UFC 190 is scheduled to for 7 PM ET at the HSBC arena in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil. The headline features the best womens fighter on the planet in Ronda Rousey. The odds are clearly stacked against her opponent but this card does offer some compelling fights throughout.
|Women’s Bantamweight||Ronda Rousey (c)||vs.||Bethe Correia||-1700||$6000||1100||$4200|
|Light Heavyweight||Maurício Rua||vs.||Antônio Rogério Nogueira||-190||$5400||165||$4200|
|Lightweight||Glaico França||vs.||Fernando Bruno||-175||$4900||155||$4700|
|Bantamweight||Reginaldo Vieira||vs.||Dileno Lopes||280||$4300||-340||$5300|
|Heavyweight||Stefan Struve||vs.||Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira||-165||$4400||145||$5200|
|Heavyweight||Antônio Silva||vs.||Soa Palelei||175||$4900||-210||$4900|
|Women’s Strawweight||Cláudia Gadelha||vs.||Jessica Aguilar||-440||$5000||350||$4600|
|Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)|
|Welterweight||Demian Maia||vs.||Neil Magny||-175||$4800||155||$4800|
|Light Heavyweight||Rafael Cavalcante||vs.||Patrick Cummins||135||$4700||-155||$4900|
|Welterweight||Warlley Alves||vs.||Nordine Taleb||-235||$5000||195||$4600|
|Bantamweight||Iuri Alcântara||vs.||Leandro Issa||-250||$5300||210||$4300|
|Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)|
|Middleweight||Vitor Miranda||vs.||Clint Hester||140||$4800||-160||$4800|
|Bantamweight||Hugo Viana||vs.||Guido Cannetti||-380||$5400||315||$4200|
Rousey (-1700) v Correia (+1100)
Kountermove: 6000 v 4200
DraftKings: 12200 v 7200
This might be one of the most lopsided fights to headline a card in quite some time. Most are predicting a bloodbath in favor of Rousey and the only real question is how long can this fight actually last? Does Rousey score the knockout and if so how early? Most are predicting an early first round so will that be enough to pay off her hefty price tag on both KounterMove and DraftKings? I think most will make Rousey a staple in their lineups so I am expecting extremely high ownership but it is really hard to see any logical reason to fade her as the rest of the fights offer a mixed assortment of question marks. We could see a number of upsets which means you almost have to pay up for Rousey, take the guaranteed points and try to win some money elsewhere.
Odds to win: -440
Claudia Gadelha is one of my favorite DFS plays for UFC 160 especially on KounterMove. Her price vs odds show an incredible discrepancy in price. She is the far superior fighter to Aguilar who sort of just does everything well but nothing extraordinary. The only problem is this fight will most likely go to decision not giving us those precious knockout bonus points so that is the one issue to locking Gadelha throughout and the main reason why her price may seem lower then anticipated. I still like her to win this one and should provide a good start to the night for your DFS teams.
Odds to win: -225
Alves comes into this fight with an unblemished 9-0 record. To be honest he hasn’t been tested hard in his brief UFC career and I think that trend continues on Saturday night. He is fighting in front of his hometown crowd and is just too quick and powerful for his opponents. Although his knockout record is essentially non existent I think he is able to do enough to win the decision on Saturday night. His price is especially enticing on KounterMove as he is priced up a little high on DraftKings.
Odds to win: -320
Coming in as the second highest priced fighter on the board Lopes is priced so high because most are expecting a knockout early. If this fight goes to decision he is going to have a very hard time paying off his price tag. This is somewhat of a risk and rostering Lopes will make it incredibly tough to roster Rousey as well. So I see his ownership percentage being very low on Saturday. If you are looking for a contrarian play and off of Rousey, Lopes offers good odds for a knockout and should be low owned across both sites.
Odds to win: -165
I guess he does not technically belong on the UnderDogs list so I created a KounterMove special for him as he is sure priced like one KounterMove. Based solely on Vegas odds I think he is a must play on KounterMoves. It is not often you get a favorite priced this low. He should take care of business though as both him and Nogueira have some health concerns coming into this fight. Both are looking to right the ship or face retirement. I am siding with vegas on this one and think Struve should be able to take care of business at a reduced price. I would lock him into every lineup on KounterMove.
Odds to win: +170
Since I started off with my favorite KounterMove’s play, I had to counter that with my favorite DraftKings play. This is an upset special but Silvas price is just a tad to high on KounterMove. On DraftKings it is just right as I think he is the superior fighter here and is really fighting to continue his heavyweight career. This could turn into quite the brawl as Soa has a knack for landing some big punches. I think Silva has enough left in the tank and should be able to score the win at a reduced price on DraftKings.
Odds to win: +146
Neil Magny is an up and coming talent who has reeled off 7 consecutive wins. With that confidence behind him he gets to take on the veteran Maia. Maia is favored but I don’t think he is able to keep up with Magny. If Magny can land some early punches and avoid going to the ground with Maia he should take the win. Priced down significantly on DraftKings he is a good fighter to round out your lineups as he should land a significant amount of punches and there is little threat of an early stoppage or TKO.