We have a full 15 game slate for MLB DFS tonight and loads of big guaranteed tournaments across the industry. This is also the last chance to qualify for some of the smaller sites live and end of year finals. Just a couple of weather concerns so make sure you have the latest forecast. We will go over my favorite pitchers and stacks in the MLB DFS Strategy.
Cubs(-121) @ Pirates 7
Dodgers(-200) @ Phillies 8
Diamondbacks @ Nationals(-194) 6.5
Giants(-116) @ Braves 7.5
Mets(-119) @ Marlins 7.5
Cardinals(-131) @ Reds 7.5
Padres @ Brewers(-120) 7.5
Royals @ Tigers(-106) 8.5
Twins @ Blue Jays(-170) 8.5
Red Sox @ Yankees(-192) 9
Astros(-105) @ Rangers 9.5
Rays @ White Sox(-128) 6.5
Orioles(-117) @ Athletics 7
Indians @ Angels(-121) 7
Mariners(-113) @ Rockies 11
Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals (FD $12,500, DK $13,500) – Scherzer takes the mound as a -194 home favorite as he looks to end the recent Nationals losing streak as they try to over take the Mets for first place in the East. Scherzer threw a gem in his first start against Arizona in 2015 as he went 7 innings and allowed just 1 run, while striking out 6. The D’Backs certainly have a dangerous lineup, however I think Scherzer comes out pretty motivated and focused tonight as the Nats really need him to be lights out.
Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox (FD $11,500, DK $12,000) – The next two guys face off against each other tonight as Sale and the White Sox are a -128 favorite in a game with an over/under of just 6.5 runs. Sale was rocked by the Red Sox in his last outing and I think he takes that game personally and comes out and is on top of his game. He struck out 12 in 6.2 innings the last time he faced the Rays but gave up a home run late to lose 2-1 in that game. The Rays certainly hit left handed pitching better than right handed, however Sale is capable of shutting every team down.
Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays (FD $11,000, DK $11,700) – Archer is the less heralded starter in this match-up tonight, however he is probably having the better season overall as he has just been dominant. The White Sox lineup had been on a roll and now it appears they are cooling down, which seems like the perfect storm for a 1-0 game tonight between these two teams. I think Sale is the better choice, however Archer is slightly cheaper and the extra money could come in handy. I am going to try and use both of them everywhere, maybe not together on multi pitcher sites but if I can find the bats, I would not be afraid to do so.
Jon Niese, New York Mets (FD $7500, DK $6100) – I do not think I have ever recommended Niese and generally I try to target bats against him, however he has been extremely solid in 5 of his last 6 starts and the Mets staff as a whole has been on a roll and I look for that to continue tonight against a punch-less Marlins lineup. Niese and the Mets are a -119 road favorite and this game has an over/under of just 7.5 runs.
Marco Estrada, Toronto Blue Jays (FD $8400, DK $6300) – Estrada and the Jays are a -170 favorite tonight against a Twins team that has really struggled against right handed pitching. The Twins do a lot of swinging and missing and that is key to Estrada’s starts as he doesn’t blow you away, but relies on locating his change up and setting it up to get swings and misses. Estrada has actually done his best pitching at home, which is odd considering it is such a hitter’s park. He has just a .211 average against when pitching in the Rogers Centre with an ERA of 3.17.
Alex Wood, Los Angeles Dodgers (FD $8200, DK $7400) – Wood and the Dodgers are a -200 road favorite tonight as they take on the Phillies. When you see that, you have to be thinking he is a must play right? Well, I am not sold on that as the Phillies are a better than average team against left handed pitching and they have hit Wood pretty well in their careers. This is Wood’s first start as a Dodger and he may be pretty pumped and may come out and shut down the Phillies or he could be nervous and really struggle, which would let the right handed bats of the Phillies to feast tonight. I lean more towards him succeeding than failing, however its not clear cut.
Jimmy Nelson, Milwaukee Brewers (FD $7600, DK $8200) – Nelson takes the mound a night after the Padres torched Nelson’s teammate, Wily Peralta. Nelson and the Brewers are a -120 favorite and the game has an over/under of just 7.5 runs. I wrote about Peralta last night and the same holds true for Nelson as the Padres really struggle against right handed pitching as they have a high K % against them. There are a couple of things that work in his favor as he has held hitters to an average of .207 at Miller Park so far in 2015 and his home ERA is 3.54. The one bad number is the fact that he has given up 10 of his 13 home runs at home.
Seattle Mariners: Kyle Seager (FD $4200, DK $3800), Nelson Cruz (FD $5400, DK $6100), Robinson Cano (FD $4300, DK $4700), Seth Smith (FD $3000, DK $3600) – I was torn on this stack as I was a big fan of Jon Gray going into the 2013 draft and had prayed my Twins could come away with him. He has a big time arm and the looks of a future number one. The issue is the Rockies organization seems to have pushed him to pitch to contact slightly more over the last year and a half, which I do not think is the best thing for him and his big time fastball and slider. With that said, making your MLB debut at Coors is a recipe for disaster and I think the entire Mariners lineup is in play tonight.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Joc Pederson (FD $2600, DK $3800), Adrian Gonzalez (FD $3300, DK $4000), Andre Ethier (FD $2700, DK $3100), Yasmani Grandal (FD $3400, DK $3500) – I am a huge fan of the Dodgers tonight and would suggest to pay attention to their lineup to see where they have guys slotted in as they have dropped Joc down recently, but I hope they decide to slide him back near the top for this match-up as Jerome Williams is far from intimidating. I think Rollins, Kendrick and Puig make interesting options added to the stack.
Toronto Blue Jays: Troy Tulowitzki (FD $4500, DK $3900), Josh Donaldson (FD $5000, DK $4700), Jose Bautista (FD $4900, DK $4500), Edwin Encarnacion (FD $4500, DK $4100) – The Blue Jays should be a pretty popular stack (tough to choose between them, Seattle and the Dodgers) tonight as they get to face an extreme fly ball pitcher at home. Phil Hughes gives up a lot of home runs and generally is tougher on left handed hitters which is a bad recipe for tonight’s match-up as the Blue Jays are extremely potent from the right side of the plate. Feel comfortable stacking 1-6 in this lineup and enjoy the rewards.
Colorado Rockies: Jose Reyes (FD $3300, DK $4800), Nolan Arenado (FD $4800, DK $5000), Drew Stubbs (FD $3000, DK $2600) – This stack has me wavering as they take on Vidal Nuno, who has been filthy against lefty handed hitting in his MLB career. I wish the Rockies had not optioned Rosario down to the minors as this is a match-up that screams Baby Bull. I like the right handed hitters in this lineup and would use whoever is in at catcher as well as Kyle Parker should he be in the lineup. If you wanted to be sneaky and somewhat contrarian, include a couple of the lefties.
I feel like tonight is going to continue the recent streak of extremely high scoring nights as there are a handful of top pitching options followed with some intriguing cheap pitchers to go along with some extremely dangerous lineups in positive hitting positions. I think teams like the Astros, Rangers, Yankees, Cardinals and Cubs are in great situations and a case can be made for full stacks of them as well as mini stacks to join other stacks. I have not mentioned pitchers like Arrieta, Carrasco, Shoemaker, Tanaka and Peavy as solid options to use to win ALLLLL the money tonight. It appears the weather should not be a factor after really destroying my night last night. There are some storms moving through the East Coast, however they are expected to clear out by game time and should make for an uninterrupted night of baseball for us.