It was a wild night of MLB DFS action last night. For a game being played in Coors it seemed that the ownership levels of a lot of the guys playing there was surprisingly low. That should change tonight with the explosion of runs we saw there last night. We have some solid top end pitching talent as well which will make fitting in the bats you want more difficult. I will try to help guide your MLB DFS plays with my favorite pitchers and stacks at various price points on both sites. Lets take a quick look at the game lines and then go over the MLB DFS strategy.
Giants @ Pirates(-165) 7
Braves @ Cubs(-230)
Brewers @ Nationals(-150) 7
D’Backs @ Reds(-125) 8.5
Phillies @ Marlins(-140) 8.5
Mets(-119) @ Rockies 10.5
Cardinals(-135) @ Padres 6.5
Indians @ Yankees(-130) 7.5
Rangers(-119) @ Tigers 9
Twins @ Orioles(-165) 8.5
Royals(-135) @ Red Sox 9
Rays @ Athletics(-130) 7
Blue Jays @ Angels(-105) 8
White Sox @ Mariners(-115) 7.5
Dodgers(-130) @ Astros 7
Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers (FD $12,500, DK $11,700) – Greinke and the Dodgers are a -130 favorite as they take on Kazmir and the Astros tonight. After the Fiers no-hitter last night, I kind of expect there to be some hangover going into tonight and I think both pitchers are in positive spots, with Greinke obviously being in the better spot as he has arguably been the best pitcher in baseball this season. The Astros strike out more than any team in the majors.
Sonny Gray, Oakland Athletics (FD $10,700, DK $11,600) – I love me some Sonny Gray as he gets to take on a Rays team that has actually hit him pretty well in their careers. Gray is a -130 favorite and this game offers an over/under of just 7 runs, which is tied with a handful of others for the second lowest. Gray did shut out the Rays earlier this season as he went 5 innings while striking out 4 en route to a win. Gray is having a great August as he has allowed just 3 earned in 21.2 innings to go along with an average against of just .205.
Carlos Martinez, St Louis Cardinals (FD $10,400, DK $9200) – Martinez is making his second start of 2015 against the Padres and he should be in a spot to duplicate that start as he went 6.2 innings and allowed just 1 run, while striking out 5. I am a bit worried as he seems to have hit some sort of a wall over the last month or so as his average against in July finished at .295 and is sitting at .293 in August. With that said, he and the Cardinals are a -135 favorite and this game has the lowest over/under at 6.5 runs.
Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles (FD $6600, DK $5500) – Tillman and the Orioles are a -165 home favorite against a Twins team that struggles against right handed pitching. Tillman is coming off of a solid start as he went 7 innings and allowed 2 runs to go with 3 strikeouts and should be able to build off of that, to go with his extremely good July (34.1 innings, just 5 runs allowed, 24 K’s and a .205 average against). Tillman’s average against at home is 28 points lower than on the road, so he is in a favorable spot tonight and for his price, you can not beat it. His K upside is somewhat limited, however he can rack up 5+ at any time.
Joe Ross, Washington Nationals (FD $7300, DK $7900) – Joe Ross should be in a positive spot tonight as he takes on a Brewers team that has really under achieved this season. With that said, Ross has really struggled with left handed hitters but has absolutely dominated right handed bats and the Brewers tend to have a lot of right handed hitters in their lineup. Ross and the Nationals are a -150 home favorite here and the game has an over/under of 7 runs. Ross has made one start against the Brewers in 2015 and went 8 innings, striking out 8 while allowing just 2 runs and an average against him of .226.
Danny Salazar, Cleveland Indians (FD $9200, DK $11,400) – Salazar will make his second start against the Yankees tonight and will look to duplicate his first start as he went 7.1 innings, allowing just 1 run on 4 hits while striking out 8. Salazar and the Indians are actually under dogs in this one as the Yankees are a -130 home favorite. Salazar has been ridiculous in August as evidenced by his .159 average against in 20.1 innings. The Yankees offense is a dangerous one, especially when getting to hit in Yankee Stadium but I think Salazar stays hot tonight and shuts down this offense.
Scott Kazmir, Houston Astros (FD $9000, DK $10,300) – Like I said under Greinke, I expect there to be some hangover from last night’s no-hitter from Fiers and Kazmir has the chance to reap the benefits of a Dodgers offense that was just no-hit. The Dodgers will send out some guys that can definitely hit left handed pitching well, however the buzz in the park should be electric from last night and Kazmir should be able to feed off of that. This match-up is a tough one overall, especially being against Greinke, but I think Kazmir makes a great under the radar GPP option.
New York Mets: Juan Lagares (FD $3000, DK $4000), Yoenis Cespedes (FD $4900, DK $5000), Juan Uribe (FD $3400, DK $3400), Michael Cuddyer (FD $3000, DK $4300) – I will go back to the Mets again tonight as they face a left handed starter and should be the highest owned team stack. Cespedes really paid off for some people last night as I think a couple of guys on DK won nearly 200K across a few tournaments with a few different Mets stacks. I really like Flores and d’Arnaud as well and can understand using them over Cuddyer as Cuddyer has really struggled in 2015.
Toronto Blue Jays: Troy Tulowitzki (FD $3800, DK $3600), Josh Donaldson (FD $5700, DK $4600), Jose Bautista (FD $4800, DK $4300), Edwin Encarnacion (FD $4800, DK $4400) – Heaney has pitched really well for the Angels this season, so this match-up is not without some concerns. However, it is the Blue Jays we are talking about and they absolutely destroy left handed pitching. This lineup is so dangerous that it is so tough to not get some exposure to them. I think anybody in the top 6 make solid options for the stack and I think you could argue adding Pillar in place of Tulo with the way that Tulo has been swinging the bat.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Ender Inciarte (FD $2600, DK $3700), A.J. Pollock (FD $4400, DK $5300), Paul Goldschmidt (FD $4400, DK $5500), David Peralta (FD $3500, DK $3900) – I am going to continue to ride the D’Backs until they completely tee off on a pitcher. Things started really well for them last night and the D’Backs stack did some respectable thing and I think they will do something tonight. Goldschmidt really let everybody down last night and I think that lowers his ownership % slightly. I would pay attention to the lineup and think anybody in the top 6 is in play, especially Lamb.
Chicago Cubs: Kyle Schwarber (FD $4400, DK $5100), Chris Coghlan (FD $3300, DK $3600), Anthony Rizzo (FD $4400, DK $5400) – If any of you are playing the all day slates, then I would suggest looking the Cubs way for the stack and I think you can stack any of the top 6 or 7 in this lineup today. For my money, I want the 3 left handed bats in order as they do some crazy damage. The Cubs have been on a tear over their last 14 games and I expect them to put up plenty of runs in this one as Perez really struggles against left handed hitters.
Looks like there is a lot of upper tier type pitching for Saturday and that always makes things interesting as people can go plenty of different ways with their stacks and combinations. Stacks have really been prevalent over the last handful of days as teams have been on fire. I haven’t even mentioned baseballs hottest team as the Red Sox have been absolutely on a tear over the last 10 days and they could certainly continue that against a volatile Yordano Ventura. I have learned over the last few days to be very patient and to keep trusting your research as the DFS world is very similar to my poker days as there are extreme ups and downs throughout a session/season and its how you handle those that puts you in a position in the future. Make sure you follow me on twitter as I generally tweet out random updates to my research in which I may find a hidden gem in a lineup or a stat that starts to stand out more and more to me. Best of luck!