Welcome back for another week of DFS NASCAR and welcome to one of NASCAR’s fastest tracks. This article will once again focus on the rules of fantasy NASCAR on DraftKings and breakdown what’s important to pay attention to. Following that, we will dive into strategy for this week. We have once again tag teamed this article with Tyler Salisbury and Tyler Badger to give you a couple different perspectives on who can succeed tonight.
ATTENTION: There has been TWO rule changes, effective 8/2: “Pass Differential” will no longer be scored and has been removed from the system. Also, the number of drivers you are required to roster has gone from 5 to 6.
What’s important to know: You will select 6 drivers, staying within a $50,000 salary cap.
Final Position: This is the easy one. The higher your driver finishes, the more points you receive. A 1st place finish receives 46 PTS, while 43rd will receive 1 PT.
Fastest Laps: Each time your driver runs the fastest lap, you will receive +0.5 PTS. Your driver, while unlikely, will have the potential to earn a maximum of (0.5) X (# of laps in the race) PTS.
Laps Led: For each lap your driver leads, you will receive +0.25 PTS. It’s as simple as that.
Place Differential: Place differential will be determined by the difference from where your driver starts, to where he/she finishes. So, if your select driver starts 1st, he/she cannot have a positive place differential. (Example: if your driver qualifies 20th and finishes 10th, he/she will have receive +10 PTS for a positive 10 in the place differential category). Note: If your selected driver has to go to the back at the start of the race for any reason (backup car, engine change) he/she will still maintain the position he/she qualified, for fantasy purposes.
AVERAGE PLACE DIFFERENTIAL
From here, we will dive into the analysis for this week
NOTE: Pricing for each driver has decreased from each week. This is due to the addition of another driver slot.
KYLE BUSCH ($10,300): As we all know KB has been incredibly strong since returning from his leg injury, and I don’t look for him to slow down at all again this weekend. He will roll of 2nd in the race on Saturday night after a strong qualifying effort; KB was also 3rd and 1st quick in the 2 practice sessions respectively. Over the last 5 raves KB has had an average finish of 13.8; some people may argue that that is not great by any means as there are a number of different drivers who have had much better success, but I will prove my point here in just a second. Over the last 6 races of this year KB has posted an incredible average finish of 6.17, this would be a much higher number if not for running out of gas at Pocono and an 11th place finish at Michigan. In this 6 race stretch he has 4 Top 5 finishes, including 3 wins. In the last 5 races at Bristol, KB has spent 51.6% of his time in the Top 15 and led 137 laps. While all of the JGR cars have been incredibly strong over the last few races, I think KB jumps out to an early lead and will stay there for a while. There are a lot of points to be had for laps led this week so grab them where you can, you will need them to win.
RICKY STENHOUSE JR ($6,500): I honestly could have gone a number of different ways with this pick, but decided to stick Ricky in at yellow for a few different reasons. While he tends to struggle greatly at almost every other track on the schedule, this track is one of the few Stenhouse has seen great success at. This I believe can be attributed to his numerous years of short track experience in his career, and can be backed up by stats from previous races. In the last 5 races Stenhouse has had an average finish of 9.2, with an average place differential of 15.2. His place differential will be limited this week by a strong qualifying run as he starts 8th on Saturday night, but this does not worry me too much. Over the last 5 Stenhouse has recorded 2 Top 5’s, 3 Top 10’s, and has not finished outside of the Top 20; all while running in the Top 15 49.3% of the time. I only have him listed as a yellow flag due to his limited upside when it comes to place differential, but at his price you can fit him very nicely and load your line ups.
DAVID RAGAN ($7,200): There is a slim and I mean SLIM possibility that this fade will burn me and others this week, but I do not foresee that happening. Ragan has been performing quietly well over the last 6 races, recording an average finish of 19.67. This is one track that he has never had success at and why I will fade him like no other this weekend. In the last 5 races here, Ragan has only finished inside the Top 20 one time with an average finish of 25.6. Coupled with those stats, he has an average place differential of -4.4 and only ran inside the Top 15 5.6% of the time. Do yourself a favor and fade Ragan and find someone else to stick in your line ups.
TONY STEWART ($7,800): It seems like Tony has been in this section almost every week since it was implemented, but he is placed here for good reason. Tony rolls off 40th this week which leaves room at a chance for huge positive place differential points if he can keep his nose clean all race long. In the last 3 races here Tony has had an average finish of 13.7; including 2 Top 10’s and 1 Top 5, all while spending 40% of the time in the Top 15. Tony is the Black Flag pick this week due to the fact that he will start buried deep in the field, and with the way cars get lapped at Bristol he will have to be on the move. Tony is an incredibly smart racer, I fully expect him to keep his nose clean and pick up a huge place differential this weekend. Fit him in where you can.
JUSTIN ALLGAIER ($6,000): To be completely honest this is the first time I have felt even remotely confident in a value pick all year. While it has been a relatively small sample size Allgaier has been quite consistent in his 3 races here; he has an average finish of 14.7 with an average place differential of 6.6. In those 3 races he has recorded 1 Top 10, has never finished outside the Top 20, and has spent 34% of the time in the Top 15. For being a low budget team Allgaier is incredibly consistent at Bristol and is poised for another strong finish this weekend. If you are trying to absolutely load your line ups with some studs, Allgaier may be a great option to pair with Stenhouse.
KYLE BUSCH ($10,300): I was torn between two drivers as my pick to win this weekend, so I am going to go with the one I have the most confidence in, and that is once again KB. The reasons are obvious as I highlighted his recent dominance above; but with the speed he had in both practices and qualifying, coupled with all the swagger and confidence the JGR boys have had lately it would be no surprise to see KB in victory lane once again. As a side not, I have the most confidence in the JGR cars this weekend and can be stacked a few different ways.
Enjoy the races tonight!
-Tyler B. & Tyler S.