-the-road vs. LHP so far this season and is a less than intimidating lineup overall. Vegas has the over/under on Pomeranz’s K’s at 5, which is respectable, AND OAK is a small favorite here so you may even be able to steal a W.
Taijuan Walker [SP, SEA] (DK: $7,100, FD: $7,700)
Walkers faces off against the strike-out happy Astros tonight. The ‘Stros have the highest strikeout percentage vs. RHP this season and Walker has stuck out 13 in his past two starts in 12.1 IP. He was really generating ground balls in his last start out and with his high ceiling, he makes a very nice GPP play tonight, and is very affordable on DK as your #2.
Oakland Athletics vs. RHP Nick Martinez
More often than not, this spot will go to the team projected to score the highest run total (4.58) of the slate, and the A’s are that team tonight. However, just because it may be the most popular of the night doesn’t mean I condone it. However, tonight, I do like the A’s stack. Don’t let Nick Martinez’s .035 ERA fool you. Martinez has always had a low K/9 rate and his 3.81 rate so far is no different. He’s stranded 93.6% of runners he’s let on base which we all know he won’t be able to sustain. His xFIP of 4.96 is the 8th worst in the league (read more about xFIP here: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/xfip/) and predicts that he won’t be able to keep this success for long. His .250 BABIP is very respectable, but I just don’t trust him. The A’s have been the 4th best team in the league vs. RHP and should be a nice bet for success tonight.
Atlanta Braves vs. RHP Jason Marquis
DISCLAIMER: I am worried about Marquis stymieing the team that drafted him just because YCPB (you can’t predict baseball sometimes)…
Anyways, Using the Braves projected starters will give you over $8,500/per player for your two pitchers on DraftKings. Marquis has allowed a .379 BABIP this season, 5th highest in the league. That is NOT good, especially for a guy who does not historically strike out a lot of guys. If you’re entering multiple entries tonight, it wouldn’t hurt to stack Atlanta and load up on top pitching options. The Braves have scored 4 or more runs 6 of their last 7 games with 2 of those being outbursts of 8 and 12.
San Diego Padres vs. LHP Jorge de la Rosa
It’s hard to ever stack a team in the pitcher-friendly Petco Park which is why the Friars are GPP plays tonight. The Padres have posted a line of .309 / .359 / .438 vs. LHP this year (highest AVG in the league) and de la Rosa as been beyond awful this year. His .500 BABIP is just awful (yes, I know small sample size) in two starts this year. Yes, I also know both of these starts came at Coors but it’s not like de la Rosa was good on the road last year, posting an ERA of 5.09 in 93.2 IP as opposed to his 3.08 ERA at home in 90.2 IP. Don’t let the park scare you tonight, as this Padres lineup has globs of potential to go off no matter where the game is being held.
Thank you all for reading!! Please give feedback!! @tbadger23. Good luck tonight and I’ll see y’all next week!