We have another split slate of MLB action for our DFS contests today with a 5 game slate locking this afternoon and 10 games going off in the night slate. Lets take a quick look at the game lines and then get into my favorite pitchers and stacks to target for both the early and late slate on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Phillies @ Diamondbacks(-165) 8.5
Reds @ Padres(-140) 6.5
Rockies @ Mets(-190) 6.5
Brewers @ Cubs(-180)
Pirates @ Cardinals(-125) 6.5
Nationals @ Dodgers(-210) 6
Orioles @ Mariners(-130) 7
Athletics @ Blue Jays(-210) 8.5
Yankees @ Indians(-140) 7.5
Angels(-125) @ White Sox 8.5
Tigers @ Royals(-175) 8
Rangers @ Twins(-115) 9
Astros @ Giants(-140) 7
Red Sox(-120) @ Marlins 7.5
Braves @ Rays(-195) 7
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers (FD $13,000, DK $14,200) – Kershaw and the Dodgers are a -210 favorite in this game and the over/under sits at just 6 runs as of now. I am a little shocked that the Dodgers are such a huge favorite given the opposing pitcher, Jordan Zimmermann. Kershaw has made one start against the Nationals so far in 2015 and he went 8 shutout innings, allowing just 3 hits and managed 14 strikeouts. That start had a pretty watered down Nationals lineup to contend with and now Kershaw gets to face them at nearly full strength and I do not expect the sledding to be as easy as it was the last time as both Zimmerman and Werth hit Kershaw very well as they have 16 hits in 42 at-bats against Kershaw. The price is sky high and for that reason he may be under owned.
Jacob deGrom, New York Mets (FD $11,300, DK $11,400) – deGrom and the Mets are a -190 home favorite against the Rockies and the game has an over/under of 6.5 runs. deGrom has been extremely dominant at home so far this season as he has an ERA of 1.60 while averaging over a strikeout per inning and allowing just 2 home runs in 73 home innings. deGrom will be the most popular play of the day/night and for great reason as the Mets are playing some really good baseball. He has allowed just 2 hits in 19 at-bats to current Rockies players (I know, small sample size).
Jake Odorizzi, Tampa Bay Rays (FD $8800, DK $9900) – Odorizzi and the Rays are a -195 favorite and the game has a pretty solid over/under at just 7 runs. Odorizzi has made one start in 2015 against the Braves and he went 6 innings and allowed just 2 runs, but only managed to strikeout 2. Odorizzi has been extremely dominant at home as he has an ERA of just 1.40 with an average against of .185 and 52 strikeouts in just 51.1 innings. To go along with his home dominance, he has also dominated left handed hitters as they have a .328 slugging to go with 61 strikeouts in 235 at-bats. I think Odorizzi will go under owned due to his price as it is a bit high, especially on DK.
Eduardo Rodriguez, Boston Red Sox (FD $7900, DK $9900) – Rodriguez is not priced as a value on DK but his price on FD seems way to low considering the match-up. Rodriguez and the Red Sox are a -120 road favorite and this game offers us an over/under of 7.5 runs. Rodriguez has been a ton better when pitching on the road this season as his road ERA sits at 2.86 and his average against is a very nice .219. He has actually been tougher against right handed hitters so far in his young career and the Marlins are a team that will generally try to load up their lineup with opposite handed hitters.
Andrew Heaney, Los Angeles Angels (FD $7100, DK $8600) – Heaney and the Angels are a -125 favorite in Chicago tonight and I think they manage to break their 8 game road losing streak tonight as they get to face John Danks. Heaney is coming off of his worst start of 2015 as he gave up 4 runs over 5.2 innings, but managed to earn a no-decision. He has thrown his best on the road in 2015 as he has an ERA of 1.83, while allowing just 1 home run and an average of .233 when pitching away from home.
Michael Wacha, St Louis Cardinals (FD $9100, DK $10,100) – Wacha is the home favorite in a tough match-up against Gerritt Cole and the Pirates. The Cardinals are a -125 favorite and this game is projected to be one of the lowest scoring of the night as it has an over/under of 6.5 runs. Wacha has thrown 12.2 innings against the Pirates so far in 2015 and has an ERA of 1.42 to go with an average allowed of .224. The one big number that hopefully is better this game is the fact that he has only struck out 3 in those 12.2 innings. Wacha has been superb at home this season as he has an ERA of 2.51 and an average allowed of .203.
Mark Buehrle, Toronto Blue Jays (FD $7800, DK $7000) – Buehrle and the Blue Jays are a huge -210 home favorite in this game against the Athletics. Buehrle has made 1 start against the A’s in 2015 and was excellent in that start as he went 7 innings, allowing just 1 run and striking out 3 en route to the win. Buerhle has made 10 home starts in 2015 and over those 10 starts has allowed an average of .238 as compared to .282 on the road. His strikeout numbers a quite a bit better when pitching at home as well as he has 3 more K’s at home in 17.1 less innings.
Los Angeles Angels: Shane Victorino (FD $2200, DK $2700), Mike Trout (FD $5000, DK $5500), Albert Pujols (FD $4000, DK $4200), Kole Calhoun (FD $3500, DK $4100) – I always look forward to stacking up against John Danks and tonight is that night as the Angels get to take their hacks against him. I would be comfortable taking anybody within the top 6 or so of the lineup tonight and if you have a utility spot on your favorite site, I would certainly look to use C.J. Cron. I wanted to list him above but just could not choose him over Pujols.
Texas Rangers: Prince Fielder (FD $3900, DK $4800), Adrian Beltre (FD $3400, DK $4000), Mitch Moreland (FD $3300, DK $4400), Josh Hamilton (FD $2800, DK $3800) – The Rangers have a .387 career average against Pelfrey covering 82 at-bats and they are in a great spot to add to those numbers tonight as Pelfrey has begun to struggle. I would definitely think about DeShields, Andrus and Choo as they should be somewhere in this lineup as well.
New York Mets: Yoenis Cespedes (FD $3600, DK $4200), Juan Uribe (FD $3000, DK $2800), Michael Cuddyer (FD $2400, DK $3100), Wilmer Flores (FD $2400, DK $3200) – The Mets get to take on their second left handed pitcher in a row and they should be in a good spot to succeed again as I would consider Duda, Murphy, Granderson (all lefties, I know) and d’Arnaud. I might be willing to jump on the Lagaras train as well as he had a solid night in the lead-off spot last night.
Toronto Blue Jays: Troy Tulowitzki (FD $4300, DK $4900), Josh Donaldson (FD $5600, DK $6100), Jose Bautista (FD $5100, DK $5800), Edwin Encarnacion (FD $4800, DK $4500) – I was thisssssssss close to leaving the Blue Jays off as I am a closet fan of Aaron Brooks (Oakland’s Pitcher, not the Chicago Bull weak point guard). I just can not leave off such a dangerous team as I think it pays to always run out a Blue Jays stack, no matter the night as these guys are all capable of multi-dong games. Colabello looked really good last night and could certainly be an option, especially if Encarnacion misses another game.
My initial thoughts about today/tonight were that there is a lot of upper-middle tier pitching options to choose from and a number of them make sneaky GPP options and I think the slate is going to come down to how you choose your pitching as I believe the “stacks” are going to be somewhat popular. I also believe that Heston and Sabathia should be priced higher and are 2 names that I really like in addition to the ones I listed above. Of the teams that I have not mentioned anything about, the Cubs are in a great spot to explode as Matt Garza has had trouble this season, even though he has been pitching better of late. He just is not a hard thrower any more and the Cubs are a top offense in terms of potency on any given night.