To help predict ownership percentages in big field GPPs we have developed a tool that measures a players mentions on Twitter from a list of well respected and highly followed individuals in the fantasy sports community. Essentially these tweeters are market movers who can cause a players ownership levels to move with only one tweet. Knowing this and the fact that DFS players like to follow the wisdom of the crowd we have spent time perfecting our system to take out the noise and cut right down to what players are creating the most social buzz. This article will help show you who will be a popular play and who is flying under the radar although they have similar projections to the highly discussed player. We now have a full weeks worth of data and mentions to base our predictions off of.
DFS is all about exploiting market inefficiencies. Those inefficiencies are being ironed out by the tout explosion; with hundreds, if not thousands of touts and experts, are there truly any sleepers anymore?
By measuring the Twitter output of touts, news sites, and DFS players, we can attempt to bring back the sleeper. We have a measurable picture of what chalk plays are being talked about the most, and the least.
I mentioned 5 quarterbacks in my Thursday article Carson Palmer, Tom Brady, Ben Roethisberger, Cam Newton and Russell Wilson and predicted they would be the highest owned QBs. This still seems accurate but Nick Foles has gained a lot of momentum as well. I expect him to be used quite a bit stacked with Jared Cook.
My sneaky play was Blake Bortles but he has definitely picked up steam over the weekend and seems like he will have some people on him. Philip Rivers has no mentions this week. It is tough for a west coast team to travel and play the early games. We did see their spread line move in their favor from Friday to Saturday and that reverse line movement has me taking a closer look at Rivers. The problem is I am not sure who to stack him with. Keenan Allen may draw shadow coverage from Xavier Rhodes. If you are feeling like taking a long shot Malcom Floyd paired with Rivers will be an extremely low owned stack.
A lot of the Demarco Murray mentions can be attributed to how awful him and the Eagles have been playing the first two games. I would’t read a ton into him being highly owned this week.
We might have a case study written about Marshawn Lynch’s 2015 NFL week 3. This is one of the weirdest weeks for a player I can remember. I expected him to be highly owned and was planning on fading him until the injury report came out on Friday and he was questionable. I just cannot risk him on a non late swap site. I was planning on avoiding him before this so am a little disappointed that his ownership will take a hit.
Dion Lewis has a lot of noise right now. A lot of people are thinking this is going to be a Blount game. I think I am avoiding this situation entirely.
Adrian Peterson, Leveon Bell and Jamaal Charles could definitely be the top owned running backs in that order. I have exposure to all three. Because of this I think some of the mid priced running backs are being overlooked. Latavius Murray is a guy I am a fan of. I have heard lots of people also talk up Melvin Gordon. If Lorenzo T. misses todays game then I think Justin Forsett should get the ball as many times as he can handle. All three are worthy of a closer look at low ownership with people either paying top dollar or going down to the bar minimum with Devonta Freeman or whichever GTD ends up being out.
Emmanuel Sanders is blowing up on mentions right now. Peyton has been targeting him like crazy. He should be very highly owned. If you want to pivot off of him look to pay up to DT. That way if DT ends up having the big game you gain a lot on everyone who went with Emmanuel instead. Brandon Marshall, Edelman, Antonio Brown and Larry Fitzgerald are my picks for the next highest owned receivers. If you multi enter GPPs I think you definitely have to have some limited exposure to them.
Donte Moncrief has quite a bit of noise right now. With my money I am paying up to Hilton instead.
I think all of the Monday night receivers are being talked about less then they should be. James Jones has the best matchup on paper so I expect him to be the highest owned. I think Randall Cobb and Jeremy Maclin are also very much in play. That game might be the highest scoring for week 3 so I think it is necessary to get some exposure to guys going tomorrow.
Jimmy Graham and Gronk lead the way for tight ends with mentions. The way it should be. Graham has some narrative street with being frustrated in this offense. Its possible they look to get him involved early. Not sure if that is going to happen or not.
I like getting exposure to Kelce, Rudolph and Greg Olsen. All three are being talked about less then they should and all three could get into the end zone this weekend. I expect Coby Fleener and Jared Cook to be higher owned then all three of them.