To help predict ownership percentages in big field GPPs we have developed a tool that measures a players mentions on Twitter from a list of well respected and highly followed individuals in the fantasy sports community. Essentially these tweeters are market movers who can cause a players ownership levels to move with only one tweet. Knowing this and the fact that DFS players like to follow the wisdom of the crowd we have spent time perfecting our system to take out the noise and cut right down to what players are creating the most social buzz. This article will help show you who will be a popular play and who is flying under the radar although they have similar projections to the highly discussed player. This is our Thursday edition of this article. Please check back on Sunday morning for a Sunday update.
DFS is all about exploiting market inefficiencies. Those inefficiencies are being ironed out by the tout explosion; with hundreds, if not thousands of touts and experts, are there truly any sleepers anymore?
By measuring the Twitter output of touts, news sites, and DFS players, we can attempt to bring back the sleeper. We have a measurable picture of what chalk plays are being talked about the most, and the least.
Michael Vick actually has the most QB mentions for the week. I expect him to be higher owned then he should since this is a Thursday game but I do not think the value is there. I am really excited about his prospects for next week with the return of Martavis Bryant. So I am hoping he doesn’t perform tonight in primetime and his ownership will be low next week when we can capitalize on his deep balls to Bryant. We will see how it develops but I would not be rostering Vick in my lineups tonight.
The top 2 Quarterbacks Luck and Rodgers also have the most buzz this week. They have good matchups and should be highly owned in all contests. I would probably lean Rodgers on the road but will have exposure to both in GPPs. Peyton Manning should be highly underowned and makes for an interesting contrarian stack. Depending on the status of Xavier Rhodes I would have stacks with both Sanders and DT. If Xavier goes I would move most of my DT shares to Sanders.
I think Russell Wilson will be lower owned then he should be. One of these weeks he is going to get his legs going and win people a bunch of money.
Andy Dalton, Tyrod Taylor, Cam Newton and Derek Carr round out the next level of QBs. Andy Dalton has the most buzz and should be the highest owned of this group coming off of his week 3 performance. I would like to see his Thursday Ownership levels before making a definitive call on whether or not I will be fading him. I am fine not having any exposure to him going on Thursday however. I like Cam and Tyrod the best in this group but Armando makes a great case for having exposure to Derek Carr as well.
Not a lot of clarity at Running Back right now. Jeremy Hill mentions can be attributed to his awful start to the season. I do not think we see his ownership that high. Justin Forsett’s buzz is due to him playing on Thursday. We are going to have to wait to see some ownership levels from the Thursday contests before making an accurate read on which way to lean at the running back position this weekend.
I would expect Devonta Freeman and Joseph Randle to be the highest owned running backs if Tevin Coleman sits again. If that appears to be the case I will most likely grit my teeth and fade Freeman in what I consider to be a tough matchup against the Houston front 7. Randle is still in a RBBC so if his ownership levels are higher then they should be that is an easy fade as well.
I like having exposure to Latavius Murray, Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles and Eddie Lacy if I am building rosters for Thursday roster lock. I am also always a fanboy of Shane Vereen and think game flow dictates that he will be very involved this weekend. He is always a huge risk to roster but if the Giants get down early he can easily catch 6-8 balls in this offense.
I would predict the 4 highest owned Wide Receivers to be Emmanuel Sanders, Julio Jones, Randall Cobb and Amari Cooper. I think you have to have some exposure to all of them. Again if Xavier Rhodes is able to play he will match up on DT which means Emmanuel should get an even bigger boost in targets. If Xavier sits then I like DT as a sneaky pivot off of Sanders.
A.J. Green has a surprisingly low amount of buzz coming off of his monster week. I still expect his ownership levels to increase quite a bit. He is definitely one I am curious to see his ownership on Thursday lock contests.
Jeremy Maclin, Larry Fitzgerald and Deandre Hopkins are all guys I really like this weekend. The targets are there for all three and if they are going to be lower owned then they should be then they are ones to definitely target across your lineups.
A week without Gronk means that the Tight end position will be the most important in determining GPP success this weekend. Unfortunately we do not have a ton of clarity right now on which way the crowd is leaning. Jimmy Graham is getting the most buzz and after scoring last weekend I expect his ownership to be fairly high. I also anticipate Greg Olsen to have quite a few daily gamers backing him. Outside of that its really murky at the tight end position right now.
People have mentioned Charles Clay so it will be interesting to see where his ownership comes in at tonight. Other then that I am taking a wait and see approach before making any definitive decisions on this position.