We have a fun Sunday of MLB DFS action slated for today. Loads of offenses look like they could put up some runs so I expect pitchers to be highly owned and some of the bats to be more spread out. Lets take a closer look at the game lines then go over my favorite plays in the MLB DFS Strategy.
Rockies @ Nationals(-245) 6.5
Dodgers(-120) @ Pirates 8
Cardinals(-140) @ Brewers 7.5
Reds @ Diamondbacks(-150) 8.5
Phillies @ Padres(-185) 7.5
Marlins @ Braves(-150) 7
Giants @ Cubs(-172)
Red Sox @ Tigers(-124) 9
Blue Jays @ Yankees(-140) 8.5
Twins @ Indians(-165) 7
White Sox @ Royals(-134) 8
Orioles @ Angels
Astros(-107) @ Athletics 7.5
Rangers @ Mariners(-170) 7
Mets @ Rays(-175) 6.5
Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals (FD $12,300, DK $13,200) – Scherzer is the largest favorite on the board as the game sits at -245 with an over/under of just 6.5 runs. Scherzer has not been the same as the season has gone on and his ERA has been slightly higher each month. With that said, Scherzer is as dominant as any pitcher in the game and the Rockies offense has very little potency, especially outside of Gonzalez, Arenado and possibly Blackmon. Nationals Park should be buzzing after Strasburg’s return yesterday and Scherzer is a bulldog who feeds off of emotion. This could be one of those jaw dropping starts from Scherzer.
Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays (FD $11,200, DK $12,300) – Archer and the Rays are a -175 favorite and this game also has an over/under of just 6.5 runs. Archer has held hitters to an average of .201 at home and that average drops to .165 when he pitches during the day. He also has a K/9 rate of just over 11 when pitching at home and the Mets offense, even though they have been upgraded, still has some weakness to it.
Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners (FD $11,000, DK $10,500) – Hernandez has thrown 13.2 innings against the Rangers so far in 2015 and has allowed just 3 runs and 7 hits while striking out 16 batters. They have an average of just .152 against him this season and the roster has an average of .229. The Mariners and Hernandez are -170 favorites in this game and it has an over/under of 7 runs. He might be my favorite of the 3 studs today as he is the cheapest and has such a great history pitching in SafeCo.
Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers (FD $7500, DK $6300) – Verlander and the Tigers are just a -124 home favorite in a game with the highest over/under of the slate as it sits at 9 runs. Verlander has made one start against the Red Sox in 2015 and managed to fire 8 strong innings of 7 hit and 1 run baseball. He only struck out 3 in that game but has looked stronger of late as he seems to be throwing harder. The one big issue for Verlander has been the long ball in 2015 as he has given up 10 of them in just 57 innings. Six of those home runs have come in just 26.2 home innings. The Red Sox lineup just has not started clicking in 2015 and it is basically a lost season for them at this point. The only hitter that really scares me in the Red Sox lineup is David Ortiz.
Chris Bassitt, Oakland Athletics (FD $6200, DK $5500) – Bassitt and the Oakland A’s are a very slight underdog (the game is basically a pick em at this point) against the Houston Astros and the game has an over/under of 7.5. Bassitt has thrown 4.1 innings against the Astros so far in 2015 and has allowed an average of just .125 as they managed just 2 hits against him. When pitching at home this season, he has an ERA of 2.03 and an average against of just .207 and has a whip under 1.00 and 25 strikeouts in 31 innings. He is coming off of his best start of the season as he shut out the Orioles over 7 innings and managed to strikeout 7.
Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians (FD $11,000, DK $10,600) – The Indians and Kluber are -165 home favorites against the Twins with a 7 over/under. Kluber has dominated the Twins in his career up to this point and I do not see that changing. Kluber has been really up and down in 2015 and when you pair that with the fact that the Twins have put up some runs in this series, you get a perfect GPP recipe for today. Kluber is capable of striking out 12+ any given day and today might be one of those days. Kluber has a 2.99 ERA when pitching at home in 2015.
Jimmy Nelson, Milwaukee Brewers (FD $7800, DK $8300) – Nelson is slightly different than Kluber as he has struggled against his opponent in 2015 as he has an ERA of 10.80 against the Cardinals. The Cardinals are a decent -140 favorite in this game as Nelson gets to pitch at home and the game has an over/under of 7.5. Nelson has been a ton better when pitching at Miller Park in his rookie year as his ERA sits at 3.19, his average against is just .200 and he has 64 K’s in 67.2 innings. The one big issue is that he has given up 10 home runs in 10 home starts as compared to just 3 home runs in 12 road starts. Nelson struggles against left handed hitters and the Cardinals can run out a pretty strong left handed heavy lineup. With that said, I think Nelson is extremely sneaky as the Cardinals are capable of striking out in bunches.
Detroit Tigers: Jose Iglesias (FD $2400, DK $3100), Ian Kinsler (FD $4100, DK $4300), Victor Martinez (FD $2800, DK $3400), J.D. Martinez (FD $3900, DK $4700) – It’s gotten to be quite funny how the Tigers have found their way into my stacks over the last week and a half considering their waving of the white flag. They have been in some very positive spots and have come through in most of them. I love the Tigers lineup against a lefty and today they face a rookie left hander making just his second career start. I think you can consider Davis, Castellanos and McCann in this game as well.
New York Yankees: Jacoby Ellsbury (FD $3400, DK $4500), Brett Gardner (FD $3400, DK $4800), Alex Rodriguez (FD $4200, DK $4700), Mark Teixeira (FD $4200, DK $5300) – The Yankees got to Estrada earlier this season and managed 5 runs in less than 5 innings against him. They should be in for something very similar today as this game should have some offense in it. I definitely would include McCann and probably Beltran in any stack. You can certainly add in Gregorius for a cheap play. Teixeira has a pretty sweet history against Estrada as he is 2 for 5 with 2 home runs.
Toronto Blue Jays: Troy Tulowitzki (FD $4300, DK $3900), Josh Donaldson (FD $5600, DK $5000), Jose Bautista (FD $5100, DK $4600), Edwin Encarnacion (FD $4900, DK $4300) – The Blue Jays find themselves here yet again as I just can not take them away as they are so dangerous that you should probably stack them every day. The match-up against Tanaka is not necessarily the best, however they do have some decent career numbers against him, especially Encarnacion.
Washington Nationals: Anthony Rendon (FD $3000, DK $3600), Bryce Harper (FD $4500, DK $5700), Ryan Zimmerman (FD $2600, DK $3700), Ian Desmond (FD $3100, DK $3500) – I love the Nationals against a left handed pitcher and that is the spot we find them in today. As I said yesterday (as they were originally scheduled to face today’s starter) I am eager to see how this team performs now that they are nearly 100% healthy and have all of their pieces in the lineup on a daily basis. Escobar, Werth and Ramos are definitely in play as additions to the stack.
Today is a day that I wish I was able to give you about 8 stacks to roll with as I think there are a lot of teams in positive spots to put up some runs today. The next 4 teams on my stack list are the Mariners going up against Colby Lewis, the Angels taking their hacks against Miguel Gonzalez, the Cardinals against Jimmy Nelson (yes I know I have Nelson in my GPP plays section, but both sides are intriguing for different reasons) and the Royals against Jose Quintana. A lot of the bats in those games have very positive BvP numbers over their careers. Arrieta, Wood, Lackey, Cashner and Miller are some other pitching options that could and should be used throughout GPP lineups. Arrieta is somebody that can be used in cash games as well as he has been the Cubs #1 this season.