Welcome back for another week of DFS NASCAR and welcome to one of NASCAR’s fastest tracks. This article will once again focus on the rules of fantasy NASCAR on DraftKings and breakdown what’s important to pay attention to. Following that, we will dive into strategy for this week.
ATTENTION: There has been TWO rule changes, effective 8/2: “Pass Differential” will no longer be scored and has been removed from the system. Also, the number of drivers you are required to roster has gone from 5 to 6.
What’s important to know: You will select 6 drivers, staying within a $50,000 salary cap.
Final Position: This is the easy one. The higher your driver finishes, the more points you receive. A 1st place finish receives 46 PTS, while 43rd will receive 1 PT.
Fastest Laps: Each time your driver runs the fastest lap, you will receive +0.5 PTS. Your driver, while unlikely, will have the potential to earn a maximum of (0.5) X (# of laps in the race) PTS.
Laps Led: For each lap your driver leads, you will receive +0.25 PTS. It’s as simple as that.
Place Differential: Place differential will be determined by the difference from where your driver starts, to where he/she finishes. So, if your select driver starts 1st, he/she cannot have a positive place differential. (Example: if your driver qualifies 20th and finishes 10th, he/she will have receive +10 PTS for a positive 10 in the place differential category). Note: If your selected driver has to go to the back at the start of the race for any reason (backup car, engine change) he/she will still maintain the position he/she qualified, for fantasy purposes.
KEVIN HARVICK 9-2
KYLE BUSCH 7-1
JIMMIE JOHNSON 8-1
KURT BUSCH 8-1
BRAD KESELOWSKI 8-1
JOEY LOGANO 8-1
MATT KENSETH 8-1
MARTIN TRUEX JR 8-1
CARL EDWARDS 15-1
DALE EARNHARDT JR 12-1
JEFF GORDON 18-1
DENNY HAMLIN 18-1
KASEY KAHNE 25-1
KYLE LARSON 30-1
JAMIE McMURRAY 60-1
PAUL MENARD 60-1
TONY STEWART 75-1
RYAN NEWMAN 100-1
CLINT BOWYER 100-1
GREG BIFFLE 100-1
AUSTIN DILLON 100-1
RYAN BLANEY 100-1
DAVID RAGAN 200-1
ARIC ALMIROLA 300-1
AJ ALLMENDINGER 500-1
RICKY STENHOUSE JR 500-1
DANICA PATRICK 500-1
CASEY MEARS 500-1
TREVOR BAYNE 500-1
(via Sporting News)
1. (20) Matt Kenseth, Toyota, 197.488 mph. $9,700
2. (11) Denny Hamlin, Toyota, 196.99. $8,400
3. (19) Carl Edwards, Toyota, 196.276. $9,000
4. (3) Austin Dillon, Chevrolet, 195.918. $7,300
5. (14) Tony Stewart, Chevrolet, 195.477. $7,600
6. (18) Kyle Busch, Toyota, 195.45. $10,100 (Note: Busch will start 43rd because of switch to backup car.)
7. (4) Kevin Harvick, Chevrolet, 195.249. $10,600
8. (48) Jimmie Johnson, Chevrolet, 195.228. $9,700
9. (88) Dale Earnhardt Jr., Chevrolet, 194.884. $9,300
10. (22) Joey Logano, Ford, 194.405. $9,600
11. (5) Kasey Kahne, Chevrolet, 194.133. $8,200
12. (15) Clint Bowyer, Toyota, 193.606. $7,400
13. (55) David Ragan, Toyota, 193.632. $7,300
14. (2) Brad Keselowski, Ford, 193.554. $9,500
15. (9) Sam Hornish Jr., Ford, 193.476. $5,600
16. (41) Kurt Busch, Chevrolet, 193.309. $9,900
17. (31) Ryan Newman, Chevrolet, 193.309. $7,100
18. (1) Jamie McMurray, Chevrolet, 193.149. $7,900
19. (21) Ryan Blaney, Ford, 193.128. $7,300
20. (16) Greg Biffle, Ford, 193.029. $7,100
21. (24) Jeff Gordon, Chevrolet, 193.009. $8,500
22. (78) Martin Truex Jr., Chevrolet, 192.921. $9,600
23. (10) Danica Patrick, Chevrolet, 192.771. $7,200
24. (27) Paul Menard, Chevrolet, 192.622. $7,800
25. (6) Trevor Bayne, Ford, 192.005. $7,100
26. (47) AJ Allmendinger, Chevrolet, 191.826. $7,400
27. (17) Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Ford, 191.586. $7,200
28. (51) Justin Allgaier, Chevrolet, 191.367. $5,800
29. (26) Jeb Burton, Toyota, 190.713. $5,200
30. (43) Aric Almirola, Ford, 190.527. $7,400
31. (40) Landon Cassill, Chevrolet, 190.049. $5,300
32. (83) Matt DiBenedetto, Toyota, 190.049. $5,200
33. (7) Alex Bowman, Chevrolet, 189.384. $5,300
34. (42) Kyle Larson, Chevrolet, 189.23. $8,100
35. (35) Cole Whitt, Ford, 189.091. $5,500
36. (38) David Gilliland, Ford, 188.927. $5,700
37. (23) J.J. Yeley, Toyota, Owner Points. $5,200
38. (34) Brett Moffitt, Ford, Owner Points. $5,400
39. (46) Michael Annett, Chevrolet, Owner Points. $5,300
40. (13) Casey Mears, Chevrolet, Owner Points. $7,200
41. (32) Josh Wise, Ford, Owner Points. $5,300
42. (33) Travis Kvapil, Chevrolet, Owner Points. (N/A)
43. (98) Timmy Hill, Chevrolet, Owner Points. $5,200
From here, we will dive into the analysis for this week
NOTE: Pricing for each driver has decreased from each week. This is due to the addition of another driver slot.
Kyle Larson ($8,100): There’s so much to like about Larson this week. He was slow in 1st practice as well as qualifying (good for us) but was 3rd quickest in practice #2, and 4th quickest in final practice. Obviously they’ve figured something out. Larson finished 17th here back in June and is going to be desperately trying to get into the top 16 in points and make the Chase for the Sprint Cup. Larson and crew chief Chris Heroy are going to do whatever it takes to get that all-important win, but even if that win does not come this week, his upside is tremendous and he should be a fixture in your lineup.
Kevin Harvick ($10,600): Coming into this race in June, Harvick had posted 4 straight runner-up finishes at MIS, yet his only win was in 2010. Harvick has finished 8th or better in 6 of his 7 last races and should be in line for another strong finish after finishing 2nd quick in 1st practice, topping the charts in practice #2, and finishing 10th in final practice. He’s the most expensive driver once again this week at a 21.2% of the salary cap making him the typical “GPP” play. There’s plenty of value to fit him this week IMO (Larson, Mears, Biffle to name a few) and he’s averaged a whopping 61.8 FPPG, which is heavily brought down by his -36 two weeks ago. Not to mention, he has a 13.55 average finish in 29 NSCS starts here. He’s one of the top plays on the board and it would be tough for me to fade him if I’m only entering one GPP team this Sunday.
Aric Almirola ($7,400): Almirola has been a solid value pick most of the season but has been slow all weekend (29th, 29th, 31st) and is battling an illness that has even kept him out of the car at one point. Even if Almirola does start the race on Sunday, he’s never finished better than 17th at MIS. Note: per DraftKings rules: If Almirola does NOT start the race, he will receive 0 points, despite a substitute driver being inserted into his #43 car. However, if he starts the race in the car, and is replaced mid-race, all points accumulated for the #43 car WILL count. Regardless, there’s a ton of risk here and limited upside. There’s no reason to take the risk with Almirola this Sunday and I’ll be avoiding him completely.
Tony Stewart ($7,600): Stewart is coming into today’s race with much more on his mind than just racing. Amidst the legal battles he’s facing, Stewart will start 5th on Sunday and has been fast all weekend — posting times good enough for 4th, 9th, and 18th from the first to third practice. It looks as if he’s slowing down, but I’m ignoring that AND his recent struggles here and going down “narrative street” this week. It’d certainly be emotional should he get the win on Sunday. It’s not likely at 75-1 odds, but this is your black flag pick after all. Expect low-ownership and a “make or break” performance on Sunday.
I promise you, I’ve tried to find a great low-priced option. Unfortuately, I didn’t find a single driver worth paying (or barely paying) for. So, let’s not get cute. There’s enough $7.1K+ drivers to make things work. If you MUST have a driver below that price range, go with Justin Allgaier ($5,800) or Sam Hornish Jr. ($5,600) :).
I’ve yet to get this pick right, but that’s okay because I’m gonna keep trying! 🙂 Matt Kenseth ($9,700) has been quite good at this track in his time, with a 10.47 average finish in 30 NSCS starts! He also makes a very nice play as I expect him to lead a lot of laps. It’s a win-win!
DraftKings is offering over $250K in prizes this weekend including the $115K Slingshot ($3 entry) as well as the $100K Victory Lane ($27 entry).
Thank you for reading and good luck this weekend. SHOUTOUT to Tyler Salisbury (writer for DFS Report & mechanic) and the #23 410 Sprint Car (driven by Jimmy Light) for making Knoxville Nationals history for being the first ever team to win the E Main in back-to-back seasons. I know this is far from what they were going for, but it’s history nonetheless. Follow Tyler, on Twitter here. Send them congratulations!!
Enjoy your Sunday!