So, clearly many were fooled by Plainfield Country Club at the Barclays last week (me especially). The course ended up playing much harder than expected and let’s face it, all the information we had was really off of the 3 rounds played there in 2011. Aside from the miserable showing in golf, I had to battle a very large insect that found it’s way into my house on Saturday. I’m just going to chalk up last week as a big L and move on…
The good news this week is that the Deutsche Bank Championship is going to be played at TPC Boston. This is the same course that it has been played at for the past 12 years so we won’t be falling victim to the small sample size like last week. TPC Boston is a par 71 course that measures nearly 7,250 yards. This course is somewhat thought of as a “bomber’s paradise” but make no mistake about it, you’re going to need to putt well to contend this week. This week should be the low-scoring affair that we hoped for at the Barclays. Reminder this week roster lock is not until early Friday morning. The Deutsche Bank Championship will run from Friday-Monday and concluding on Labor Day.
Par 3 Scoring
Par 5 Scoring
As always, SG:T2G, SG:Putting, and Course History will all be sprinkled in to help us figure out which golfers to target from week to week.
Odds To Win: 15-2
Predicted Ownership: 17.2%
The only reason I don’t see Mcllroy’s ownership eclipsing the 20% mark is because some owners may still be worried about the ankle. I am not one of those owners. If Rory’s ankle was bothering him at the PGA Championship, he showed no signs of it on his way to a T17 finish. After taking last week off, I would be very surprised if the Irishman was not 100% ready for this week. Aside from bombing off the tee, Rory can obviously string together birdies in bunches especially at a course like TPC Boston. He should be started with confidence in all formats.
Odds To Win: 15-1
Predicted Ownership: 12.5%
Stenson is one of my favorite plays this week. He is a former winner here in 2013 and has a strong course history. He ranks 2nd on Tour in SG:T2G, he is top 25 in SG:Putting, and is top 30 in Birdie Average. What I really like about Stenson this week is his price positioning. Because of guys like Justin Rose, Bubba Watson, and Brooks Koepka being cheaper than Stenson, I think that will keep his ownership level down because if people are going to pay up they will most likely gravitate towards the Rory, DJ, Day, Spieth. Stenson is coming off a solo 2nd last week at the Barclays and should be firing on all cylinders come Friday.
Odds To Win: 30-1
Predicted Ownership: Chalk
Even after the piss poor showing at the Barclays last week, I am still expecting Koepka to be a popular play this week and for good reason. Aside from killing the ball off the tee, Brooks ranks top 25 in SG:T2G, top 12 in SG:Putting, 17th in Birdie Average, and top 5 in both Scoring Average and Par 5 Scoring. This course sets up very well for Brooks and he is a great bet to bounce back in a big way in Boston.
Odds To Win: 50-1
Predicted Ownership: 8.4%
I can definitely get behind Phil as a strong GPP play. While his recent form is nothing to drool about, this course really suits his game and he always seems to show up when it matters most. Phil ranks in the top 25 in Driving Distance and is top 10 in both Birdie Average and Par 5 Scoring. If his putter gets hot, watch out!!!
Odds To Win: 60-1
Predicted Ownership: 7.6%
Even though Henley made the cut last week, it was a very ugly showing. For this reason among others, I do think his ownership will be under 10% which I believe is a huge win. Henley has enough length off the tee where he can keep up with the bombers as he ranks in the top 40 in Driving Distance. Henley is also ranked 5th in SG:Putting and I believe that putting is underrated this week and should help set Henley apart. He also had a T2 here last year so the course history is there as well.
Odds To Win: 60-1
Predicted Ownership: 13.1%
Since Lee’s Win at the Greenbrier in July, he has posted 3 top 6 finishes in his last 6 starts and is coming off a T30 at the Barclays last week. His ability to putt well always gives him a chance to make birdies and contend on any course. He is ranked 26th in SG:Putting, 23rd in Birdie Average, and 4th in Par 3 Scoring. Do not be surprised to see Lee near the top of the leaderboard on Labor Day.
Odds To Win: 125-1
Predicted Ownership: Chalk
I feel like this part is going to be repetitive but c’mon. $6800 for a guy this good is just too juicy to pass up on. Wilcox is ranked in the top 25 in both SG:T2G and Birdie Average and is 6th in Par 3 Scoring. He should anchor every cash game lineup and I would be okay with peppering him in some GPP lineups as well. He’s the GOAT!
Odds To Win: 8,000,000-1
Predicted Ownership: 0.7%
Any time I can write up Mr. Berger, I consider it a good week regardless of outcome. But seriously, Berger’s length off the tee will help give him an advantage as he ranks in the top 20 in both Driving Distance and Par 5 Scoring. While Berger has not played a weekend in months, with the top 70/100 making the cut this week, he is the exact type of risk/reward player that could pay off big at a course like this.
Guys I’m Fading: Zach Johnson, Louis Oosthuizen, Matt Kuchar, Jimmy Walker
My Winner: Rory Mcllroy… no reverse jinx this week, it’s the playoffs now and the best will continue to rise above the rest. I expect no less from the world’s number one golfer this week. RORY RORY RORY!!!!
Best of luck to all PGA Grinders in Boston!!!
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