Welcome to a big Friday as far as DFS MLB goes as there is plenty of money to be won and some very interesting games to focus on as well as a conundrum at the pitching position. Lets dive into my favorite pitchers and stacks in the MLB DFS Strategy.
|Home||Away||Spread Home||Over/Under Goals|
|Detroit Tigers||Toronto Blue Jays||-1.5||8.5|
|Pittsburgh Pirates||Cleveland Indians||-1.5||7.5|
|New York Yankees||Tampa Bay Rays||-1.5||7|
|Cincinnati Reds||Milwaukee Brewers||1.5||8|
|Boston Red Sox||Houston Astros||-1.5||9|
|Atlanta Braves||Philadelphia Phillies||-1.5||7.5|
|Texas Rangers||LAA Angels||1.5||9|
|Kansas City Royals||Minnesota Twins||-1.5||7.5|
|Chicago White Sox||Baltimore Orioles||1.5||8|
|St. Louis Cardinals||San Diego Padres||-1.5||7|
|Oakland Athletics||Seattle Mariners||-1.5||7|
|Arizona Diamondbacks||Colorado Rockies||-1.5||9|
|Los Angeles Dodgers||New York Mets||-1.5||6|
Tyson Ross, San Diego Padres (FD $9000, DK $9400) – The Reds roster has a career .118 average against Tyson Ross through 68 at-bats and that is what sticks out to me immediately. I am a little shocked that the Reds are initially a -115 favorite in this game, but I am intrigued by the fact that the over/under is just 8 considering how small this ball park can play. As always, the one big thing with Ross is the fact that he runs up his pitch count early on and has trouble going much more than 6 innings. The Reds lineup should be somewhat weak top to bottom so if he can find some ways to get some quick outs from the bottom of this lineup, he could certainly get 7+ in. I think the Industry in general is fed up with rostering Ross and I think he will be under owned compared to what his history and ceilings are.
Carlos Martinez, St Louis Cardinals (FD $9100, DK $9100) – Martinez has not allowed a run over his last 21 innings and in his last start, which is against the same Dodgers team he takes on today, he went 7 innings while allowing just 1 hit while striking out 8. Martinez is a ground ball pitcher who also misses a lot of bats and I have been rostering him all season long. I will give a shout out to GrindersLive host Crazy Gabey as he has been touting Martinez as the GOAT all season long and he is not letting him down. I think it’s time we all start to listen to what this Crazy bearded fellow has to say about some things. The Dodgers are actually a -130 favorite as of right now, but this game does have an over/under of just 6.5 runs.
Jake Odorizzi, Tampa Bay Rays (FD $8600, DK $8600) – I generally like to take Odorizzi when he is at home, however I think being at Safeco in this one will be just as nice. Two starts ago Odorizzi faced off against these Mariners and managed to go 7 innings while giving up just 1 earned run and striking out 7. With that said, I think he has a chance for a couple more strikeouts this time around as the Mariners added a very powerful but extremely strike out prone bat in Mark Trumbo. Odorizzi and the Rays are -115 road favorites in this one and the game offers us an over/under of just 7 runs. I like his chances for the win as the Mariners are running a lefty out there and we all know how I feel about the Rays when they face off against a left handed pitcher!
Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays (FD $6800, DK $6100) – Sanchez has a couple of things going for him in this match-up that intrigues me greatly. The first is that he holds right handed hitters to a .160 average so far in 2015 with a slugging of just .210 and the second is the fact that base stealers are just 4 for 10 against him so far. Sanchez and the Blue Jays are -135 favorites, but the game offers one of the highest over/under’s of the night at 9 runs. I think this is one pitcher that could be the difference in a GPP thanks to his price and his upside against a generally potent Astros offense. At some point Sanchez is going to figure it out completely in the rotation as there is a reason why he was a highly touted prospect.
Raisel Iglesias, Cincinnati Reds (FD $6400, DK $5600) – As I stated under Tyson Ross, Iglesias and the Reds are a -115 home favorite in this one and that is a big reason why you find Iglesias here in the values section as the Win is certainly within his grasp as well as the fact that he strikes out just over 9 per 9/IP. Iglesias has two things going for him as he does his best work at home and holds hitters to a .156 batting average at night.
Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants (FD $8500, DK $7700) – Lincecum has really struggled his last two starts as he has given up 8 runs in 9.1 innings while giving up 13 hits and 3 home runs. In his 4 starts prior to that he had gone 25.2 innings and had given up just 3 runs while striking out 20 and going 3-0. Lincecum and the Giants have opened up at a -145 favorite in this game going up against a very weak Phillies offense. I know I am not the only one that would love to see Lincecum turn back the hands of time for another season or two and be dominant again, however I do not think that is going to happen and we are going to have to live with him being really effective, while walking a handful per start. I think he makes a solid SP2 option and a very nice SP3 option on FF.
Edinson Volquez, Kansas City Royals (FD $8400, DK $7800) – Volquez is coming off of what was about to be a very strong start against the Cubs as he finished with 9 K’s in 5.2 innings, however he hit a wall in the 6th inning and ended up giving up a big 2 run home run which brought an end to his night. He takes on a Rangers team that battered him around for 4 runs in 5 innings 3 weeks ago and he will look to get some redemption against them while pitching at home and being a -150 favorite. Volquez will never be consistent enough to be a stud or a cash game option but he is capable of throwing gems on any night of the week.
Colorado Rockies: Charlie Blackmon (FD $4000, DK $4700), Troy Tulowitzki (FD $4800, DK $5100), Carlos Gonzalez (FD $3600, DK $4600), Nolan Arenado (FD $4200, DK $4900) – The Rockies get to face off with Tom Koehler at Coors tonight and they should automatically find themselves at the top of your stacking list. I would certainly include LeMahieu and Paulsen for a 6 man stack on DK and can make an argument to include one of those in a 4 man stack on FD for salary relief. Koehler is coming off of a 3.1 inning start where he gave up 5 runs on 7 hits and should put up something similar in this one and once you get into the Marlins pen, you get into something that is not scary and has some severe blow up ability.
Toronto Blue Jays: Jose Reyes (FD $3700, DK $4600), Josh Donaldson (FD $4900, DK $5300), Jose Bautista (FD $4700, DK $5200), Edwin Encarnacion (FD $3800, DK $4900) – The Jays get to take on Roberto Hernandez in a game with an over/under of 9 runs. Hernandez has given up 18 runs over his last 23 innings pitched while giving up 30 hits. I think the Jays should rival the Rockies as the top stacking option of the night and you will have to pay attention to the lineup as Encarnacion has missed a few games recently. Colabello, Martin and even Navarro make interesting plays as well.
Arizona Diamondbacks: AJ Pollock (FD $4700, DK $4600), Paul Goldschmidt (FD $5500, DK $5700), Yasmany Tomas (FD $3000, DK $4100) – I really like the Diamondbacks against left handed pitching and that is what we get tonight. I really wish they didn’t deal away Trumbo as he would fit perfectly into this match-up however I am not afraid of sneaking in Ender Inciarte, Aaron Hill or David Peralta to differentiate my D’Backs stack from somebody else’s. This game provides us an over/under of 9 runs and I think there could be some fireworks as the D’Backs righties and the Mets lefties are in great spots.
Tampa Bay Rays: Joey Butler (FD $3000, DK $3700), Evan Longoria (FD $3100, DK $3800), Logan Forsythe (FD $3000, DK $3200), Steven Souza Jr (FD $3700, DK $4300) – I am sure you could have predicted this after reading what I said about Odorizzi earlier as the Rays offense gets to face a lefty tonight and that lefty is J.A. Happ. The Rays have some really solid team numbers against Happ and generally offer a somewhat cheaper stacking option that could also include Brandon Guyer, Jake Elmore and Rene Rivera as cheap fillers.
My main thought is please, please, please make sure you watch the weather and stay on top of any sticky situations as it can definitely make or break your night in an instant. Wednesday night I decided to swap out a quarter of my lineups to lessen my Coors exposure and even though I ended up having a great night, I could have had a huge night had I not panicked last minute. With that said, I am writing this pretty early in the morning and we have rain in Colorado (no way, really?), Atlanta, Cincinnati and Cleveland. I believe the GPPs are going to be won by your offense tonight as there are a lot of pitchers you could make an argument for but they generally have more arguments against them than anything. I am sure you noticed that after seeing my list of 3 studs for tonight’s slate as there just is no clear cut number 1 option in my eyes. One game that I think could be very sneaky for offense is the Angels-Yankees game that brings the soft tossing Weaver up against the hard and straight throwing Eovaldi. How many bombs could be hit there? I am intrigued by Scott Kazmir however I am very afraid after he left his last start with shoulder issues.
Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins
(I know its obvious but come on…..FINE!! Evan Longoria)