We have a full slate of MLB games on tap for our DFS action tonight. Both FanDuel and DraftKings have their biggest GPP prize pools of the week along with some satellites to bigger tourneys happening this Friday. We don’t have to many weather concerns right now but make sure you have checked the latest forecast before letting your lineups lock. Take a look at the game lines and then we will get into my favorite pitchers and stacks to target tonight.
Mets(-195) @ Phillies 8
Padres @ Nationals(-160) 7
Pirates(-150) @ Marlins 8
Rockies(-104) @ Braves 8
Dodgers(-152) @ Reds 8.5
Cardinals(-115) @ D’Backs 8
Cubs(-135) @ Giants 6.5
Astros(-120) @ Yankees 7.5
Angels(-115) @ Tigers 8.5
Twins @ Rays(-145) 7.5
Blue Jays(-135) @ Rangers 9.5
Red Sox @ White Sox(-120) 8.5
Orioles @ Royals(-140) 8
Athletics @ Mariners(-125) 7.5
Brewers @ Indians(-140) 8
Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs (FD $11,200, DK $12,500) –
Arrieta takes on a Giants team that he has made one start against in 2015 and completely dominated them in 7.2 innings of work. In that game he struck out 6 while allowing no run on just 4 hits en route to the Win. With as dominant as Arrieta has been all season long, he has been even better on the road as his strike out numbers jump to over 1 an inning when pitching away from Wrigley and his ERA drops down to 2.07 as compared to 2.56 at home.
Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals (FD $10,000, DK $10,000) –
Strasburg has been nasty since his return from the DL and has racked up 25 strikeouts in just 20 innings so far in August. In those 20 innings he has allowed just 12 hits and 3 earned runs while going 2-1. Tonight he gets to face a Padres team that he faced earlier this season and struck out 7 against in just 5 innings. He ended up giving up 3 runs on 5 hits in that contest so it was nothing spectacular, however he gets to face them at home this time and Strasburg has always had some extreme home/road splits that really favor pitching in Washington.
Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets (FD $10,800, DK $10,900) –
We need to have short memories when it comes to DFS as deGrom really destroyed a lot of nights last night with his terrible performance against the Phillies and tonight Syndergaard gets to take his shot at the Phillies offense. Syndergaard generally pitches a lot better at home which gives me some concern tonight in the small park that is Citizens Bank. Syndergaard has faced the Phillies once so far this season and he threw 7.1 shutout innings to go with 6 strikeouts. I am tempted to recommend Syndergaard as a GPP option only as the Phillies have been a top 3 team since the all-star break.
Charlie Morton, Pittsburgh Pirates (FD $7100, DK $7100) –
Morton recently threw an 8K gem against the Giants and he should be able to feed off of his last start as he takes on the Marlins tonight. Morton has struggled with left handed hitters this season and that has me a little leery, however his performances so far in August have me thinking he is a decently safe option tonight. He has thrown 25 innings in August, allowing just 7 earned runs while striking out 30. I want to ride that spike in strikeouts for as long as it’ll last and that K upside make him a bargain tonight.
Jesse Chavez, Oakland Athletics (FD $7600, DK $7500) –
Chavez has turned it around lately and is looking pretty sharp and I think he makes an excellent option tonight against a Mariners offense that is hit or miss. Chavez has made a couple of starts against them in 2015 and has tossed 13.2 innings, allowing 8 runs on 14 hits (2 home runs) and striking out 11 and taking 2 losses. I could have gone with Tomlin in this spot, however I have this weird crush on Chavez (as most of you saw earlier in the season) and I think he is in a capable spot to pay off his salary tonight rather easily as he offers us double digit K upside while not costing us like a guy that could K 10.
Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros (FD $10,900, DK $11,000) –
I love Keuchel tonight as he faces a team that generally destroys left handed pitching, however he threw a complete game shutout against them earlier this season in a game in which he struck out 12. That start was at home while tonight’s will be in Yankee stadium so that may change the outcome slightly, however the Yankee bats are far from locked in and Teixeira continues to miss some time. A-Rod has been in a funk, Ellsbury, Gardner and McCann can be shut down by left handed pitching and the bottom of the lineup is generally very left hand heavy as well. That leaves just one guy to be afraid of in my eyes and that guy is Chris Young as he has 6 hits in 17 at bats against Keuchel in his career.
Jaime Garcia, St Louis Cardinals (FD $8800, DK $9500) –
Garcia has been spectacular so far in 2015 and he gets a tough match-up tonight as he faces a D’Backs team that generally destroys left handed pitching. Garcia has made one start against the D’Backs in 2015 and was just so-so in that start. He lasted just 6 innings, giving up 8 hits and 3 earned runs while striking out 5. He did manage to come away with the win in that start. This start gives me some worries as it is in Arizona tonight and offenses generally feast here. The one nice thing about Garcia is that he has been a reverse splits pitcher and has held right handed hitters to an average of .188 in 2015.
Toronto Blue Jays: Troy Tulowitzki (FD $3800, DK $4600), Josh Donaldson (FD $6200, DK $6400), Jose Bautista (FD $5200, DK $5400), Edwin Encarnacion (FD $5100, DK $4600) –
The Jays have not hit Holland all that well in their careers however whenever they take on a left handed pitcher they will be my top option as this lineup is just a murderers row, especially against left handers. I think I am comfortable targeting 1-6 tonight as I think 7-9 should be Pillar, Pennington and Revere and they just do not intrigue me against Holland.
New York Mets: Curtis Granderson (FD $3300, DK $4500), Daniel Murphy (FD $4100, DK $4000), Yoenis Cespedes (FD $4000, DK $5100), David Wright (FD $3500, DK $4300) –
The Mets have smacked around Williams so far this year as they have 20 base runners in just 12 innings against him and they have 2 home runs in those 12 innings. Williams has given up 20 home runs in 20 starts so far this season and shockingly 18 of those 20 have been to right handed hitting. He has allowed lefties to hit .315 and righties to hit .336 against him in 2015 and I hope the Mets did not use up all of their fire power last night. I look for the Home Run barrage to continue tonight. Stack the entire Mets lineup, any way you like and I almost want to call a Syndergaard jack tonight LOL.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Starling Marte (FD $4000, DK $5000), Andrew McCutchen (FD $4900, DK $4900), Jung-Ho Kang (FD $3700, DK $4000), Aramis Ramirez (FD $2800, DK $3400) –
Hand threw a gem against the Pirates earlier this season, but I do not expect that to happen tonight as he has been hit pretty well by right handed bats and the Pirates should have a right hand heavy lineup tonight as they face Hand. Should the Pirates decide to stick with the hot hitting Polanco at leadoff, I would include him in a stack as it could be very contrarian and pay off. I am interested to see their lineup as they probably will try to get Harrison, Morse and even Sean Rodriguez in the lineup tonight. Jordy Mercer recently returned from the DL and has always hit lefties well.
Arizona Diamondbacks: A.J. Pollock (FD $4900, DK $5800), Paul Goldschmidt (FD $4700, DK $5500), Wellington Castillo (FD $3500, DK $3600), David Peralta (FD $3500, DK $3300) –
I really am torn in this match-up as Garcia has been lights out all season, however the D’Backs smash left handed pitching and I think both sides make great GPP options tonight as the D’Backs should go lesser owned than you would expect against a lefty. I would be willing to slide Tomas in over Peralta should he not be in the lineup and I like Hill as an option tonight as well.
Hopefully you guys were able to take advantage of that Mets explosion to go along with some of those late inning Reds runs as the night started out really rough for a lot of us and finished alright overall. That leads me to deGrom and basically any ace who is pitching against a team that is viewed as just not very good. On any given night, a pitcher can make a few mistakes and batters tend to not miss those mistakes in the majors. If you are making numerous lineups, it might make sense to throw a contrarian stack in to go up against a couple of the top pitchers of the slate as both deGrom and Iwakuma ended up giving it up pretty quickly. I don’t want to get started on Iwakuma and what he possibly cost me in some big GPPs. As I said to some of the guys I chat with in a Hangout group, you have to always trust your research and go with the plays that you feel are in the best spots. Sometimes those plays don’t work out but you have to trust the numbers and over the long run you will have more positive nights than negative ones.