Week 4 is upon us and I have to say it feels like this season is just flying by! With this article I will be taking a look at some contrarian plays each week that we should take into consideration based off of all the talk about certain plays. We want to locate some pivots in order to hopefully take advantage of some of the duds that the popular plays will put up throughout the season. I will do my best to give you a few players from both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Let’s get started at the QB position as there are a number of guys in play this weekend with either extremely positive match-ups or who have way too cheap of a price tag to be ignored. For various reasons, guys like Philip Rivers, Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco are getting a ton of love. Let’s take a look at some guys we can pivot to at their price points.
Philip Rivers – Rivers is sitting at $8500 on FD and $6900 on DK. His DK price is really tough to get away from however I love the idea of going to either Matt Ryan at $7000 or Ben Roethlisberger at $7100. Both QB’s are at home against defenses that many of us would consider strong. Ryan has been extremely solid to start this season and we know the Carolina CB’s are very inexperienced. On FD, Rivers is one of the top QB’s in terms of price and while you could definitely pay up to Cam Newton for $9300, I think you can look at Ben Roethlisberger at $8400 or even Carson Palmer at $8000. Matt Ryan is also in play at $7900. My suggested play is to pay up to Cam Newton.
Kirk Cousins – Cousins is sitting at $7600 on FD and $6500 on DK. FD has some pretty tight pricing at QB, however there are a few guys that I would consider. Trevor Siemian is $7400 and is coming off of a monster performance and while I am hesitant with the traveling to the east coast, I can’t ignore how well he has played. On DK I am looking to go from Cousins to either Russell Wilson at $6600 or down to Carson Palmer at $6300. A lot of people are jumping off of the Palmer wagon and I think this is a great time to get on as he has a chance to get right, at home.
Joe Flacco – Flacco is sitting at $7700 on FD and just $5900 on DK for this weekend’s home game against Oakland. On FD I would go one of two places, either Carson Palmer at $8000 or, if he is deemed the starter, Jimmy Garoppolo at $7600. On DK I am looking at going to three guys and those are Brock Osweiler at $5800, Alex Smith at $5600 or Trevor Siemian at $5400. Flacco’s price is extremely attractive on DK so it is going to be tougher to get away from, however I think Alex Smith offers an interesting ceiling against the Steelers.
Next we take a look at the RB position and we see a few guys that are going to be very popular this weekend as they have either excellent match-ups or they are just too cheap to ignore. The RB’s that are getting talked about the most are Le’Veon Bell, Melvin Gordon, Jordan Howard and Carlos Hyde. Let’s take a look at each of these guys and find some pivots around them
Le’Veon Bell – Bell returns from his suspension and people are going to be all over him as Tomlin has made comments about feeding Bell the ball. Bell sits at $8300 on FD and $7500 on DK. The obvious pivot off of Bell is going to be David Johnson, however I think he will be higher owned as well so I am looking to go to Lamar Miller at $8200 on FD and $7000 on DK.
Melvin Gordon – Gordon might be the highest owned player across the board this week as he gets a dream match-up against a Saints defense that was just torched by every RB the Falcons threw out there. Gordon sits at $7600 on FD and just $6300 on DK. On FD, three guys stand out as pivots and they are LeGarrette Blount at $7500, CJ Anderson at $7900 and DeMarco Murray at $7300. Of those three, I will be going up to CJ Anderson as I think he is involved in the pass game a bit this week. On DK I am going to use either Anderson at $6500 or Mark Ingram who sits at $5900.
Carlos Hyde – Hyde is $6800 on FD and just $4200 on DK. On FD, I will be looking to use Mark Ingram, who is also $6800. On DK, I will be looking to pay up to $4400 for Isaiah Crowell in what is an intriguing match-up against a DEF that is going to be pretty popular.
Jordan Howard – Howard gets to step into all the work he is able to handle in the Bears backfield. Howard sits at $5600 on FD and $3700 on DK. I am looking to pivot on both sites to one of two players, Cameron Artis-Payne and Dwayne Washington. CAP is in a great spot against a pretty bad run defense and Washington should see double digit carries for the Lions, in a game they should have the lead in late.
The WR position is a tough one because there are generally a lot more playable options with teams using so many 3 WR sets throughout a game. I believe the following are going to be extremely popular: Antonio Brown, Marvin Jones and Tyrell Williams.
Antonio Brown – Brown will always be the most expensive WR on the board and for good reason. However we have seen this year that he IS in fact human. He sits at $9400 on FD and $9700 on DK. My pivot is going to be DeAndre Hopkins against a depleted Titans’ secondary. Hopkins is $8600 on FD and $8400 on DK.
Marvin Jones – Jones was everybody’s darling last weekend and he didn’t disappoint so I imagine he is going to be just as popular this weekend. He is $7600 on FD and $7300 on DK. On both sites I love the idea of going to two guys who really disappointed last week, hoping for a comeback. Those two guys are Kelvin Benjamin and Larry Fitzgerald.
Tyrell Williams – Williams is $6400 on FD and $4400 on DK. Williams is a guy I have been all about all season long and while I love him in this one, I think this game is going to be extremely highly owned. On FD I am looking to go with Jamison Crowder at $6000 or Golden Tate at $6200. On DK I am going to look to use Crowder at $4200, Quincy Enunwa at $4400 or Cole Beasley at $3900. Beasley will most likely start to become chalky at some point, however I think Williams and Pryor are going to be more popular at this price point.
That brings us to the TE position and at this position we have Jordan Reed, Zach Miller and Hunter Henry getting all kinds of love. I think TE is a pretty deep position this weekend as right now I am looking at using 10+ different TE’s in spots.
Jordan Reed – Reed is $7500 on FD and $6300 on DK. When it comes to paying up on both sites, I will be looking to use Greg Olsen more than Jordan Reed as I just feel like Olsen is playing better. Olsen sits at $7900 on FD and $6000 on DK.
Zach Miller – Miller looked to be the only one in sync with Hoyer last week and now faces a Lions team that has been destroyed by TE’s. Miller is $5000 on FD and just $2700 on DK. I will look to move to Cameron Brate on FD for $5300 in a matchup that I think is better than people will think due to it being against Denver. On DK I will look to go up to Coby Fleener at $3200 or Jesse James at $3100. James is my first choice as it sounds like Eli Rogers is out, so Ben may rely on his TE a bit more.
Hunter Henry – Henry is the minimum on FD at $4500 and he sits at $2700 on DK. On FD it is going to be extremely tough to get away from him, however you can definitely use Jesse James at $4500 in his spot. On DK you can pivot to the same guys as you would from Zach Miller or you could go to Jace Amaro at $2600 if Delanie Walker is out.
When it comes to defenses, the obvious plays seem to be Washington, Arizona and New England. While I think all three are spectacular options, they are going to be very popular and I think Defense is the best way to differentiate and separate yourself as just about any D can pick up a TD one way or another.
Arizona – Arizona sits at $5300 on FD and $3900 on DK. While I think they are the best defense to play this weekend, I think they are going to be nearly as popular as Washington. I would look to use Houston at $4900 on FD. On DK I would use either Seattle at $3800 or Denver at $3700.
New England – NE Sits at $4500 on FD and $3300 on DK. It is going to be tough to get off of the Patriots at their price point on FD, however I would look at either Baltimore or the Jets at $4400. On DK, I would look to use the Texans at $3200 or pay down to the Jets at $2800.
Washington – Washington sits around New England’s price point so the same options are there as well as a sneaky one that I think I will use in Carolina at $3400 on DK. I know it may be crazy but we do know that Matt Ryan rarely is able to keep up stellar play and with the WR’s banged up, I could see a game where the offense struggles.
There you have it everybody, this week’s edition of the 2016 NFL Pivots article. I hope you enjoyed what I had to say and make sure you follow me on the Twitter! Make sure to leave some comments below or on twitter and let me know how bad I am, or if I am lucky, how great I have been doing! Best of luck DFS’ers and may you receive the “You have won” email on Monday/Tuesday!