We have an awesome night of MLB DFS action for Friday night. We have loads of top end pitching talent and little to no weather concerns. There are some big time GPPs at both FanDuel and DraftKings. Lets get into my favorite pitchers and stacks in the MLB DFS Strategy.
Dodgers(-140) @ Pirates 6
Rockies @ Nationals(-160) 7.5
Marlins(-150) @ Braves 6.5
Cardinals(-145) @ Brewers 7.5
Reds @ Diamondbacks
Phillies @ Padres(-160) 6.5
Red Sox @ Tigers(-130) 9
Blue Jays @ Yankees(-116) 9
Twins @ Indians(-132) 8
White Sox @ Royals(-160) 8
Orioles @ Angels(-130) 7
Astros(-120) @ Athletics 6.5
Rangers @ Mariners(-110) 6.5
Mets(-120) @ Rays 6.5
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers (FD $13,400, DK $15,000) – We finally have a Kershaw game in which he is not a gigantic favorite. He and the Dodgers are a -140 road favorite as they take on Gerrit Cole and the Pittsburgh Pirates. This game has an over/under of just 6 runs tonight, which means we need to be all over the pitching in this match-up. The price attached to Kershaw makes it extremely tough to run out there in your lineups. I think Kershaw is going to be extremely under owned tonight, based on the fact it is a tough match-up but mostly on that price tag. There are a number of cheaper options in similar run total games.
Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins (FD $11,000, DK $13,000) – Fernandez and the Marlins are sitting at a -150 road favorite against Teheran and the Braves tonight. This is another game with a low over/under as it sits at just 6.5 runs. Fernandez has held the Braves roster to an average of .162 and the 3 extra base hits that he has allowed to Braves players have been allowed to guys who are currently injured. Fernandez has made 2 road starts so far in 2015 and has held batters to an average of just .188 and has K’d 17 in those two starts.
Jacob deGrom, New York Mets (FD $11,1000, DK $12,100) – deGrom is probably my top option of the night as he is priced better overall than the two guys above and with all of the different pitching options going tonight, he should be somewhat under owned compared to what he probably should be on any given night. deGrom has allowed a road average of .185 so far this season, which is below the season average against of .199. The one thing that stands out to me is the fact that he has given up 7 of his 9 home runs allowed in 2015 have been on the road. In 2015, right handed hitters are hitting .177 against him and the Rays tend to have a decent amount of right handed hitters in their lineup. The Mets and deGrom are just a -120 favorite in this one, which I think is a little low with how they have been playing and the game has an over/under of 6.5.
Daniel Norris, Detroit Tigers (FD $6000, DK $6400) – Norris made his first start after being traded to the Tigers on Aug 2nd and went into Baltimore and shut down the Orioles offense and I expect to see some starts like that as the season winds down. Norris was a top pitching prospect in baseball over the last few seasons and he struggled with Toronto earlier in the year but seems to have straightened things out in the minors. He has actually had slight reverse splits so far in his young MLB career as righties are hitting just .222 against him in 2015. This game does have an over/under of 9 runs, but the Tigers are a -130 favorite in this game.
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies (FD $6100, DK $6000) – Nola has held right handed hitters to an average of just .158 through his first 3 major league starts and the Padres struggle mightily against right handed pitching. This game has an over/under of 6.5 tonight and the Phillies have been the “best” team in baseball since the All-Star break as they have been racking up victories, somehow. With that said, Nola and the Phillies are a decent sized underdog in this one as the Padres are sitting at -160. The one scary thing about Nola’s numbers so far is the fact that he has allowed 4 home runs already.
Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros (FD $10,700, DK $11,900) – Keuchel has thrown 16 innings against the A’s so far in 2015 and has given up just 1 unearned run while striking out 8 batters. As long as he avoids Danny Valencia and his 5 for 9 with 3 extra base hits, against him, I think Keuchel is in a great spot and if the A’s were throwing somebody other than Gray I would be touting Keuchel as my number 1 option for tonight. This game has an over/under of 6.5 runs and the Astros are a -120 road favorite.
Sonny Gray, Oakland Athletics (FD $10,300, DK $11,200) – Gray had a rough start the last time he faced the Astros as they got to him for 3 runs in 5 innings and managed to reach base 10 times while striking out just 4 times. With that said, the Astros bats are struggling a little bit right now and they can certainly struck out a ton. Gray’s teammate, Aaron Brooks, really shut them down last night through 7 innings as he struck out 7 and allowed just 1 run. As I said under Keuchel, the game is basically a pick em with an over/under of just 6.5 runs.
Toronto Blue Jays: Troy Tulowitzki (FD $4500, DK $4300), Josh Donaldson (FD $5300, DK $5500), Jose Bautista (FD $4900, DK $4800), Edwin Encarnacion (FD $4600, DK $4500) – At this point, do I really need to explain this stack to you guys? This game has the highest over/under of the night as they take on the Yankees @ Yankee Stadium. Eovaldi has been pretty solid pitching at home, however he has not faced an offense like this and I think you can stack anybody in the top 6 of this lineup and you could probably add Revere from the 9 spot if he is in there.
New York Yankees: Jacoby Ellsbury (FD $3500, DK $4100), Brett Gardner (FD $3600, DK $4600), Alex Rodriguez (FD $4300, DK $4700), Mark Teixeira (FD $4200, DK $4900) – The other side of the game with the highest over/under of the night is the Yankees facing off against R.A. Dickey. The Yankees do not have all that great of numbers in their careers against Dickey and Steven Wright showed us the other night what knuckle ballers can do against this Yankees lineup, however, outside of the Blue Jays, there has not been a more potent offense than the Yankees over the last couple of weeks. I would certainly include McCann and probably Beltran and even Didi for a cheap option in this stack. Much like the Jays against Eovaldi, the Yankees do not have very good career numbers against Dickey, however its tough to bet against an offense as hot as the Yankees.
Detroit Tigers: Jose Iglesias (FD $2500, DK $3200), Ian Kinsler (FD $3800, DK $4300), Victor Martinez (FD $2500, DK $3500), J.D. Martinez (FD $3800, DK $5200) – I have been all over using the Tigers since they dealt Price and Cespedes and that will continue tonight as they get to take their hacks against a struggling Joe Kelly. Right handed hitters have dominated Kelly so far in 2015 as they are slugging .474 and have an OPS of .860 against him. Lefties have fared pretty well as well as they have a slugging of .432. He has allowed 32 extra base hits in just 88.1 innings. I think you can get away with stacking anybody in this lineup and I kind of hope they have Rajai Davis in the lineup.
Kansas City Royals: Lorenzo Cain (FD $3600, DK $4700), Kendrys Morales (FD $3000, DK $4000), Salvador Perez (FD $2400, DK $3200) – Here is where I pick on the shocking John Danks. Danks has been dominant over his last handful of starts, but those starts have come at home and tonight he gets to face a lefty mashing lineup on the road. I listed my top 3 choices above, however I believe you can stack anybody in this lineup, left or right, against Danks. I think this will be a somewhat under owned stack as the Royals have not exactly been destroying the baseball.
What a slate for a Friday night as we get a TON of pitching options that fall in or near the top tier. We have 7 pitchers priced above 10K on DK as well as 7 on FD. If you break that down, that is 25% of the available pitching options are priced above 10K tonight and if you add in the guys priced above 8K, you get 4 more on DK and 8 more on FD. On FD that would be 15 of the 28 options being at or above 8K. The sites are certainly making it tough to build a lineup around our favorite pitching options or even around our favorite hitting options. We have an over/under at 6.5 or less in 6 of the 14 games tonight, which is insane compared to what we normally have as we generally get 1 or 2 to fall into that range. We have just 2 games at or above 8.5, which is another really shocking number. Some of the arms that I did not get to mention are Lance Lynn, Cole Hamels, Gerrit Cole, Jake Odorizzi, Andrew Heaney, James Shields, Jordan Zimmermann, Julio Teheran and Raisel Iglesias. You could even discuss R.A. Dickey even though the Yankees are one of my top stacks. Some of the bats that I was not able to mention are the Cardinals, Indians, Twins, Reds, White Sox and the Rangers against a homer prone Iwakuma.