Tonight should be a great night of baseball as there are some interesting pitching match-ups and a number of call ups making their major league debuts. Normally I do an “Other Bats” section but for tonight I have changed it to “Other Thoughts” so that I can give you some of my ideas on the match-ups and things that I might be looking for tonight. Lets get into the MLB DFS Strategy.
Reds(-160) @ Phillies 7
Cubs(-125) @ Marlins 7.5
Brewers @ Cardinals(-190) 7.5
Dodgers(-180) @ Rockies 10
Braves @ Diamondbacks(-115) 8.5
Mets(-120) @ Padres 6.5
Pirates @ Giants(-105) 7
Athletics @ Tigers(-150) 8.5
Twins @ Red Sox(-140) 8
White Sox @ Rangers(-105) 8.5
Orioles @ Astros(-144) 8
Indians @ Royals(-115) 8
Rays @ Angels(-120) 7
Yankees(-104) @ Mariners 7.5
Blue Jays @ Nationals(-220) 7
Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals (FD $12,000, DK $12,000) – This should be an interesting game as Scherzer gets to take on the potent Blue Jays offense tonight. Scherzer and the Nationals are a -220 favorite in a game with an over/under of just 7 runs. Scherzer is pretty expensive tonight and I think he will be grossly under owned as tonight offers some pretty interesting pitching options. I don’t want to go out on a limb but I feel pretty confident that for some reason, tonight’s big tournament winner/s might have Scherzer on their roster.
Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds (FD $10,700, DK $10,400) – Cueto was scratched from his last start as he had been dealing with some stiffness and just had not been effective recently. I think tonight is a great night for him to get back to the Cueto we expect to see as he gets to face O’Sullivan and the Phillies. Cueto is a -160 road favorite in this one and the game offers an over/under of just 7 runs.
A.J. Burnett, Pittsburgh Pirates (FD $9400, DK $9200) – Burnett has just been pitching beautifully this season and even though he is a small road underdog tonight against Heston and the Giants, I think he is in a great spot tonight. I think he will be under owned as people will see that he is the underdog against a hot hitting Giants team, even after his teammate Gerrit Cole shut them down last night.
Shelby Miller, Atlanta Braves (FD $9100, DK $8300) – You might be shocked to see Miller listed in the values section but on DK his $8.3K price tag is just way too low for the way he has been pitching. For some reason he is a road underdog against Collmenter tonight as the D’Backs are -115 favorites. Miller has yet to give up more than 2 earned runs in a start in 2015 and even though the D’Backs offense has been hot, I think Miller is in an excellent spot as I think his Braves teammates get to Collmenter.
Mike Pelfrey, Minnesota Twins (FD $6900, DK $4200) – I wrote about Pelfrey yesterday and then the game was postponed so I figured I should include him today because his price, especially on DK, is too good to pass up for the way he has been pitching and the Twins have been playing. In his last start he went 7 innings and gave up just 1 run to the same Boston Red Sox team he faces tonight. The Red Sox are the favorite in this one as they are sitting at -140 right now, but with the way the Twins are playing, I am not going to bet against them.
Zack Greinke, LA Dodgers (FD $9900, DK $9900) – Greinke gets to take his pin-point pitching to Coors tonight to face off with the Rockies in a game with an over/under of 10 runs. The Dodgers are -180 favorites in this one, but the big question is what will their lineup look like as they are playing a double header today, so it will be interesting to see how Mattingly breaks it up as I believe the Rockies are running De La Rosa out for the first, leaving Hale to face off with Greinke.
Lance Lynn, St Louis Cardinals (FD $8800, DK $8500) – I love Lance Lynn and maybe that is a problem but he takes on the Brewers who are running out a second rookie in three days making his debut tonight. I think Lynn is in a great spot to pick up the Win tonight, even against a potent Brewers offense. Lynn generally throws a lot of fastballs and that is where the Brewers feast. Lynn has given up 7 runs in 10 innings against the Brewers this year so this pick does come with some volatility.
LA Dodgers: Joc Pederson (FD $4000, DK $4600), Adrian Gonzalez (FD $4300, DK $5300), Howie Kendrick (FD $3400, DK $4300), Andre Ethier (FD $3100, DK $4000) – The Dodgers are in Coors again and their offense did not disappoint last night against a soft throwing righty and they should be in the same spot in game 2 of the double header as the Rockies are expect to throw out David Hale. I suggest paying attention to the lineup as this will be game 2 of the day and Mattingly will definitely do something different with the lineups.
Detroit Tigers: Anthony Gose (FD $2700, DK $3900), Ian Kinsler (FD $3300, DK $4300), Miguel Cabrera (FD $4800, DK $5300), Yoenis Cespedes (FD $3300, DK $4600) – The Tigers get to take their hacks at Kendall Graveman tonight and their offense is in a great spot as this game offers an over/under of 8.5 while the Tigers are -150 favorites. I think I would stack this team a couple of ways so that I could include Martinez, McCann and Iglesias should they be in the lineup.
St Louis Cardinals: Kolton Wong (FD $3300, DK $3800), Matt Carpenter (FD $3800, DK $4200), Matt Holiday (FD $3100, DK $3900) – Like I said above, the Cardinals get to face off with a rookie making his major league debut tonight and the Brewers just tried this the other day and it ended badly against the D’Backs. I expect the top of this lineup to be extremely potent tonight. The Cardinals are -190 favorites so they should do most of the scoring in a game with an over/under of 7.5.
Atlanta Braves: Jace Peterson (FD $2700, DK $3500), Andrelton Simmons (FD $2300, DK $3600), Freddie Freeman (FD $3200, DK $4800) – I really like the Braves as a sneaky stack tonight going up against Josh Collmenter and the Diamondbacks. The Braves offense came to play last night and should make it two nights in a row in a very positive hitter’s environment. I think guys like Pierzynski, Uribe and Cunningham make excellent options as well tonight. If Simmons is moved back to the 8 spot tonight I would drop him from this list and insert whoever is in the 2 spot (Cameron Maybin possibly).
I could be way off but I think tonight is going to be lower scoring as far as GPP’s go as when I look at the starting pitchers going tonight, I think I can make a case for at least 14 of them as possible roster options. It has been a long time since I felt like that towards the starting pitcher spot. Two guys that I did not get to mention above are Archer and Syndergaard as I think both of those guys could reach 30+ points on DK tonight in their match-ups but they could also get blown up. I think you can definitely stack the Indians left handed hitters, along with the Nationals and the Reds. My initial thought has me wanting to make about 15 different GPP lineups to try and stack all of the teams I think could pay off along with making sure I get to enough pitching combinations.
Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves
(Last night my second prediction came thru so tonight its: Todd Frazier)