The MLB DFS Strategy goes through our favorite pitchers and stacks for tonights 10 MLB games. We have some solid GPPs at both FanDuel and Draftkings along with some qualifiers to bigger tournaments coming up. A few weather concerns as well so make sure you have the latest weather forecast available before letting your rosters lock.
Cubs @ Pirates(-130) 6.5
Diamondbacks @ Nationals(-152) 8
Giants(-155) @ Braves 8
Mets(-113) @ Marlins 7
Padres(-109) @ Brewers 8
Astros(-123) @ Rangers 9
Rays @ White Sox(-123) 8
Orioles @ Athletics(-115) 7.5
Indians @ Angels(-124) 6.5
Mariners(-173) @ Rockies 9.5
Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians (FD $11,300, DK $11,700) – Kluber has a pretty tough match-up as the Angels are a potent team and are probably a bit frustrated after their performance against the Astros over the weekend. Kluber generally pitches better at home as his road ERA is nearly a full run more than his home ERA. His batting average allowed on the road is just .009 higher as it sits at .244. The one nice thing is the fact that his K rate skyrockets on the road as he averages about 8.5 per start on the road and just 7.2 at home. With that said, he has held right handed hitters to an average of .198. The Angels are a -124 favorite in this game and the over/under sits at 6.5 which is tied, with the game I will talk about with the next two pitchers, for the lowest of the night.
Francisco Liriano, Pittsburgh Pirates (FD $10,500, DK $10,800) – Liriano and the Pirates are a -130 home favorite in a game with an over/under of just 6.5 runs. The Cubs are very strikeout prone which should raise Liriano’s appeal as he was able to strikeout 9 Cubs in 5 innings in his only start of 2015 against them. He managed to hold them to 3 hits, but those 3 hits lead to 3 runs. Liriano’s average against on the season is just .201 and he is averaging just under 10 K’s per 9 innings on the season. I think Liriano will be one of the most popular options tonight and can make a case for fading him for the starter going up against him, however I think Liriano has a great match-up and should provide a nice stat line.
Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs (FD $10,000, DK $10,400) – As I said above, this game has an over/under of just 6.5 runs with Lester and the Cubs being a road under dog. Lester is coming off of a 14 K performance, which was easily his best outing of the season and faces a Pirates team that he went 7 innings against earlier this season and he managed to strikeout 7, while allowing just 1 run. He did scatter 9 hits which means the average allowed is a bit high for such a solid stat line. I think he makes a great sleeper in GPPs tonight as most will see his price so close to Liriano and they will opt for Liriano.
Wily Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers (FD $6800, DK $5800) – Peralta returned from a lengthy DL stint to throw 5 solid innings against the Giants last week and should be able to build off of that performance tonight against a Padre team that has struggled against right handed pitching. Peralta’s K numbers are a bit down compared to last year, but we do know that he is capable of racking up a handful of strikeouts. He is averaging nearly 7 innings per start at home, however he has given up 6 of his 8 home runs on the season at home. The Padres are a -109 road favorite in this one, which basically leans towards a pick em game and even though Ross is pitching for the Padres, I think Peralta comes out and shuts down the disappointing offense of the Padres.
Bartolo Colon, New York Mets (FD $6800, DK $6000) – I decided to go with Bartolo here as there seems to be some excitement surrounding the Mets right now after their sweep of the Nationals. I think Bartolo feeds off of that and puts up a respectable performance tonight against a Marlins team that he has thrown 20.2 innings against so far in 2015 and while he only has K’d 9 batters in those innings, he has allowed just 8 runs. His season K rate is higher on the road, however he does allow a few more hits per 9 on the road. With that said, the Mets are a -113 road favorite and the game has an over/under of just 7 runs.
Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners (FD $11,100, DK $9500) – King Felix is the ultimate GPP play tonight as he takes his skills to the mound at Coors in a game with an over/under of 9.5 runs. We recently saw Johnny Cueto go into Coors and fire a gem (and I wrote about him as a great GPP option that night). Hernandez has been extremely up and down so far in 2015 and he is coming off of a very rough start but he is still one of the absolute best starting pitchers in the majors. He is capable of shutting down any offense that he goes up against and I think tonight is going to be one of those nights as the Mariners are a -173 favorite.
Jose Quintana, Chicago White Sox (FD $8400, DK $8400) – Quintana and the White Sox are -123 home favorites tonight and the game has an over/under of 8 runs. Quintana had gotten better with each passing month in 2015 and gets an interesting match-up tonight as the Rays are generally pretty potent against left handed pitching. I actually am intrigued by both sides of this match-up which is what makes Quintana a solid GPP option as he is capable of really shutting a team down. He does struggle against right handed hitters as they have hit .297 against him this season. He has yet to face Tampa this season but did manage to throw 7.1 innings of 1 earned run baseball against them last season.
Seattle Mariners: Kyle Seager (FD $4200, DK $4700), Nelson Cruz (FD $5400, DK $5900), Robinson Cano (FD $4300, DK $5000), Mark Trumbo (FD $2300, DK $4000) – The Mariners travel to Coors tonight and are in a great spot against a young right handed pitcher. I really hope Trumbo finds his way into the lineup as he has raked in his career against the Rockies. I would certainly think about including Smith, Jackson and even Ketel Marte with any stack as there should be plenty of runs for the Mariners tonight.
Houston Astros: Jose Altuve (FD $4000, DK $4500), Carlos Gomez (FD $3700, DK $4100), Carlos Correa (FD $4500, DK $5300), Preston Tucker (FD $3100, DK $3600) – I love how dangerous the Houston Astros lineup is and they get to travel to Texas tonight where the ball jumps when it is hot outside. I actually can make a case for using just about anybody in the starting lineup tonight as lefties hit Lewis a lot better, however he is not afraid to give up the long ball to right handed hitters either.
Baltimore Orioles: Manny Machado (FD $4400, DK $4700), Gerardo Parra (FD $3600, DK $3900), Adam Jones (FD $3200, DK $4200), Chris Davis (FD $4100, DK $4400) – Chavez has really been smacked around by left handed hitters in 2015 and I expect that to happen again tonight as the Orioles are a pretty dangerous offense and guys like Machado and Jones can knock around right handed pitching at a very nice rate. I know this game had an over/under of just 7.5 runs, however I think the Orioles can put up runs in a hurry tonight against a struggling Chavez.
Tampa Bay Rays: Joey Butler (FD $2200, DK $3200), Evan Longoria (FD $2900, DK $3700), Logan Forsythe (FD $3400, DK $3600) – Like I said under Quintana above, I think both sides make interesting GPP options as the Rays are a lot better against left handed pitching however generally do not have a very potent lineup. It appears that the Rays are going pretty right hand heavy in tonight’s lineup as Kiermaier is the only left handed hitter. I think you can add Cabrera, Guyer and maybe Casali to make a full stack.
There are some big tournaments out there tonight across the industry and I think it will come down to the bats you choose to go with as I think the top handful of pitchers are going to be somewhat highly owned and for good reason this evening. There are a few weather concerns as there is rain in Pittsburgh, Washington, Atlanta and of course, Colorado. Make sure you do your homework on the weather to make sure your guys are safe to deploy. The Pittsburgh and Colorado games are the most important as two of the top pitchers are going in Pittsburgh and two of the top offenses are going in Colorado. I think Richards, McCullers and Karns are intriguing options tonight as well as the Giants, Nationals and the Mets bats. Best of luck everybody!