I look forward to providing insight into the days games and hopefully enough to get each and every one of you in the money at the end of the day. I can be found on FanDuel and DraftKings as bravesbaseball12 and on Twitter. There are some legit weather concerns for todays games so make sure you have a good idea of the forecast and what games are looking like delays or possible PPDs.
In this weekly article, you will find 3 different sections:
Pitchers broken down by notable Studs OR Value Plays OR GPP Plays
Hitters broken down by notable Studs OR Value Plays OR GPP Plays
Stacks broken down by Popular OR GPP
(Note on Stacks & GPP Plays Its no secret that often times, the way to take down a large GPP in Daily Fantasy is to build a successful stack of hitters from the same team. However, the fact that stacking seems to be most effective in fantasy (especially DraftKings), results in many teams going this route. The Stud OR Value Plays OR Popular stacks may be successful, but also are more likely to be highly owned. If you want to stand out, the GPP Plays, and Stacks could get you to the top of the leaderboard and allow you take home the big prize. It should go without saying, you never want a whole team of just GPP plays. While your reward has the potential to be tremendous, your risk also increases tremendously, giving you very little chance to succeed. Not a lot of us have the kind of money to expend at a high risk, so itll be important to combine these plays with some stud & value plays, even if you believe that particular player will be highly owned.)
Note: DraftKings is NOT including the 1:07 game between TEX / TOR in it’s early contests.
Texas @ Toronto TBA
Minnesota @ Milwaukee (-118) Over/Under: 8.0
Washington (-173) @ Philadelphia Over/Under: 8.0
Kansas City @ Oakland (-139) Over/Under: 7.5
Atlanta @ Pittsburgh (-160) Over/Under: 7.0
Colorado @ San Francisco (-135) Over/Under: 7.0
Chicago White Sox @ Detroit (-160) Over/Under: 9.5
New York Yankees (-124) @ Houston Over/Under: 7.5
Cincinnati @ New York Mets (-168) Over/Under: 6.5
Los Angeles Dodgers (-208) @ Miami Over/Under: 6.5
Boston @ Tampa Bay (-126) Over/Under: 7.5
Matt Harvey [SP, NYM] (DK: $11,100, FD: $10,500)
I anticipate most people will be on either Kershaw or Harvey on 1 pitcher sites, and I’ll take the discount. Harvey has struggled some at home (in comparative terms) but overall, he’s just fine in Flushing. Opponents are batting .202 / .248 / .311 in Harvey’s 172 career IP at home and I’ll gladly take that against a Cincinnati team that is not anywhere near as good on the road (.301 wOBA / .136 ISO) as they are at home (.334 wOBA /.187 ISO).
Charlie Morton [SP, PIT] (DK:$6,200 FD: $7,600)
Morton is significantly cheaper on DK (12.4% of salary) than on FD (21.7%) but still is one of the best value options on the board. He’s coming of an atrocious outing where he allowed 9 runs in just 0.2 IP. He’ll get another start at home where he’s pitched 21 IP this season holding opponents to a .220 wOBA. The Braves lineup is lacking it’s major threat in Freddie Freeman and I LOVE Morton as a #2 on two pitcher sites and in GPP’s on one-pitcher sites.
DFS players must have short memories. Tanaka has allowed 5 homers in his last 5 starts and 15 hits in those 19 IP. Here’s the good news: He will get to face the Astros who have highest strikeout % vs. RHP (25.9%) in the league. The upside and potential bounce-back after a rough start his last time out equal a perfect formula for leading a GPP-winning lineup today.
Other GPP Play @Position: Scott Kazmir (DK: $9,000 FD: $9,000) — Opponents held to .217 wOBA @ home
Miguel Cabrera [1B, DET] (DK: $5,500 FD: $5,500)
I’m not here to tell you to play Cabrera, just not to fade him today.
Danks: Allowed 12 HR’s to RHB in just 60.2 IP
Value Option @ Position: David Ortiz (DK: $3,900 FD: $2,900)
I expect Tulo to be under-owned today but he’s still the top option on the board.
13 for his last 30 (.433), 10 game hitting streak
Other Option @ Position: Carlos Correa (DK: $4,200 FD: $3,900)
Salvador Perez [C, KC] (DK: $3,500, FD: $2,200)
.187 ISO vs. LHP, GPP Only Play
Stud Option @ Position: Buster Posey (DK: $4,500 FD: $4,300)
Joc Pederson [OF, LAD] (DK: $4,200 FD: $3,700)
Why value? Pederson is the 16th most expensive OF on DK, 15th on FD.
.314 ISO / .410 wOBA vs. RHP
Koehler: 10 of his 11 HR allowed have come to RHB (.247 / .331 / .490 opp average)
Stud Option @ Position: J.D. Martinez (DK: $5,200 FD: $4,000)
Value Option @ Position: Gregory Polanco (DK: $3,800 FD: $4,000)
Ben Zobrist [2B, OAK] (DK: $4,700 FD: $3,400)
Career ISO 9 points higher vs. RHP
Chris Young: 3 HR allowed last time out
Other Option @ 2B: Neil Walker (DK: $3,500 FD: $2,500)
Alex Rodriguez [3B, NYY] (DK: $4,500 FD: $4,000)
Top 20 in the league in HR / FB rate (23.5%) (home run to fly ball ratio) AWAY FROM HOME. That’s the key, and is why I still like him in Houston today. Should be low-owned.
Other Option @ 3B: Maikel Franco (DK: $4,200 FD: $3,700) — .400 ISO / .454 wOBA VS. LHP
Popular Stack: Detroit Tigers (vs. LHP John Danks)
GPP Stack: Pittsburgh Pirates (vs. RHP Julio Teheran) / Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. RHP Tom Koehler
Other Stacks to Target:
Milwaukee Brewers, Washington Nationals, Chicago White Sox, Oakland Athletics