We have a full slate for this Sunday afternoon MLB DFS action. A few heavy favorites jump off the page for pitchers and there are also some high over unders to target for stacks. Lets get into my favorite plays in the MLB DFS strategy.
Dodgers(-135) @ Mets 6
Nationals @ Pirates(-185) 7
Braves @ Cardinals(-210) 7
Phillies @ Cubs(-225)
Marlins @ Padres(-115) 7
Reds @ Rockies(-115) 11
Brewers @ D’Backs(-120) 8.5
White Sox @ Indians(-170) 7.5
Orioles(-104) @ Rays 7
Tigers @ Red Sox(-140) 9.5
Yankees(-115) @ Twins 8.5
Astros(-115) @ Royals 7.5
Rangers @ Angels(-200) 8
Blue Jays(-115) @ Mariners 7.5
Athletics @ Giants(-145) 7.5
Zach Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers (FD $12,600, DK $13,000) – This match-up is going to be an awesome to watch as Greinke faces off with deGrom today in a game with an over/under of just 6 runs. Greinke and the Dodgers are a -135 favorite as Greinke tries to extend his consecutive scoreless innings streak. He is roughly 18 innings short of setting the major league record and with the birth of his first son on Thursday, I expect him to come out on cloud 9 and throw another gem. The Mets lineup is pretty weak overall, even though as I write this they are taking it to Zach Lee.
Jacob deGrom, New York Mets (FD $11,300, DK $11,500) – The other side of the LAD-NYM pitching match-up has deGrom taking the mound looking to extend his filthiness streak. He threw an impressive inning in the All-Star game and followed that up by going 6 innings, allowing just 2 runs and striking out 8 in his first second half start. He certainly has his work cut out for him as Greinke has been ridiculous so far this year and that’ll make the W very tough to earn. Last year deGrom faced the Dodgers twice and was beaten both times while allowing 4 long balls to them in 12 innings. He has only allowed 9 home runs in 2015.
Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros (FD $10,900, DK $11,300) – Keuchel gets to face a Royals team that he recently shut out over 8 innings and managed to strike out 7 in that game. He is also coming off of an extremely impressive 7 inning, 13 strikeout performance in his last start. This is certainly a tough match-up as the Royals generally do not strike out much and seem to do a lot of damage against left handed pitching. The Astros are a -115 road favorite and the game has an over/under of 7.5. His opposing pitcher is Yordano Ventura has struggled mightily and may be a little off his game as he was recently demoted, only to be recalled with the season ending injury to Jason Vargas.
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies (FD $4800, DK $5600) – Nola was extremely impressive in his major league debut and will face a Cubs lineup that was just baffled by Cole Hamels, who managed to no-hit them and strike out 13 batters. Anybody want to bet that the Cubs are going to try to be the front runners in acquiring Hamels? Nola went 6 innings and gave up just 1 run, while striking out 6 batters in his debut only to take the hard luck loss. He was very effective as he managed 9 ground ball outs and just 2 fly ball outs. The Cubs are big favorites in this one and the over/under has not been set yet (due to the wind factor in Wrigley).
Joe Ross, Washington Nationals (FD $5000, DK $7500) – Ross gets to take on the same Pirates team that he struck out 11 against in June. In that start he went 7.1 innings, allowed just 1 run on just 6 hits to go along with those 11 K’s. The Pirates are playing pretty well right now as they got to Scherzer for 3 home runs, however I think Ross has that young swagger that he may just brush off that Scherzer line and look to pitch his way into the discussion to cover for Strasburg for awhile. The game has an over/under of just 7 runs, however the Nationals are big under dogs as the Pirates are running out Gerrit Cole.
Andrew Heaney, Los Angeles Angels (FD $7000, DK $8600) – Heaney has made 5 MLB starts so far in 2015 and has not given up more than 2 runs in any of them and has allowed just 6 runs total over those starts. The Rangers lineup can be somewhat dangerous, however Heaney should be able to neutralize a lot of that as most of the Rangers lineup is left handed. Heaney has actually been more potent against right handed hitters as they are hitting just .169 against him. Do not worry, left handed hitters are hitting .234 with an OBP of just .234. Heaney is a -200 favorite, which is shockingly just the third largest favorite. His FD price is EXTREMELY intriguing to me.
Carlos Rodon, Chicago White Sox (FD $6700, DK $6000) – Rodon is coming off an absolutely terrible start in which he gave up 7 runs in just 4 innings, however he has the stuff to shut down an offense and rack up the strikeouts and I can see that happening against the Indians as they are extremely left hand heavy. Rodon has held left handed hitters to an average of .216 and a slugging of just .270 so far in 2015. The White Sox are big underdogs in this game, however they are playing a lot better than the Indians are right now and I think Rodon could make a sneaky SP2 option for his price.
Cincinnati Reds: Brandon Phillips (FD $3200, DK $4400), Joey Votto (FD $4600, DK $5800), Todd Frazier (FD $5000, DK $6000), Jay Bruce (FD $4000, DK $5100) – The match-up at Coors should be even more intriguing today than it was on Friday as we get to watch Michael Lorenzen pitch against Kyle Kendrick in what should be a fireworks display from the offenses. With this Reds team, I really love the top 4 and would love to include Marlon Byrd and Billy Hamilton (especially if the Rockies finally start McKenry). Also, I have a feeling that Phillips could get a rest and I would look to plug in whoever they sub in for him.
Colorado Rockies: Charlie Blackmon (FD $4900, DK $5600), Troy Tulowitzki (FD $4500, DK $4600), Carlos Gonzalez (FD $4900, DK $4900), Corey Dickerson (FD $4500, DK $4300) – Lorenzen has been decent against right handed hitters so far in 2015, but has been torched by left handed hitters so far. The above stack has 3 lefties to go with Tulo (who could find himself with an off day). I left out Arenado, however I certainly could see including him in a stack. Paulsen and whoever is behind the plate could make interesting adds to a stack as well.
Toronto Blue Jays: Josh Donaldson (FD $4500, DK $5000), Jose Bautista (FD $4700, DK $5000), Edwin Encarnacion (FD $4700, DK $3700), Russell Martin (FD $3400, DK $3700) – The Blue Jays get to take on a pitcher who has been lit up over his last 3 starts as Taijuan Walker takes the mound for the Mariners after allowing 18 runs over his last 15.1 innings pitched. He has given up 20 hits and 5 home runs over those 3 starts and could be in for a long day against the potent Blue Jays lineup. I certainly would stack just about anybody from this lineup and would not be shocked to see Justin Smoak in the lineup against his former team.
Baltimore Orioles: Manny Machado (FD $4400, DK $4000), Adam Jones (FD $3000, DK $4100), Chris Davis (FD $3600, DK $3500) – I think the Orioles make an interesting stack going up against a struggling Matt Moore today. Moore has given up 15 runs in his 4 starts since returning from tommy-john surgery. Both lefties and righties are hitting him at a .333 clip so far over those 4 starts. I would certainly think about including Wieters, Hardy and Joseph should they be in the lineup as well as Paredes. I think this stack will be somewhat under owned and I think you could actually stack bats from both teams in this match-up.
I have yet to mention pitchers such as Hammel, Salazar, Cole, Wacha, Chen, Latos and Buehrle. I think all of these pitchers make for interesting options for one reason or another. Hammel is a huge favorite against the Phillies, while Salazar is a big favorite against a suddenly red-hot White Sox team. Wacha gets to face a weak Braves lineup, while Cole takes on an efficient Nationals team who just does not “look” very dangerous. Chen takes on a Rays team that could be a stack option since Chen is a lefty, however they just are not all that scary. Latos has thrown three solid games in a row and takes on a Padres team that struggles against righties. Buehrle has been awesome for much of 2015 and is always capable of blowing by expectations. I mentioned also stacking the Rays as they are a team we like to have exposure to against left handed pitching. Other teams that intrigue me as far as bats go are the White Sox, Yankees, Tigers, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Angels and Red Sox. There is going to be a lot of interesting roster combinations for this slate as there are a number of bats in excellent spots. I know my two stud stacks are in Coors, but I would not be shocked to see a Yankees or Tigers stack be the best option of the day. Best of luck out there and make sure to hit me up on Twitter as I always enjoy answering questions in regards to lineup construction and just general baseball stuff.