I really was loving my chances after round 1 at the Shriners last week. That is until the 2nd round when Will Wilcox destroyed any chance I had at a big finish. Not salty though, still love you Will! Time to bounce back this week in Malaysia at the CIMB Classic hosted at the Kuala Lumper Golf & Country Club.
The Kuala Lumper CC is a short par 72 course that measures just under 7,000 yards. A few things to keep in mind for this week: first, is that this event has only been played at this course for the past 2 years so any tournament history prior is obsolete. Secondly, because of the time difference in Malaysia, lineups lock on Wednesday night so be sure to get your rosters in early this week. Lastly, there are only 78 golfers that will tee up this week and that makes this a no cut event so keep that in mind while constructing your rosters this week!
Par 4 Scoring
As always, SG:T2G, SG:Putting, and Course History will all be sprinkled in to help us figure out which golfers to target from week to week.
Odds To Win: 6.5 – 1
Expected Ownership: 15.5%
The only reason I don’t think Stenson’s ownership rises above 20% is because he is priced so much more than the entire field. That being said, it is hard not to roster a guy coming in with 4 straight top 10s, 3 of which were 2nd/T2 finishes. Stenson sets up perfectly for this course ranking 1st in GIR percentage, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, and 16th in SG:Putting last season. He checks all the boxes this week and he is my top play in tournaments and cash games if you choose to play those this week.
Odds To Win: 14-1
Expected Ownership: 21%
Any time Matsuyama is in the field, he should be rostered. So far this season, he ranks 5th in SG:T2G and is top 20 in both GIR Percentage and Par 3 Scoring. He is coming off a T17 at the Frys Open and finished T21 here last year. Make sure he is on your radar this week.
Odds To Win: 25-1
Expected Ownership: 10.2%
What can I say? I am a sucker for Paul Casey…but c’mon! The guy is an absolute animal and always seems to be overlooked by everyone. Casey ranked 5th in GIR Percentage last season and top 10 in both SG:T2G and Par 4 Scoring. His length should give him a slight advantage on some holes but it is his accuracy and ball striking that should set him apart this week. I love me some Casey this week.
Odds To Win: 25-1
Expected Ownership: 7.5%
Danny Lee is another guy that I really like that I feel is somewhat underrated in DFS. Lee is a great putter which should help greatly this week as he ranked in the top 25 in SG:Putting last season. He also ranked 2nd in Par 3 Scoring and 26th in Par 4 Scoring so he sets up very nicely for this course. I also think because he is priced $1500-$2000 more than we are used to seeing him, it should keep his ownership percentage relatively low but I think he will produce enough scoring opportunities to pay off his salary.
Odds To Win: 75-1
Expected Ownership: 6.3%
You can expect Chappell to be low owned this week after burning a decent amount of owners at the Frys season opener. That being said, he bounced back to make the cut at the Shriners last week and while it wasn’t a great finish he did make a decent amount of birdies mixed in with quite a few bogeys. If he can eliminate the small mistakes that hindered him last weekend, I could see him in contention this week as he has a great course history here with back to back top 25s in the past 2 years.
Odds To Win: 150-1
Expected Ownership: 5%
It is a little crazy to think of Pat Perez as a punt play but after missing back to back cuts to start this season, here he sits in the bottom tier of golfers this week. That being said, Perez was a top 25 mad man and a cut making machine last season. I have full faith that he will get it together sooner rather than later. He doesn’t rank super high in any particular categories but he is solid in GIR Percentage and he is a good scrambler. Being that there is not cut this weekend, Perez becomes an elite punt play and look for him to get it going this week.
Guys I’m Fading: Ryan Moore, Adam Scott, Gary Woodland
My Winner: I really want to say Stenson but because every obvious choice has got burned to start this season, I am going with my main man Paul Casey!!! His length, accuracy, and ball striking will make up for his lack of putting and we will get our first non-rookie win this PGA Tour season.
Best of luck this week, Bring home the Bacon!!!!
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