The NBA Daily Plays for Wednesday, November 4th breaks down the best Stud, Value and GPP plays at each position for FanDuel and DraftKings daily fantasy sports contests. The Stud & Value plays should be considered relatively chalky and should be safe for cash games. The GPP plays dig a little deeper to hopefully find some low owned talent who could pay off big in a Guaranteed Prize Pool contest. We have a ton of huge GPPs around the industry. It will be interesting to see what sort of overlay happens across the major contests. Lets take a look at the game lines and then go over my favorite plays for this massive Wednesday NBA slate.
Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors (FD $10,800, DK $10,100) –
Looking back over Curry’s past matchups against the Clippers we see no real ceiling breaking performances occur. Chris Paul has always been known for playing exceptional defense. In fact in 4 games last year he only averaged 32.9 FanDuel points per game. Looking over his game log he has traded incredible performances with rather average performances in the 30-40 point FanDuel range. For this reason he should maybe be more of a GPP play but I think you have to have exposure to him. The Clippers should keep this game close and Curry will see his full complement of minutes.
Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder (FD $10,800, DK $10,500) –
Westbrook is the point guard I am paying up for today. Lowry simply does not have the defensive prowess to keep up with him. This game should turn into an offensive shoot out if the Raptors can keep it close. There is plenty of value at other positions to be able to fit Westbrook into your lineups.
George Hill, Indiana Pacers (FD $6,400, DK $6,200) –
Hill started off blazing in the 1st quarter last night. He did cool off toward the end of the game but still finished with 38.2 FanDuel points. He had a season low 12 points but the 6 rebounds and 4 steals definitely helped his stat line. I am not worried about him on the second leg of a back to back this early in the season. His matchup tonight is to enticing to ignore. Hill is definitely a salary relief play.
John Wall, Washington Wizards (FD $9,300, DK $9,400) –
John wall will definitely be off of most peoples radar tonight. Tough matchup and a low over under game with other high priced options in much better spots means we should see a very low ownership level. Still, I think he has a very safe floor of 40 FanDuel Points with the potential to exceed that. He did put up 54.5 FanDuel points on the Spurs last year so exceeding his value is definitely attainable.
James Harden, Houston Rockets (FD $9,900, DK $10,000) –
Harden is always in play in a fast paced matchup. I do not think anyone on the Magic can slow him down. Fournier has been playing solid defensively but has not had to matchup with anyone close to the offensive skillset of James Harden. He did have another salary reduction and is now $900 cheaper then where FanDuel started his regular season salary at. At the reduced price he should have an easier time meeting value.
Kent Bazemore, Atlanta Hawks (FD $4,700, DK $4,200) –
Bazemore is still seeing a healthy 30 minutes a game and has been paying off his salary all season. He is now $1,000 more expensive then where he started the year after another salary hike. Still with his consistent minutes and the matchup that he is expected to face he should have no problems meeting value once again.
Evan Fournier, Orlando Magic (FD $4,500, DK $4,400) –
Fournier is simply mis priced around the industry still for the amount of minutes and role he has for the Magic. He is seeing 35-40 minutes a game. At this point he might be the most mispriced player in NBA DFS right now. Coming off the back to back does not scare me. Harden like always will be much more interested in scoring then in playing any defense on Fournier.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks (FD $6,800, DK $6,900) –
Giannis is one of my favorite players to roster in DFS. He can accumulate stats in all statistical categories meaning he has a very safe floor with huge upside. His matchup is great against the 76ers. The only question is if they can keep it close enough so that Giannis can get his full complement of minutes.
Hollis Thompson, Philadelphia 76ers (FD $3,900, DK $3,700) –
Hollis was bumped from his starting role on Monday with the return of Robert Covington. Yet he still played 31 minutes which is consistent with the time he was getting when he was starting. If they continue to try to limit Covingtons minutes then Thompson could be a sneaky value play that no one is looking at due to him not starting. Also if he is a reserve role he won’t spend as much time matched up against Giannis and should see the weaker second unit. If this game does get out of hand then Hollis should get some garbage time opportunity as well.
***Editors Note: Covington did not travel with the 76ers which makes Hollis Thompson and Nic Stauskas strong value plays.***
Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs (FD $7,900, DK $7,800) –
Readers are going to start thinking I am nuts for mentioning so many players from the Wizards/Spurs game. I do think there is some hidden value in this game even with the slow pace and low over/under. Kawhi has potentially the best floor of any NBA player in DFS right now. The upside will only come in close contested games which I expect tonight to be. I think he pushes close to the 50 FanDuel Points tonight.
Rudy Gay, Sacramento Kings (FD $7,900, DK $7,600) –
Looks like Cousins will sit again tonight which means Gay should be called upon to shoulder a lot more of the offensive load. This idea really didn’t manifest itself last night but on the 2nd night of a back to back in a very positive matchup I think Gay takes over this game and puts up his first monster performance of the year.
Al-Farouq Aminu, Portland TrailBlazers (FD $5,700, DK $5,500) –
The minutes have been consistent for Aminu. When he gets consistent minutes he has performed well. He does have a tough matchup squaring off against Gordon Hayward but he should still be in line to meet value.
Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder (FD $10,000, DK $9,500) –
Stacking Durant and Westbrook when they played the Magic last week won some people quite a bit of money. More often then not it will not work out like that but it is still a negative correlation play that we can consider from time to time in GPPs. The upside of Durant is obvious but he will be matching up against Demarre Carroll who is one of the best defenders in the league. Durant can really only be considered a GPP option because of this.
Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks (FD $7,900, DK $7.900) –
Millsap is my favorite stud Power Forward to pay up for in cash games. I know I keep recommending players on the 2nd leg of their back to back but it is still early in the season and the NBA schedule is spread out enough that I don’t think this will make as big of an impact on DFS performances like it did in years past. Millsap plays in one of the lowest totaled over/under games of the night. I do not think Thad Young will be able to slow him down and I think the Hawks try to exploit this matchup all night long.
Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia 76ers (FD $7,500, DK $7,000) –
Nerlens is the type of player I love to roster in DFS. He is able to accumulate stats in every category which sets himself up with a very nice floor every night. This is also the same reason why he has such a high ceiling. If he has a big night and gets 5+ blocks along with some scoring and rebounding he is in for a monster GPP performance. He should see some Jabari Parker who won’t be able to keep up with him yet. I love his matchup no matter who Milwaukee tries to slow him down with.
Markieff Morris, Phoenix Suns (FD $5,900, DK $6,200) –
Markieff has seen his pricing drop from the start of the season but he did get a $100 increase last game. He is one of my favorite value plays as he is seeing some serious run if he stays out of foul trouble. With no Cousins he should be matching up against Kosta Koufos or WCS. Both matchups I favor Markieff in.
Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks (FD $4,800, DK $4,800) –
Coming off of his 13 pt 14 rebound performance against the Spurs on Monday, Kristaps should be a popular play tonight. He is listed as a GTD but I am seeing him as probable on most sites. He will be matching up against Kevin Love and even if this game gets out of hand he should be in line for some garbage time production.
Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers (FD $10,000, DK $9,600) –
I love Griffin in this fast paced game. The only thing that makes me pause is the matchup against Draymond Green. He is the best big man defender in the NBA. He has made other superstars look rather ordinary already this year. I am hoping that this matchup causes his ownership to drop so I can get some shares of him in GPP and hope he goes off in this fast paced game.
Greg Monroe, Milwaukee Bucks (FD $8,200, DK $8,100) –
Again, the only thing that scares me with Monroe is if this game gets out of hand. If he sees his 35+ minutes that he has been averaging then he should have no problems paying off his price tag. In a GPP I can see fading him due to the possibility of this one getting out of hand.
Nikola Vucevic, Orlando Magic (FD $8,000, DK $7,700) –
I love Vucevic tonight and think that he will be asked to score in order to keep the Magic in this game. Some people might be scared off by the Dwight Howard matchup but I do not think Howard matches up with him a whole lot and if he does Vuc will just float out to the 3 point line to pull him away from the basket.
Kosta Koufos, Sacramento Kings (FD $3,800, DK $4,000) –
Cousins should sit one more game and Kosta should see at least 25+ minutes tonight. His rebounds were a little down yesterday which is the only reason he didn’t have a solid DFS performance. I think he grabs a few more rebounds tonight and should be able to pay off his salary easily. He is a solid play as I think punting the center position is definitely a viable option tonight.
Jonas Valanciunas, Toronto Raptors (FD $6,200, DK $6,000) –
Valanciunas always seems to fly a bit under the radar. He has a great matchup tonight in a fast paced game. I think Toronto looks to exploit this matchup and potentially slow the game down by working the ball through Jonas. He should have plenty of opportunities to produce and I think he makes a great GPP play as not many people will be on him.