We have a split 10 game slate for your MLB DFS needs today. The slate is broken up nicely with 4 games in the early slate and 6 games in the late slate. Some solid over unders are mixed in throughout the day so we should have a good day of DFS to target. Lets get into the MLB DFS Strategy where I will go over my favorite pitchers and stacks to target across both slates today.
Cardinals(-160) @ Reds 8
Dodgers(-275) @ Phillies 7
Padres @ Brewers(-120) 8.5
Diamondbacks @ Nationals(-160) 7.5
Marlins @ Braves(-120) 7.5
Giants @ Cubs(-135)
Royals(-125) @ Tigers 8.5
Red Sox @ Yankees(-153) 9
Twins @ Blue Jays(-185) 8.5
Astros(-132) @ Athletics 7.5
Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers (FD $12,600, DK $13,500) – Greinke faces the Phillies for the second time this season and in his first start against them he went 8 innings and struck out 8 while allowing just 1 hit. Those are basically the numbers that he has allowed all season long in day games as he has made 5 day starts and has an ERA of 0.49 to go with a batting average allowed of .160. He and the Dodgers are a -275 favorite in this one with the lowest over/under of the day/night sitting at 7 runs. He’s expensive, but I dont know how you can fade the match-up and the numbers.
Michael Wacha, St Louis Cardinals (FD $8900, DK $10,400) – Wacha and the Cardinals are a -160 road favorite in this game at Cincinnati and the game has an over/under of 8 runs. Wacha has held Phillips, Bruce, Byrd and Hamilton to a combined 3 for 65 against him in their careers. The two other bats to worry about, Frazier and Votto, are a combined 11 for 34. The good news for Wacha is that Frazier has been ice cold, so really he just needs to work carefully to Votto and he should be in great shape.
Jason Hammel, Chicago Cubs (FD $8500, DK $10,300) – The game between the Giants and Cubs has not had an over/under posted as of yet, which makes me believe there is some wind in play in Chicago tonight so you will want to pay attention to that. Should the wind be blowing in, I think Hammel and even Heston make excellent plays. I think Hammel makes an interesting play tonight as people will see his DK price and avoid him because that number seems so high. Hammel has thrown extremely well at home as he has allowed a batting average of just .219. Hammel and the Cubs are a -135 favorite in this game.
Matt Wisler, Atlanta Braves (FD $6300, DK $7400) – With the way the Braves are playing, it is not often that I can recommend one of their pitchers as a value play. Tonight they get to face a pretty weak Marlins team at home as a -120 favorite. Wisler has been immensely better at home so far in his short MLB career as he has an average against of just .217 and an ERA of 2.33 when pitching in Atlanta as compared to .325 and 5.93 on the road. He struggled badly in his most recent start, but that was after going 4-0 in July. I think he makes an intriguing SP2 on DK as I do not think his K upside is enough to make him a choice on FD.
Joe Ross, Washington Nationals (FD $7000, DK $8700) – Ross and the Nationals are a -160 favorite at home against the Diamondbacks this afternoon. Ross has a K/BB ratio of 10/1 so far in his MLB career and he has managed 40 strikeouts 39 ML innings. He has been lethal against right handed hitters as they have hit just .165 against him. Lefties have fared a lot better against him as they have a .300 average to go with a .533 slugging. The D’Backs have some potent left handed hitters, however their best players hit from the right side and Ross should be able to control them.
Chris Heston, San Francisco Giants (FD $7900, DK $9800) – As I listed under Hammel, this game does not have an over/under posted yet, which makes me intrigued to see which side of the match-ups are in the best spots as the wind can dictate so much in Wrigley. Heston was spectacular in July as he went 3-0 with a .193 average against, but he struggled greatly in his first August start as he allowed 9 baserunners in 4.2 innings which lead to 3 runs allowed. He has struggled more on the road, which is a scary thing, however both of his CG’s (1 no hitter) have come on the road. The Cubs strike out a bunch and Heston has shown flashes of excellence in his rookie year.
Yordano Ventura, Kansas City Royals (FD $8000, DK $7600) – As a former baseball player, I really do not like Ventura and the way he carries himself on the field, however when you put that aside you get a player who has tremendous stuff that just has not figured it out yet. With that said, I think he makes an interesting GPP option against a weakened Tigers lineup. I want to believe that the addition of Cueto will have a positive effect on the starting pitching in KC and hopefully he can straighten Ventura out. Ventura has pitched better on the road this season and his overall .262 average against is not terrible, so I would expect his ERA to lower as the season winds down.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Howie Kendrick (FD $5000, DK $5300), Adrian Gonzalez (FD $5000, DK $5200), Andre Ethier (FD $4500, DK $4100), Yasiel Puig (FD $5000, DK $5500) – Buchanan has been pretty bad all season and generally gives it up to both righties and lefties, however lefties are the main beneficiary of his weak stuff as they are hitting .333 against him in 2015. With that said, I like the entire Dodgers lineup tonight as they have really disappointed the last couple of nights, but they showed some signs of life in the game last night against Harang. Pederson is seeing the ball extremely well and it is only a matter of time before he starts launching bombs.
New York Yankees: Jacoby Ellsbury (FD $3600, DK $4600), Chris Young (FD $3200, DK $3300), Alex Rodriguez (FD $4300, DK $5300), Mark Teixeira (FD $4300, DK $5400) – The Yankees were really shut down last night by Steven Wright and even though I recommended them I really had a feeling that it could happen as they have been on a roll lately and generally a team falls flat when expectations get so high. With that said, they get to face a lefty tonight and they have been destroying left handed pitching of late and really for the whole season. I would think about using others in the lineup as Rodriguez has actually been tougher on right handed hitters than left handed hitters so far in his short MLB career.
St Louis Cardinals: Matt Carpenter (FD $3200, DK $4800), Randall Grichuk (FD $3700, DK $4500), Jason Heyward (FD $3700, DK $4400), Jhonny Peralta (FD $3000, DK $4100) – The Cardinals are projected to be one of the highest scoring teams on the day/night and they get to face Michael Lorenzen. The game does have some weather concerns so make sure to pay attention to the forecast. I really like the lefties of the Cardinals so you can certainly include Brandon Moss in a stack, as well as Piscotty, should he be in the lineup.
Toronto Blue Jays: Troy Tulowitzki (FD $5000, DK $2000), Josh Donaldson (FD $6200, DK $3900), Jose Bautista (FD $5200, DK $4000), Edwin Encarnacion (FD $4500, DK $4200) – I finally was able to move the Blue Jays from the Stud category down to the Other category! Well, I guess it was not really based on match-up, but more based on the fact that their prices are getting into the insane range. Kyle Gibson has surprised so far this season and threw a quality start against Toronto earlier this season. This game has an over/under of 8.5 runs and the Blue Jays are -185 favorites which means they are expected to be the highest scoring team of the day/night. I would look at being a bit different and possibly stacking the 5-9 spots, depending on the lineup.
We have a split slate today as we get 5 games in the afternoon and then finish it off with 5 games tonight. I did not mention much about the Twins-Blue Jays other than the Jays stack as they are always in a great spot, even though they are extremely expensive. With that said, I am torn which side of the Twins vs Buehrle side I like the most as Buehrle has been excellent this season, however the Twins mash against left handed pitching. I think both sides are interesting GPP options. The Astros are struggling a little bit and that makes me intrigued by Aaron Brooks of the Oakland A’s who pitched extremely well in his first start with the A’s. Because the Astros have been struggling, you might be able to stack them at a pretty low ownership % tonight. I think there is going to be some offense in the SD-Mil game this afternoon and think you can stack either or both sides as the game has an over/under of 8.5 runs.
(since he disappointed a lot of people last night)