We have the MLB DFS Strategy for tonights late slate of games. It’s a small slate, so there is going to be a lot of overlap. You need to go against the chalk in spots in order to differentiate yourself. Lets get into some Pitchers, Stacks and Other Bats that I like for tonight.
Chris Archer vs. Texas Rangers ($9400)
Archer is best strikeout pitcher on this slate. He has 42 strikeouts of them already in only 38 innings of work. In 4 of his six starts, he has not allowed a run to score. Stop and think about that for a second. He routinely goes about 7 innings and is a big favorite again today. All things considered, he is the chalk and probably should be.
Anthony DeScalfani vs. Pittsburgh Pirates ($6800)
DeScalfani has been really good so far this year. He had a few nice starts before finally getting roughed up. A week ago he was the hot thing and now no one remembers his name. He goesup opposite AJ Burnett who has also pitched well this year. I think Burnett takes a lot of attention tonight, so DeScalfani will be underwoned going against him. I feel like AJ is due for an AJ blowup and if that happens, you get a cheap, underowned guy in DeScalfani who should be pitching with a lead and has pitched well. That is a GPP winning upside kind of play in a scenario that is not too out of the box.
My best guess here is the Yankees against Tillman. A lefty heavy lineup make a lot of sense to go opposite Tillman, especially in Yankee Stadium. Tillman has walked way too many guys already and he has a problem with serving up long balls. The Yankees have been bashing homers, so this looks to be a really tough match up for him. I know some guys are going to look to target against the cheapest pitchers like Despaigne and Martinez, but Despaigne is crafty and will induce a lot of ground balls, while Martinez goes up against a weak hitting Tampa Bay team, so there’s not a ton of upside to either offense. The Yanks are expensive, but you can stack all those lefties from Ellsbury, Gardner, Beltran, Tex, and McCann and be confident in the match up.
They get a nice match up with the Lefty Santiago today and that is what they prefer. Altuve is the best hitter vs. LHP in all of MLB, and they have a lot of right-handed power bats ranging from Gattis to Springer to Carter that they can throw in to attack him. The one guy I think you leave off the stack is Luis Valbuena who will be hitting in the top 3, but has struggled with lefties. Still the HR upside alone is enough for me to like Houston and I think they will be less owned then the Yanks today.
This one is not for the faint of heart, but AJ Burnett seems due for a blow up to me. He has been great so this is more of a gut feeling, but AJ tends to get blown up about once a month and the lefty sticks like Votto, Hamilton, Pena, and Bruce could do some damage here. Throw in guys like Frazier and Phillips and you cover a lot of the tough to fill infield positions with this stack and leave yourself some cash for OF and SP.
No matter what site you do play on, there’s a limit to how many bats you can take from one team. Therefore while stacking has shown the best results in GPPs, you do need to include a few other guys in that mix. Here’s a couple of guys we have our eye on today who might be the guys you need to work in those line ups.
Tex has been great and loves hitting versus right-handers in Yankee stadium. I think a lot of people will be paying up for Goldy or going down to like a Joey Votto who is cheaper. That leaves Tex in the sweet spot and he could go overlooked. He is my prediction for a HR today, so that would make him a very useful play on all sites in all formats.
Alejandro De Aza
De Aza should be on top of that Orioles order again today and gets to hit in a great park for LHB at Yankee Stadium. He has a good splits matchup vs. Eovaldi who is a hard throwing right-hander. De Aza started out on fire and has cooled since, but a switch to a hitter’s park and a good matchup against a guy who gives up a lot of baserunners should work out for the Orioles lead off man. Plus his price is reasonable all over now for this solid match up.
Freese does not have an easy match up against McHugh. He will likely be hitting fourth again today and provides excellent value and always goes underowned. His HR upside in this matchup and probable low ownership make him a great GPP play to push you over the hump.
It’s a small slate, so there is going to be a lot of overlap. You need to go against the chalk in spots in order to differentiate yourself. I think it’s a fools errand to go against Archer, so the spot to attack for me today is the probable high ownership on AJ Burnett. Burnett ownership being high should limit the ownership of the Reds going up against him. It will also keep people off DeScalfani, so both of those moves make your roster different.
I think the Yanks/Orioles game is going to be the highest scoring, so you might want some bat exposure to that one. All those Lefties in Yank Stadium are in play on both sides of that one.
Although I did not mention them, I also think San Diego will be highly used. That is why I did not mention them as I think there’s merit in fading that game for GPPs. Both sides of it should be well represented and I do not like the upside.
Pitching seems to be pretty chalk for tonight. I would not fool around too much with the cheap guys. For GPPs we do like high strikeout potential, so Rubby De La Rosa is the one guy who makes sense as a flyer, but I would not be too pumped if I had to go that route. Overall I think Archer is a must play, how you build the rest of your roster will determine your placings tonight.