To help predict ownership percentages in big field GPPs we have developed a tool that measures a players mentions on Twitter from a list of well respected and highly followed individuals in the fantasy sports community. Essentially these tweeters are market movers who can cause a players ownership levels to move with only one tweet. Knowing this and the fact that DFS players like to follow the wisdom of the crowd we have spent time perfecting our system to take out the noise and cut right down to what players are creating the most social buzz. This article will help show you who will be a popular play and who is flying under the radar although they have similar projections to the highly discussed player. This is our Thursday edition of this article. Please check back on Sunday morning for a Sunday update.
DFS is all about exploiting market inefficiencies. Those inefficiencies are being ironed out by the tout explosion; with hundreds, if not thousands of touts and experts, are there truly any sleepers anymore?
By measuring the Twitter output of touts, news sites, and DFS players, we can attempt to bring back the sleeper. We have a measurable picture of what chalk plays are being talked about the most, and the least.
Note: Chalk plays are defined by taking a player’s projected points and dividing by their salary on Fanduel.
If a chalk play is being talked about a lot, then we can assume it is a “safe” cash game player to roster, because lots of people are talking about him and influencing other people to roster him.
If a chalk play isn’t being talked about a lot, but still has a chalk projection, then we can quantify that the lack of attention will make the player under-owned compared to their projection.
I would expect Carson Palmer, Tom Brady, Ben Roethisberger, Cam Newton and Russell Wilson to be the highest owned quarterbacks this week. Andrew Luck has a lot of mentions due to his poor performance on Monday night and that discussion carrying into Tuesday.
A sneaky under the radar play could be Blake Bortles. Even if the Jags get blown out he should have plenty of mop up time like Tyrod Taylor had last week. Teddy Bridgewater is another one at home but his upside seems to be capped unless he can run a touchdown in. Ryan Mallett deserves a closer look as well.
A lot of the Demarco Murray mentions can be attributed to how awful him and the Eagles have been playing the first two games. I would’t read a ton into him being highly owned this week.
I think we will see Marshawn Lynch as the highest owned running back this week. This is something I do not agree with. I would rather pay up for Adrian or Leveon Bell with my money. The Seahawks – Bears game is the typical game where Russell Wilson likes to run all over. Also if the Seahawks are up big Lynch is generally the first person who stops playing. This is a clear fade for me right now but we will have a much better idea after we see some Thursday Ownership percentages.
Dion Lewis has a lot of noise right now. Predicting what Belichick is going to do week in and week out with his running backs is one of the hardest things about DFS. I would have limited exposure to Lewis but definitely wouldn’t go crazy.
Jamaal Charles could definitely be flying under the radar for Monday nights action. He has been somewhat quiet to start the year but this Packers D can definitely be ran on and they will need to score if they want to stay in this game.
Emmanuel Sanders, Antonio Brown and Larry Fitzgerald have the most mentions right now. All should be relatively highly owned. Obviously tonight we will see tons of Odell Beckham exposure.
Another Chiefs player that is really flying under the radar is Jeremy Maclin. I definitely expect the Chiefs to score some points on Monday night and I think his ownership could be way lower then it should be. For more info on the Chiefs offense read our preseason preview by Geoff. They were money in Week 1.
Jimmy Graham mentions can be attributed to him being frustrated in his new Seahawks offense. The targets just do not seem to be there. It is possible they look to get him the ball early so that might be a narrative street play if nothing else. Greg Olsen has the potential to have a bounce back week at low ownership and he is someone that is worth taking a closer look at if you are looking for some distinction or like Cam this week.