To help predict ownership percentages in big field GPPs we have developed a tool that measures a players mentions on Twitter from a list of well respected and highly followed individuals in the fantasy sports community. Essentially these tweeters are market movers who can cause a players ownership levels to move with only one tweet. Knowing this and the fact that DFS players like to follow the wisdom of the crowd we have spent time perfecting our system to help take out the noise and cut right down to what players are creating the most social buzz. This article will help show you who will be a popular play and who is flying under the radar although they have similar projections to the highly discussed player.
DFS is all about exploiting market inefficiencies. Those inefficiencies are being ironed out by the tout explosion; with hundreds, if not thousands of touts and experts, are there truly any sleepers anymore?
By measuring the Twitter output of touts, news sites, and DFS players, we can attempt to bring back the sleeper. We have a measurable picture of what chalk plays are being talked about the most, and the least.
Carson Palmer and Philip Rivers are the highest projected players based on their price this week. They also should be the highest owned in GPP tourneys. They appear to be cash game safe as the majority of people will be on them. If you are playing a GPP it would be worthwhile to either look elsewhere or try to stack them with their lesser owned receiving options.
People still seem to be very skeptical about trusting Andrew Luck this week even though he is playing in the highest over/under game of the week. For this reason he makes a great GPP play and I will have exposure to him in a number of GPP lineups. I also like Drew Brees in this game. Their social buzz and projected ownership is way lower then it should be. Multiple stacks of both are in order for your GPP lineups. Also going with the lower owned Quarterback allows you to roster some higher owned running backs if you are looking to still play the Gurley/Freeman stack.
Matt Ryan is also being discussed less then he should be. One of these weeks Freeman isn’t going to run for 150 yards and 3 TDs. One of these weeks it will be the Ryan/Julio show and I plan on having some exposure to them until this does happen. Does it happen on the road this week against a back up QB? Maybe not but that is why his ownership is so low. This stack is definitely worth a GPP flyer or two.
Two cheaper QBs that I am liking are Derek Carr and Jameis Winston.
Let’s get the injury news out of the way right away. No Dion Lewis per early reports and no Melvin Gordon either. Adrian Peterson is questionable with an illness which is the reason for some of his buzz.
It appears to be Todd Gurley’s world the rest of us are just living in it. His buzz has been tremendous this week. I would be shocked to see a head to head cash game lineup that didn’t contain Gurley and Freeman in it. The only question for GPPs is who has the higher ownership percentage Gurley or Freeman. This probably depends on which site you are looking at. In saying all that a high owned running back is the hardest position to fade. So much of what we look at with running backs is based on volume and it is easy to predict a massive amount of volume for both of these backs. The problem with Gurley is he has not gotten into the endzone yet this season. I think that changes this week. I will have some exposure to both backs in GPPs still. I will have more of Gurley then Freeman. They will not be rostered on more then 25% of my lineups however.
After those two it seems like everyone else is flying under the radar. I do like Lamar Miller and Latavius Murray.
Danny Woodhead, LeGarrette Blount, and Matt Jones should see a nice bump in ownership due to the injury situations. I do like all three but will probably have more of Jones and Woodhead then Blount. I have also heard some buzz on Brandon Oliver and min priced. He makes for a decent GPP flyer in a couple spots.
I am avoiding the Dallas backfield situation. If you know how to play this situation then you are a better DFS player then I am.
Deandre Hopkins and Eric Decker have a ton of social buzz generated this week. Deandre Hopkins should be close to the highest owned WR if not the highest. I am not 100% sure where Decker will come in at. I think we see a nice bump up from the ownership we saw on Thursday. I do like Decker and am fading Deandre for the most part. I am pivoting to Julio or Odell. You will most likely find me in the fetal position Sunday afternoon but I firmly believe in taking a stand somewhere.
Martavis Bryant was the highest owned WR from the Thursday slate. He also has one of the highest social buzz. I love his big play potential but am not that impressed with what I saw from Landry Jones. Bryant can break a big play any given week but I do not think he does this week.
Two cheaper guys I like are Michael Crabtree and Danny Amendola. Even with Lafell most likely playing I think Amendola is in for a number of targets facing off against Buster Skrine. Edelman gets the revis island treatment and Lafell should see lots of Cromartie. It should be an Amendola and Gronk week.
Pretty ugly slate for Tight Ends. I thought Kelce was sneaky if Maclin sat but it looks like he will play. I still think Kelce is worth a closer look as a pivot off of Antonio Gates. The GTD on Gates should bring his ownership down significantly from the Thursday slate though. On a late swap site you definitely have some options but I would not want to lock him in on an early lock site.
I think Gronk is targeted quite a bit today and don’t mind paying up for him.
Jordan Reed could also see a number of targets.