The MLB DFS Strategy goes through Pitchers and Stacks to target for your GPP lineups for tonights action at both FanDuel and DraftKings. Lets take a quick look at the game lines to get a better idea of what pitchers are favored and who is projected to score the most runs. From there we will get into my favorite plays for tonights slate.
Diamondbacks @ Marlins(-145) 7.5
Cardinals(-130) @ Mets 7
Phillies @ Rockies(-115) 9.5
Cubs @ Padres(-125) 6.5
Dodgers @ Giants(-106) 7
Angels @ Blue Jays(-120) 9
Mariners @ Orioles(-135) 8.5
Rangers @ Red Sox(-150) 9
Athletics(-130) @ Astros 8
Indians @ White Sox(-120) 7.5
Yankees @ Nationals(-145) 7.5
Twins @ Pirates(-170) 7.5
Brewers @ Tigers(-160) 8
Rays @ Braves(-115) 8
Reds @ Royals(-107) 6.5
Sonny Gray, Oakland A’s (FD $10,500, DK $10,100) – Gray gets to face the strike out happy, but dangerous Houston Astros offense tonight. Gray has 28 strike outs over his last 19.2 innings pitched and has only scored less than 18 DK points just once so far this season, through 8 starts. Gray and the Athletics are a -130 favorite in this game tonight.
Francisco Liriano, Pittsburgh Pirates (FD $9400, DK $9300) – I think Liriano is my top play tonight as he gets to face the Twins at home and is a -170 favorite. Players always love taking on their former teams and I think Liriano is going to want to show the Twins a thing or two tonight and getting to do this at home is always a good thing. Liriano has dropped his last 2 outings and I think that will keep his ownership % below guys like Gray, Cueto and Shields.
James Shields, San Diego Padres (FD $8800, DK $9700) – Shields makes my list tonight because his strike out numbers are through the roof compared to what we had expected from him and he gets to take on a team that strikes out a lot lately in the Chicago Cubs. Shields is a -125 favorite in a game with an over/under of just 6.5. He gets to take on the power of the Cubs at home at Petco, which is definitely a great thing for Shields. I do not expect him to throw a shutout but his ceiling is extremely high in this match-up.
Carlos Frias, LA Dodgers (FD $6600, DK $5500) – Frias is not a sexy name at the starting pitcher position, however he has been pitching extremely solidly since jumping into the rotation. He has gone 16.1 innings over his three starts, while striking out 14 and giving up 6 runs. Frias is a slight road favorite at -106, but this game offers us an over/under of just 7 runs tonight.
Mike Foltynewicz, Atlanta Braves (FD $7000, DK $6400) – Foltynewicz is a -115 favorite at home tonight in a game that I think he gets plenty of run support in as his offense should be able to take it to Ramirez and the Rays tonight. Through 17 innings pitcher so far in his MLB career, he has 16 strikeouts but has 10 walks but has basically averaged 100 pitches per start so far. Should he be able to find a little more control, you have a pitcher that should be able to go 7 or 8 innings at some point and with those additional innings comes additional strike outs.
Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds (FD $10,200, DK $9900) – Normally Cueto is a top option any night he takes the mound, however tonight he takes on a Royals squad that just does not strike out and seem to do all the little things correctly to push across runs. He is also an underdog tonight as the Royals are -107 favorites. This game does offer us an over/under of just 6.5 tonight, so it should be close. On one pitcher sites, I think its just too tough of a match-up to rely on and there are better pitchers for cheaper in terms of W and strike out potential.
Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals (FD $8700, DK $9000) – I think Gio is capable of throwing a gem tonight against a generally very left handed heavy Yankees team. I know they have a few switch hitters, but those guys swing it better from the left side of the plate and add in the fact that Ellsbury, Gardner and McCann are lefties that hit in the top 5 and you get a situation that could be very beneficial for Gio. He is a -145 favorite at home tonight.
Oakland Athletics: Marcus Semien (FD $3400, DK $4300), Josh Reddick (FD $3800, DK $4700), Billy Butler (FD $2600, DK $3800), Stephen Vogt (FD $3800, DK $4100) – I love targeting bats against Roberto Hernandez and tonight I think this A’s stack is going to be somewhat sneaky even though I have it listed as my top overall stack of the night. I would also include somebody like Billy Burns should he be hitting lead off tonight as well.
Miami Marlins: Dee Gordon (FD $3800, DK $4800), Martin Prado (FD $2300, DK $3400), Giancarlo Stanton (FD $4600, DK $5200), Marcel Ozuna (FD $2900, DK $4100) – I love the spot that the struggling Marlins are in tonight against Hellickson and the Diamondbacks. The Marlins are a -145 favorite tonight and I think Ozuna returning to the lineup will give them a little boost. Much like the A’s stack above, I expect this one to be under owned in comparison to the match-up.
Colorado Rockies: Charlie Blackmon (FD $4000, DK $4500), Troy Tulowitzki (FD $4500, DK $4700), Nolan Arenado (FD $4000, DK $4700), Carlos Gonzalez (FD $3200, DK $4500) – Coors Field offers us the Phillies and Rockies tonight with Harang taking on Bettis. At some point this year Aaron Harang is going to realize he is Aaron Harang and will become a target of us in picking bats. I think that could start tonight depending on the weather in Denver. I would love to include Rosario and Dickerson but Rosario is a much better target against lefties and Dickerson is not 100% right now.
Philadelphia Phillies: Ben Revere (FD $3000, DK $4500), Freddy Galvis (FD $3300, DK $4200), Ryan Howard (FD $3400, DK $4400) – I think you can include anybody in the top 5 of this lineup tonight in Coors as well as somebody like Ruiz and Herrera should they be outside of the top 5. The Phillies move their lineup around quite often as evidenced by having Grady Sizemore hitting in the three hole recently.
Atlanta Braves: Jace Peterson (FD $2800, DK $3400), Nick Markakis (FD $2600, DK $3700), Freddie Freeman (FD $3400, DK $4700) – I really like the Braves left handed bats tonight and can see including Pierzynski, Simmons and/or Cunningham depending on how the lineup shakes out. Erasmo Ramirez is not a very good pitcher and I will always look to target bats against him.
Josh Donaldson, Toronto Blue Jays
Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
Joc Pederson, LA Dodgers
Gregory Polanco, Pittsburgh Pirates
Russell Martin, Toronto Blue Jays
David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox
Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers
Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles
Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles
Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies