To help predict ownership percentages in big field GPPs we have developed a tool that measures a players mentions on Twitter from a list of well respected and highly followed individuals in the fantasy sports community. Essentially these tweeters are market movers who can cause a players ownership levels to move with only one tweet. Knowing this and the fact that DFS players like to follow the wisdom of the crowd we have spent time perfecting our system to take out the noise and cut right down to what players are creating the most social buzz. This article will help show you who will be a popular play and who is flying under the radar although they have similar projections to the highly discussed player. This is our Thursday edition of this article. Please check back on Sunday morning for a Sunday update.
DFS is all about exploiting market inefficiencies. Those inefficiencies are being ironed out by the tout explosion; with hundreds, if not thousands of touts and experts, are there truly any sleepers anymore?
By measuring the Twitter output of touts, news sites, and DFS players, we can attempt to bring back the sleeper. We have a measurable picture of what chalk plays are being talked about the most, and the least.
Carson Palmer and Tom Brady lead the social twitter mentions at QuarterBack this week. It is safe to say Tom Brady will be the highest owned QB across GPPs this weekend. Carson Palmer may actually go a bit underowned this week as a road favorite going against Detroit. I think his ownership will be in the middle of the pack for QuarterBacks. A lot of people have been discussing Kirk Cousins this week. I think we see his ownership quite low. His upside is so limited.
Surprisingly Philip Rivers has no social buzz so far. I still think he will be one of the highest owned quarterbacks but for some reason the discussion on him just has not taken place yet this week.
I do think Alex Smith is definitely in play this week at home against the Bears. He will most likely be the 8-10th highest owned QB this week. I like having some exposure to him if that is the case.
A couple QBs that are worth a closer look as GPP flyers are Jameis Winston and Matthew Stafford.
Outside of Anthony “Boobie” Dixon we do not have a lot of clarity at the Running Back position this week. A lot of his buzz can be attributed to injury discussion as well. Even with Tevin Coleman playing it looks like Devonta Freeman will be the highest owned running back by a wide margin. This is an easy fade for me. I have 100s of lineups going this morning and zero with Freeman in it. He has been incredibly touchdown dependent and with Coleman back at that ownership level I am rolling the dice with no exposure to him. Dion Lewis should also be looking at a high ownership level and I will have limited exposure to him as well.
Todd Gurley will be highly owned especially on the sites that he is still incredibly cheap. I just can’t get away from him this week. This is one where I will be siding with the crowd. I just hope a lot of people do not pivot off of Freeman or Lewis to him.
This seems to be a week to side with some of the chalk at Running Back. That is usually how this position is though because it is clear who is going to get volume and who isn’t.
Julio Jones carries the most social buzz at wide receiver this week. I think a lot of the discussion centers around his injury situation which does not sound that great. Still, he is a guy that has played through injuries quite well throughout his career. I think there are other options that are in a better spot then him today so I am fine fading him based off of his injury concern.
Julian Edelman, Keenan Allen and Jeremy Maclin all have tons of targets coming into week 5. There is no reason to think that will change so I expect all of their ownerships to be quite high across the industry.
I think Mike Evans is in line for a big week and should see a low ownership percentage. He is one of my favorite GPP flyers stacked with Jameis Winston.
It is Gronk and Owen Daniels leading the charge for social buzz at the tight end position. Jimmy Graham also has a ton of mentions but I do not see that affecting his ownership a bunch. Antonio Gates returning from suspension also is looking like he will be highly owned.
I like two tight ends that should be lesser owned and that is Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz. I think they are worth a second look in a few of your GPP contests this morning.