We have an 11 game slate for DFS MLB action tonight. Looking at the game lines we have lots of high over unders right now which means pitching could be the challenging roster spot to fill. I think we will see high ownership on a few of the high priced options so if you are looking to go contrarian check out my GPP or value options.
Giants @ Pirates(-131) 8
D’Backs(-140) @ Reds 8
Phillies @ Marlins(-150) 8
Braves @ Cubs(-290)
Nationals(-200) @ Rockies 10
Indians @ Yankees(-165) 8.5
Rangers @ Tigers(-105) 9
Twins @ Orioles(-150) 9
Royals @ Red Sox(-108) 9
Rays @ Astros(-107) 7
White Sox @ Angels
Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals (FD $11,300, DK $11,400) – Scherzer has really struggled over the last few weeks and I think that might be in our favor in this match-up. I know he has to pitch in Coors, however Strasburg showed us last night that good things can be done on the mound in Coors. Scherzer is a bulldog and I am sure his last few starts have been eating at him and he will want to get it straightened out. He and the Nationals are a -200 favorite in this game. Scherzer K’d 10 in 6 innings against the Rockies earlier this year but also managed to give up 4 runs. Carlos Gonzalez has 3 hits in his career against Scherzer and all have left the park, so that is a little worry to me. All in all, I think Scherzer is an excellent option as he is priced down in comparison to his ability.
Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs (FD $10,600, DK $11,900) – Arrieta and the Cubs are a huge -290 favorite in this game as Arrieta gets to face the Braves for the second time this season. His first start was spectacular as he went 7 shutout innings, striking out 10 while allowing just 3 hits. The over/under for this game has not been posted yet as the winds at Wrigley are always of concern. We saw last night what the wind can do in a game as both teams went nuts. Arrieta has allowed just 2 earned in 21.1 August innings so far. He is definitely my number 1 option tonight and most likely will be the highest owned as well.
Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays (FD $11,900, DK $12,400) – This game is basically a pick em as Archer gets to face the Astros in Houston tonight. The over/under is sitting at 7 runs and I think there’s a good chance it plays to under 6 tonight. Archer has been knocked around a little in August as he is sporting a .284 average against and an ERA of 5.89 in 18.1 August innings. Archer has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season and is always capable of 10+ strikeouts any time he takes the mound as evidenced by his 194 K’s in 160 innings. The Astros strike out a ton and are not exactly swinging hot bats at this time and I think Archer could go out and surprise. He should be somewhat under owned, mainly due to his price tag.
John Lamb, Cincinnati Reds (FD $4900, DK $5500) – I really like the pitching match-up in this game, even if the over/under is sitting at 8 runs. Lamb looked pretty impressive in his first start, minus the one bad inning that all came after two outs as the top of the order got to him. He finished his start with 6 innings and 5 runs given up to go with 7 strikeouts. I normally am all over the Diamondbacks when they face a lefty, however they just are not swinging it all that well right now which puts Lamb in play for me. I certainly would not go to him in cash games but I think he makes a great GPP option (as does the D’Backs lineup as they should bust out against a lefty soon).
Nick Tropeano, Los Angeles Angels (FD $5600, DK $6000) – As of writing this, there is no line posted for this game as I believe they are waiting for the confirmation that Tropeano will be the starter tonight. Tropeano has made 2 major league starts this year and is 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA spanning 12 innings. He has given up 12 hits, but has K’d 9 and kept the ball in the park in both of his starts. Of those 12 hits, only 3 of those were given up to somebody in the top 5 of the batting order, so take that for what its worth. I think he makes a great GPP option to pair with one of the studs tonight as he should be able to get us a quality start and hopefully a win to go with it.
Collin McHugh, Houston Astros (FD $8600, DK $8700) – McHugh gets to oppose Chris Archer tonight and that alone may lead to low ownership, but that is also why I have him in my GPP plays section as the Win is going to be a little tougher to come by. McHugh has made one start against the Rays this season and went 7 innings and gave up just 4 hits but those hits lead to 3 runs thanks to a home run. He took the loss while striking out 6 in that game. McHugh has a 1.80 ERA in 20 August innings to go along with 21 strikeouts in those innings. Like I said under Archer, I think this game plays well to the under as it is sitting at 7 runs right now.
Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks (FD $6700, DK $9300) – In his last start, Corbin helped win somebody a million dollars (that somebody could have been me had I been there) at the DK Live Final as he threw an impressive 6.2 shutout innings while striking out 8 batters. As I said under Lamb, I really like the pitching match-up in this game and the D’Backs are a -140 road favorite as they take on the Reds. Corbin has made one start against the Reds this season and managed a quality start as he went 6 innings, giving up 3 runs while striking out 5 and getting a no-decision. I think he is priced way too low on FD and almost becomes my favorite pitching option over there, especially if I want to stack the Coors Field game.
Washington Nationals: Jayson Werth (FD $3800, DK $3700), Bryce Harper (FD $5800, DK $6500), Yunel Escobar (FD $4100, DK $4400), Ian Desmond (FD $4200, DK $4600) – The Nationals get to take their hacks against another weak left handed pitcher in Coors Field as the Rockies are running out Flande. If we were to base this purely on BvP then I would include Ryan Zimmerman as he is 4 for 6 with 2 bombs against Flande. He is struggling a little bit right now and maybe that makes him a great contrarian inclusion. I like the way that Werth looked as a lead off last night and Desmond always interests me. I think Rendon should find his way back in the lineup and I would certainly use him in a stack as well.
Chicago Cubs: Dexter Fowler (FD $3100, DK $4500), Kyle Schwarber (FD $4300, DK $4900), Anthony Rizzo (FD $4400, DK $5100), Kris Bryant (FD $3300, DK $4600) – The Cubs really turned it on late last night and I think that carries over to tonight as they get to face the struggling Foltynewicz. I know I have said how I hate that Coghlan hits in the 3 spot when he is in the lineup and ultimately I think its a terrible baseball decision to do so, however tonight I can see including him in a stack, especially with his second base eligibility being added. If you wanted to be contrarian with a somewhat higher owned stack, swap out Schwarber for Montero. I do not recommend that as you will see Schwarber’s name in Blue down below!
Baltimore Orioles: Manny Machado (FD $4100, DK $5200), Gerrardo Parra (FD $3700, DK $4500), Adam Jones (FD $3700, DK $4800), Chris Davis (FD $4900, DK $5600) – Duffey has had 2 extremely opposite starts as he was lit up for 6 runs in 2 innings against the Blue Jays but then bounced back to throw 6 innings of 1 hit baseball against the Indians. I think tonight’s game will be somewhat closer to the Blue Jays game as the Orioles are in a prime spot to do some damage as they turned to the long ball a lot more recently. The problem with the O’s stack is that it is very hard to be contrarian as its really the top 4 that I want a piece of. You can certainly try to include Schoop or whoever is at the DH spot.
Detroit Tigers: Ian Kinsler (FD $4100, DK $4400), Miguel Cabrera (FD $5300, DK $5300), Victor Martinez (FD $3000, DK $3500), J.D. Martinez (FD $3600, DK $4700) – The Tigers just do not want to go away after trading Price and Cespedes as they continue to put up runs and with the return of Miggy, this lineup just became even more dangerous. Tonight they face another left handed starter after smacking around Jon Lester last night. Castellanos paid off for those that rode him last night and he could make a solid stack inclusion, as could Davis, Iglesias and McCann.
Some of the other offenses that I think are worth getting a piece of tonight are the Twins, Royals, Phillies (they are pretty hot it seems), Yankees, Red Sox and a sneaky Giants team against Charlie Morton. If I had to give you my most under the radar stack that has a chance to do something tonight, I think that stack would be the Pittsburgh Pirates as we just never know what we are going to get from Jake Peavy. The main guys in that Pirates stack have never faced him, which makes it kind of a toss up situation. Right now it appears that the only weather to be worried about is happening in Baltimore but that can always change so make sure you pay attention to the forums and forecasts. My last thought is basically just a thank you to the guys here at DFSreport for giving me the chance to provide you guys with some plays and thoughts for the games. Also, a thank you to you out there for taking the time out of your day/research to read what I have to say. I think the DFS industry is a great thing to be a part of and I look forward to being able to provide more and more help to you guys.