It’s that that time of the year again! The time where you need a prayer answered to get through Amen corner unscathed…The time when green is a preferred jacket color….The time when Augusta, Georgia would seem to be the capital of the entire world. Ladies and Gentlemen, the 2016 Masters is upon us.
Augusta National is a par 72 course that measures 7,445 yards with four par 3s and four par 5s. The top 50 players and ties will play the weekend along with any golfers within 10 strokes of the lead. More importantly, the Masters marks the first major of the season and along with that, DraftKings first PGA Millionaire Maker of 2016!!!
For just $20 and a dream, you can become the next DraftKings Millionaire by winning this tournament that will feature a $4,000,000 prize pool. Yes, that is six 0’s….In case you live under a rock and don’t already have a DraftKings account, sign up here! But in order to take down the field in such a large tournament, we are going to have to be near perfection. To help us in our quest for the big prize, let’s examine how ‘BrettMarino’ did it when he won the 2015 Masters Millionaire Maker tournament.
First things first, you not only must have the winner in your lineup but all 6 of your golfers need to show up in a big way. As you can see, he had Spieth (Winner), Mickelson/Rose (T2), and Hoffman (T9) all finish in the top 10 along with Na and Henley finishing in the top 25. This should give you an idea of how to approach your roster construction this year. I’m not going to roster “cut makers” for this event. If you cannot see your golfer having the upside to win or at the very least top 25, then I strongly suggest you reconsider.
Another thing that I wanted to point out is the ownership percentage of his roster. Do not be afraid to get chalky this week. With such a strong field and so many great options, there will be ways to differentiate your lineups even with some great golfers. Reason being, with such a strong field there will be at least a few guys that go overlooked this week similar to Rose last year.
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW……
As always, SG:T2G, SG:Putting, and Course History will all be sprinkled in to help us figure out which golfers to target from week to week. I will be placing more emphasis on course history as opposed to other events this season.
Rory Mcllroy $12,500
Odds To Win: 7 ½ – 1
Expected Ownership: 7%
Things are shaping up for Rory to be criminally under-owned for the Masters. As the most expensive golfer, it will be easy for people to want to fade him and save a couple hundred to over one thousand dollars by rostering Spieth, Scott, Day, Bubba, or Rickie. Aside from where he is priced, Rory’s form coming in has been inconsistent. With just one top 10 so far this season and his inability to finish at the WGC-Cadillac, he will most likely end up being the lowest owned golfer of this top tier even with his strong name value. That being said, he has shown flashes of dominance this season and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him put together four great rounds at Augusta making him an excellent play for the Milly maker.
Jordan Spieth $12,300
Odds To Win: 7-1
Expected Ownership: 13%
When Spieth won at the Hyundai TOC back in January, it appeared that he was going to have another excellent year highlighted by lots of trophy pictures. Since that win though, he has yet to crack the top 15 and had the blow up 79 round at the Northern Trust. So I could see his ownership being diminished somewhat but because he is the defending champ, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it in the 15-20% range. He ranks first on Tour in Par 4 scoring and if he is putting like we know he is capable of, watch out! Remember, Jordan had a share of the lead going into Sunday back in 2014. He then followed that up with his 2015 win last season so he is more than comfortable at Augusta, regardless of how you think his form is coming in.
Adam Scott $11,900
Odds To Win: 12-1
Expected Ownership: 17%
It should surprise nobody that Scott will be one of the highest owned golfers for the Masters. Aside from being a former winner here in 2013, he is the hottest golfer on Tour right now and you can’t even really argue it. He ranks first on Tour in Par 5 Scoring, 2nd in Par 3 Scoring, 2nd in SG:T2G, and 6th in GIR %. Starting with the Northern Trust which correlates with Augusta, his results are as follows: T2, Win, Win, T12. Is that a world tour or your girl’s tour?
Jason Day $11,600
Odds To Win: 8-1
Expected Ownership: 12%
Jason reminded us just how good he is by his performance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, in case you forgot. One thing I noticed while watching Day a lot last season is that when his confidence is up, he is nearly unbeatable. Sure, every golfer plays better when they are confident but it is a completely different level with him. Just go back and watch the events he was winning or in contention especially after coming off a good week prior. Puffed chest, nostrils flaring, and very animated is when he is playing his best golf. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take down Rory and go on to win the Match play tomorrow (currently beating Brooks while I’m writing this). If he does, his ownership should spike but either way I am really liking a confident Jason Day on quite a few of my lineups.
Bubba Watson $11,400
Odds To Win: 10-1
Expected Ownership: 18%
Bubba is another guy that has been very hot as of late. He won the Northern Trust Open and followed it up with a solo second at the WGC-Cadillac Championship. He is a two-time winner here at Augusta in 2012 and 2014. He is ranked 1st on Tour in SG:T2G, GIR %, and is 13th in Par 4 Scoring. The Masters has been won by left handed golfers 6 of the last 12 times so he also has that going for him if you’re into that kind of thing. Love me some Bubba as always.
Rickie Fowler $10,900
Odds To Win: 18-1
Expected Ownership: 17%
Rickie is also playing some phenomenal golf this season. He has been in the mix in almost every event that he has played in 2016 with 5 top 10s this season. He ranks 7th in both SG:T2G and SG:Putting, 1st in Par 5 Scoring, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, top 10 in Scrambling, and top 20 in Approaches from 150-175 yards. He had a T5 here in 2014 and a T12 last season. You can expect him to be right there with Scott and Bubba as the highest owned golfers this week. Not to sound cliche but I could see this being “Rickie’s year” and I’m going to have a ton of exposure to him for all of the above reasons.
The rest of the 9K and up guys…..
Phil Mickelson $10,500 – Winner here in 2004, 06, and 2010 along with multiple top 3 finishes including a T2 last season. Phil is playing some good golf this year highlighted by three top 5s and you can bet that he will bring his A game for Augusta. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him make some noise.
Dustin Johnson $10,200 – Honestly, I just can’t trust him. His inconsistency and failure to close on Sundays have me looking elsewhere in this stacked field. Maybe throw one DJ lineup if you’re feeling crazy. Aside from that, don’t waste your money.
Justin Rose $9,900 – Rose just continues to play good golf week in and week out and is mostly low owned considering his talent. I expect him to be under 10% but not like the 3% he was last season. Four straight top 20s coming in as well.
Henrik Stenson $9,600 – Stenson is a solid, all-around pick but I don’t see him winning it. He will probably get you a top 20 maybe even top 10 but I will probably only have exposure in cash games.
Charl Schwartzel $9,400 – Former winner at Augusta in 2011 and has been playing great golf overseas… finally carried over to the U.S. with the win at the Valspar Championship.
Hideki Matsuyama $9,100 – Got the W at the Waste Management Open in February and always shows up in majors. He will likely be another pretty popular pick assuming no more worries about the hip.
The 8K – 9K range:
Louis Oosthuizen $8,800 – Always shows up well in majors…. Solo 2nd here in 2012 along with back to back top 25s last two seasons. He is coming off a T7 at the Valspar and it looks like he is going to take 2nd in the Dell Match Play.
Branden Grace $8,600 – Another guy that lingers around in majors but I would rather target him at the U.S. Open rather than the Masters. It could be that Grace’s missed cut at the Honda hurt me so bad but I just can’t see a scenario where he wins at Augusta this year. Also, Bovada currently has him at 65/1 while Louis is 33/1 and Brandt is 55/1 so not exactly much of a value for his price based off Vegas odds.
Brandt Snedeker $8,500 – Snedeker responded with a red hot start to this season after a shaky end to last year. He has three top 10s this season including his Win at the Farmers and has decent course history here. He is ranked in the top 20 in Scrambling and top 10 in Par 4 Scoring.
Sergio Garcia $8,400 – Has the skill set to win here, but it’s Sergio so he hasn’t of course. He does have multiple top 25s here but has never finished better than T4. He is ranked 3rd in SG:T2G and Par 4 Scoring. Followed his solo 2nd at the Honda with a T11 at the WGC-Cadillac.
Patrick Reed $8,300 – Form has been spotty but still has 6 top 10s this season including a T7 at the Valspar. He is ranked 7th in Scrambling and top 25 in Par 4 scoring. He finished T22 here last season.
Jimmy Walker $8,200 – Finished top 5 at the Farmers and solo 6th at the WGC-Cadillac. Had a T8 here in 2014 and is ranked 3rd in Par 5 Scoring this season.
Brooks Koepka $8,100 – Finished T33 in his Augusta debut last season. He is ranked in the top 10 in Par 4 Scoring and has three top 10s this season.
Danny Willett $8,000 – Should be a semi-popular pick as he is a little underpriced. He makes a lot of noise at the WGC events and this season has been no different so far. Top 3 finishes in 2 of his 3 starts. T38 here last year in his debut at Augusta National.
Key players under 8K:
Paul Casey $7,700 – Casey has five top 20s at Augusta including a T6 last season. He ranks in the top 10 in GIR % and top 25 in Par 4 Scoring. He had back to back top 10s in March at the WGC-Cadillac and Arnold Palmer Invitational. It will be difficult to try to fade Casey at this price for me.
Zach Johnson $7,600 – Former winner here in 2007 but his only other top 10 came last season with his T9. He is ranked in the top 25 in GIR % and had a solo 5th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Justin Thomas $7,600 – This will be Thomas’ debut here at Augusta but he is coming in with some nice form. He finished top 3 at the Honda and a top 20 at the Valspar Championship. I don’t plan on being overweight by any means but because of his upside, he is worth some exposure if playing multiple entries.
Bill Haas $7,500 – Haas has four top 10s this season and most recently finished with a P2 at the Valspar after losing in a playoff to Charl Schwartzel. He has three straight top 20s at Augusta and is ranked 12th on Tour in Scrambling. Haas is all but a must play at this price.
Ian Poulter $7,200 – Poulter has played the Masters 11 times and has finished worse than T33 only once. His best finish was a T6 last season. His form isn’t great this season but because of the strong course history, he is worth some shares at this price.
Kevin Na $6,900 – Na has played the Masters five times and has two T12s. He has 4 top 10s this season and most recently a top 25 at Valspar. He is ranked in the top 10 in Approaches from 150-175 yards and is 3rd in Par 4 Scoring. Na should be one of the most popular sub 7k golfers.
Ryan Moore $6,800 – Moore has three top 15s at Augusta including T12 last season. He finished third at Valspar, top 10 in Phoenix and at the Northern Trust and is ranked in the top 5 in Par 3 Scoring.
Hunter Mahan $6,600 – Mahan has played the Masters 9 times and has finished in the top 30 or better 6 of those starts. His most recent finish is a T9 here last season and he is ranked 21st on Tour in Par 4 Scoring.
Angel Cabrera $6,500 – Cabrera has terrible form but that has never stopped him from showing up at Augusta. Of the 16 starts here, he has 10 top 25s including a solo 2nd in 2013 and his Win in 2009.
Fred Couples $6,000 – Fred Couples has played the Masters 31 times! He has only finished outside of the top 40 just 3 times. He has 19 top 20 finishes including his win in 1992. For anyone who thinks he is too old to make noise anymore, guess again. Prior to last season, Couples had 5 straight top 20s.
Smylie Kaufman $6,000 – Kaufman has 7 top 25s this season including his win at the Shriners back in October. Smylie is coming in with pretty good form but I feel like this is a trap play. I have already heard people buzzing about his price when the prices for the Masters were released. Being that this is his debut at Augusta and he has struggled at similar style courses, it leaves me a bit skeptical. Kaufman will most likely be a complete fade for me when Couples is the same price #OldSchool.
Vijay Singh $5,700 – Former winner here in 2000 and does have nice history but most of that is from many moons ago. Singh hasn’t finished better than T27 in the past 7 years here. Going along with the strategy we laid out in the beginning, he is not worth a roster spot even for the savings in price.
My Winner: BUBBBBBAAAAAA
Best of luck this week to everyone…Bring home the Million!!!
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